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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Frickin models.   I'm glad I don't read this thread too much.  For example NAM had me at 1.67" last run but .33" this run.  You all have to deal with R/S lines but up here it is how much does the goods come north and how much does the Whites shadow me.

Me looking for a C NH crush job on the models this morning. 
image.jpeg

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its going to be better than 10:1 in some spots. 

Yeah highest terrain maybe. If we start seeing more NAM-esque soundings, then higher ratios become more likely. But we have a lot of solutions that are pretty warm in the BL still. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah highest terrain maybe. If we start seeing more NAM-esque soundings, then higher ratios become more likely. But we have a lot of solutions that are pretty warm in the BL still. 

NAM, is greater than 10:1 for even some lower terrain. Other than that, it would be higher terrain. Lose ghst fu%ing s stream.

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1 minute ago, TalcottWx said:

7h vertical velocity on the Nam looks mighty good your way, unless I'm evaluating it incorrectly. 

An arm of fronto will probably swing through for a bit. It’s a close call up here for something bigger so I’m keeping a casual eye on it. 

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Just now, dendrite said:

An arm of fronto will probably swing through for a bit. It’s a close call up here for something bigger so I’m keeping a casual eye on it. 

I liked that look even up to pf when i saw it this am.. That elevated area west of New England in New York around alb gets deform crushed

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For ratios, outside of the banding they're likely going to be relatively low (probably around 7:1). Going to have to really keep in mind there is likely going to be subsidence involved. Also have to watch for pockets of dry air being ingested in, which if that happens into the DGZ is going to kill too. Then of course you have the boundary-layer issues and of course...wind.

Under the heaviest banding I think ratios upwards of 13:1 to 15:1 are plausible. But this will be better assessed after bufkit is available.

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

For ratios, outside of the banding they're likely going to be relatively low (probably around 7:1). Going to have to really keep in mind there is likely going to be subsidence involved. Also have to watch for pockets of dry air being ingested in, which if that happens into the DGZ is going to kill too. Then of course you have the boundary-layer issues and of course...wind.

Under the heaviest banding I think ratios upwards of 13:1 to 15:1 are plausible. But this will be better assessed after bufkit is available.

Will you be moving the bigger amounts a tick south on your first call clown map?

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Good morning day shift!  I read the whole thread since signing off past 3AM DST.  NAM is one heckuva slam for most of us.   Reggie right now is by himself pending the rest of 12z.   NAM is bad and Reggie (since 2015) is worse.   So we wait.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Forget the snow maps...time to focus on these products

image.thumb.png.2901be4974c1bffe4f3658cec2dfc34b.png

That is a great product….but those are only useful if the model is accurate. I wouldn’t trust the 51 hour NAM at this point. They’ll be better to use tomorrow when hopefully we have more model consensus. 

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