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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

F64426BC-3C5B-4EAB-9354-0FA0A9FEA472.jpeg

***The map posted is what we call the 50th percentile forecast (meaning most guidance and outputs lead to this outcome). Keep in mind it is also very possible with this storm that the 25th percentile verifies (cut these numbers in half) or the 75th percentile verifies (double these numbers)***

Here's what we captioned it with.. Let's see where we go from here.. 

more in line with what I have been thinking all along, too many uncertain variables, mainly temps, the lack of a strong high in Quebec is a key, phasing is also key, who knows can always go up, but I'd hedge down if anything right now.

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My zones have one to three Monday night and 6 to 10 Tuesday and then straight up forecast for snow Tuesday night and part of Wednesday implying the more significant accumulation.  I don’t see much of the model output that’s bullish for more than a foot up here as the zones apply but GYX seems pretty bullish actually. They even invoked the 2013 and 2015 storms

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56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When I looped h5 on the 06z euro, I def expected heavier QPF than what it showed. But it was a step down from 00z. 
 

It’s going to be a significant storm, but the difference between a HECS type blizzard and a fairly heavy late season snow event (but nothing earth shattering) is going to come down to if we have those truly exceptional rates for hours on end. 

Sell the exceptional rates for hours on end stuff and certainly don’t forecast for it 

Unless this tickles NW more consolidated 

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oh-oh,
Mets are playing conservative and for good reason IMHO. The BM track is becoming less likely. Not a perfect capture, stall and stack. Indications leaning toward by the time it does consolidate the SFC center will be at the LAT of BOS, the moisture will have been displaced to the E. so even if the BL cools to support snow it will be of no consequence, also the 40-60mph. gusts from the E toasting the coastal plain. W New England Ctrl NYS parts of the Berks will cash-in on the UL dynamics.
Put your horses back in the stalls. This is far from resolved and can change on 6hr intervals.    

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Sell the exceptional rates for hours on end stuff and certainly don’t forecast for it 

For now we sell, but it’s silly to completely ignore. There’s enough guidance that shows exceptional rates and the dynamical support aloft. We’ll see today if more guidance trends toward that or toward more mundane. 

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Just now, tavwtby said:

more in line with what I have been thinking all along, too many uncertain variables, mainly temps, the lack of a strong high in Quebec is a key, phasing is also key, who knows can always go up, but I'd hedge down if anything right now.

Yea its just a first call we wanted to get out there for socials. We'll do a map with exact numbers later tonight, theres just incredible uncertainty right now..the storm has a lot of potential so the ceiling is high. Obviously the better up and in you are the better and Winsted at 1K FT is a great place to be right now. 10 is really the bottom of the range, you have the potential to see 2 feet. 

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2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

My zones have one to three Monday night and 6 to 10 Tuesday and then straight up forecast for snow Tuesday night and part of Wednesday implying the more significant accumulation.  I don’t see much of the model output that’s bullish for more than a foot up here as the zones apply but GYX seems pretty bullish actually. They even invoked the 2013 and 2015 storms

Yeah Gray wording leaned to the bullish side but they did caveat that the 2013 and 2015 storms had a different antecedent airmass.  It's a big difference in the upcoming IMO. 

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4 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

The 1888 blizzard had arctic temperatures.  NYC was down to 6F at one point. The city started out as rain. Transitioning to freezing rain and then snow.

Yeah, I mean maybe he said that because this storm does a loop de loop like 1888, but it's a totally different air mass and the system doesn't have that bent back north/south oriented front feature.

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Of course you will

I love this board 

had great time skiing yesterday 

If the 0z and 18z euro Ensembles looked like their OP I would be on board but both OP’s were on far western envelope . That’s where I stand confidently for now  , couldn’t care who likes it or not . Euro has been tickling SE with best dynamics . Still time for changes .

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FWIW HRRR would be a crushing for CT, doesn't go out far enough out east.. But probably the same with that look.. But GOD I hate that model.. It's like a bad addiction I can't quit lol 

EDIT massive deform band forms out in EMASS and rotates through for all of us, wow.. what a weenie run.. only half way through the storm lol with 10-20" in all of western CT.. 

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Yea its just a first call we wanted to get out there for socials. We'll do a map with exact numbers later tonight, theres just incredible uncertainty right now..the storm has a lot of potential so the ceiling is high. Obviously the better up and in you are the better and Winsted at 1K FT is a great place to be right now. 10 is really the bottom of the range, you have the potential to see 2 feet. 

I'd definitely love that outcome, just haven't felt more than a foot, for reasons I mentioned last post, temps are a big problem, if this can phase in the right location, and rip a hole in the atmosphere maybe we can get some adiabatic cooling to overcome that, but that is a big if.

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6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Yeah, I mean maybe he said that because this storm does a loop de loop like 1888, but it's a totally different air mass and the system doesn't have that bent back north/south oriented front feature.

Supposedly the East River froze over and you could walk on it between Manhattan and the Bronx. That’s insane for March. Parts of New York State had 50" + of snow. This is my favorite blizzard and i have a book about it. 

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I've succumbed to the fact that where I'm at in CT I am most likely to receive maybe 6". Could I get more? ( And there are models that show more where I'm at ) sure, but I think the set up is such that the likely hood is less than stellar of receiving more.  If only we had a High to our north........

Still a fun storm to track ( but I am done myself with this Winter ). It has truly been a disappointment as far as Winter goes.  

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Gfs has had the best consistent mid level lift for most of mass for multiple runs in a row as the n stream mid level lows take a perfect slow steady track To crush basically the entirety of the state and then it’s extended in E mass as coastal mid level low/ lift  gets into picture later Tuesday 

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5 hours ago, yoda said:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
415 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

CTZ003-004-MAZ005-006-012-RIZ001-122115-
/O.EXA.KBOX.WS.A.0005.230314T0000Z-230315T1200Z/
Tolland CT-Windham CT-Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Including the cities of Union, Vernon, Putnam, Willimantic,
Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Milford, Worcester, Foster,
and Smithfield
415 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, central, eastern and
  northeastern Massachusetts and northern Rhode Island.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Heavy wet snow combined
  with gusty winds could bring down tree branches and result in
  power outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain is expected to change to snow on
  Tuesday with snow continuing into Tuesday night. Snowfall and
  impacts will likely vary greatly with elevation.

Stingy imho

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