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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Accums can be variable this time of year too. Where the sun is hitting this time of year there’s a little bit of “stored” heat in the ground versus the shade. So even if you’re pounding at 32-33° there can be a little melt compaction at the bottom. Then you have the varying surface albedos which can come into effect early on if the sun can “see through” light accums to the sfc or if the rates lessen or clouds thin. 

Absolutely I just remember 18 when we pounded during the day.

Mar_13_2018_Snow_box.png

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When I looped h5 on the 06z euro, I def expected heavier QPF than what it showed. But it was a step down from 00z. 
 

It’s going to be a significant storm, but the difference between a HECS type blizzard and a fairly heavy late season snow event (but nothing earth shattering) is going to come down to if we have those truly exceptional rates for hours on end. 

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1 minute ago, HinghamBoss said:

What’s the best way to calculate totals in this storm?  Is there a ratio to apply?   7:1?

Probably but it varies where you are. Berks 10 to 12 to 1. Valleys 5 6 to 1 at times. Euro biggest bands are at night and atmosphere is colder. Everything still up in the air IMHO

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When I looped h5 on the 06z euro, I def expected heavier QPF than what it showed. But it was a step down from 00z. 
 

It’s going to be a significant storm, but the difference between a HECS type blizzard and a fairly heavy late season snow event (but nothing earth shattering) is going to come down to if we have those truly exceptional rates for hours on end. 

Even the H7 evolution is nice and keeps the dry slot away. 

Bit of a strange evolution on the euro with the southern stream going so far offshore before coming back. 

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When I looped h5 on the 06z euro, I def expected heavier QPF than what it showed. But it was a step down from 00z. 
 

It’s going to be a significant storm, but the difference between a HECS type blizzard and a fairly heavy late season snow event (but nothing earth shattering) is going to come down to if we have those truly exceptional rates for hours on end. 

We have seen the Euro struggle with qpf before. That run didn't make sense as you said. On to 12Z. Lol This is so much fun. Right up until the bell sounds things are in a total Flux. I could see this getting ugly messaging wise. I can't imagine a foot plus of heavy wet slop damage.

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Probably but it varies where you are. Berks 10 to 12 to 1. Valleys 5 6 to 1 at times. Euro biggest bands are at night and atmosphere is colder. Everything still up in the air IMHO

What’s the best place/way to see where potential banding may set up?

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

We have seen the Euro struggle with qpf before. That run didn't make sense as you said. On to 12Z. Lol This is so much fun. Right up until the bell sounds things are in a total Flux. I could see this getting ugly messaging wise. I can't imagine a foot plus of heavy wet slop damage.

We had exceptional damage here in the Mar 7-8, 2018 storm which was like a foot of grease. 
 

So it’s definitely going to a problem with power issues if we get even 8-12”

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5 hours ago, George001 said:

The crazy thing is models could be underestimating the QPF by quite a bit despite giving many areas 2.5+ inches. With a 970s mb low stalling over the cape I think that will increase. 

Doubt. Once the upper levels catch the primary and the storm stalls the conveyer belts shit down and the storm weakens. That’s why as the storm drifts away, the QPF is minimal. 

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15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Absolutely I just remember 18 when we pounded during the day.

Mar_13_2018_Snow_box.png

Good lord don't remind me. One of the most brutal storms ever. I could travel literally 2 miles in any direction and watch the snow double, then double again. Newport is special.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You’ve got to be a amped up about gusting 70-80 there . I mean come on 

If euro is right. I just have this fear of a semi nam solution which would be mundane. Helps to have the EPS locked, but I think being objective and acknowledging the variables is a good thing. 

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Honestly I think a lot of folks are going to be disappointed with this one. We’ve been tracking so long, folks expect a biggie. But there’s just a few things: airmass, inv trough, phasing, etc. where I don’t blame NWS and TV for being conservative. 
Yes there is a chance my hood could get 18”. But if forced to put a forecast put, I’d play it safe with 8-12”.

 

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