SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 If it's 40 in Albany, Boston, and Chicago, it ain't snowing here. LOL. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: The slowdown combined with an already awful airmass is what sunk this one. Welp...we made it till' 120 hrs this time--maybe next weekend we can bring it home I'm confused why you keep bringing up President's Day Weekend when it looks like there are no real potential storms during that time period. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 C SC gets 2-4" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, Blizzard Hunter said: Yes, I was wrong to say pull in cold air, I meant generate its own cold air. I am not as well versed in meteorology as others in here, but I have followed snowstorms closely since I was a kid. I do think there are some that are getting caught up on certain things (like mid level and ground temps) and being too dismissive about snow chances. Either way, I appreciate your breakdowns as I try to get better educated. You’re not wrong if we had anything close to a typical winter thermal profile. Even a “warm” one by normal standards. That run does dynamically cool the column by like 5-7 degrees but it’s just not enough because it’s so ridiculously warm. Think if it like if we got a storm in early November or April. Because that’s what this thermal regime is more analogous to. It could go perfect and still not be enough because it’s just too warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: And that's it folks Oh well, thanks anyway. We suck at snow and we continue to fail good. At least we are dragging Boston, New York and Philly down with us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, umdterps29 said: I'm confused why you keep bringing up President's Day Weekend when it looks like there are no real potential storms during that time period. Am I missing something? My apologies--no there isn't, just a heavy dose of hopium mixed with weenieism there. (Although 0z Euro and Gfs did show a cold front after a cutter with some precip at the boundary...but that's way out in fantasy land, of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: My apologies--no there isn't, just a heavy dose of hopium mixed with weeping there. (Although 0z Euro and Gfs did show a cold front after a cutter with some precip at the boundary...but that's way out in fantasy land, of course) 10 more days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: And that's it folks See you for the EURO 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 The problem w this run wasn’t the surface temps but the 775-850 mb levels torching w the low so far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, rjvanals said: The problem w this run wasn’t the surface temps but the 775-850 mb levels torching w the low so far south CMC does the same thing - seems sorta clear this is our short term problem. Long-term problem is everything else wrong with the setup, but there has to be some north shift or it is truly DOA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 WB 12Z ICON is my model of choice…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Hate it for people to my north and east but that was a shellacking for Central/Southern VA. Becoming cautiously optimistic. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 What the... I am just looking at the GFS! LOL - Not even close on any other parts of the set up at the time, but January 25, 2000 came to mind.. LOL! Man, this is not going to be fun if the south gets clobbered and we are missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FamouslyHot Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Tomorrow is the anniversary of the great southeastern snowstorm of 1973. That was another extremely low snow winter at BWI (I think 2nd worst on record?) Would be fitting that we get missed to the south again around the same time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: What the... I am just looking at the GFS! LOL - Not even close on any other parts of the set up at the time, but January 25, 2000 came to mind.. LOL! Man, this is not going to be fun if the south gets clobbered and we are missed. Are you really going to be mad that you missed some mashed potatoes in the middle of two heat waves that is instantly incinerated by the sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Going up to Deep Creek for PD next weekend and at this point it's looking like Wisp is just going to be a big hill of dirt. What a horrible year for the ski resorts. Not even cold enough to make snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Are you really going to be mad that you missed some mashed potatoes in the middle of two heat waves that is instantly incinerated by the sun? I think he prefers mash potatoes over shit sandwiches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, umdterps29 said: Going up to Deep Creek for PD next weekend and at this point it's looking like Wisp is just going to be a big hill of dirt. What a horrible year for the ski resorts. Not even cold enough to make snow. Yep I plan an annual visit to my brother's in the NY finger lakes for around this time of year so his kids and my kid can play in the snow. This year: mud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 33 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Oh well, thanks anyway. We suck at snow and we continue to fail good. At least we are dragging Boston, New York and Philly down with us We are all failures this “winter”. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: We are all failures this “winter”. Get used to it, man. Never snowing again. Base state, new normal, and all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: We are all failures this “winter”. I just got a dusting this winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Going up to Deep Creek for PD next weekend and at this point it's looking like Wisp is just going to be a big hill of dirt. What a horrible year for the ski resorts. Not even cold enough to make snow.Terps, that’s exactly where I’ll be and they are facing 4 straight days (M-Th) above freezing. Slim pickins for sure on those slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 16 minutes ago, umdterps29 said: Going up to Deep Creek for PD next weekend and at this point it's looking like Wisp is just going to be a big hill of dirt. What a horrible year for the ski resorts. Not even cold enough to make snow. I don’t know about WISP this year, but Timberline this past Saturday was absolutely stellar. The new owners that came in a few years ago are killing it there. I was super impressed for my first time on that mountain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: I don’t know about WISP this year, but Timberline this past Saturday was absolutely stellar. The new owners that came in a few years ago are killing it there. I was super impressed for my first time on that mountain. They really have turned Timberline around. I was up there after Christmas and Timberline was rocking! Canaan Valley resort down the road had like 2 slopes open. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: I don’t know about WISP this year, but Timberline this past Saturday was absolutely stellar. The new owners that came in a few years ago are killing it there. I was super impressed for my first time on that mountain. I've never been to Timberline but have a place at Wisp right at the peak of the mountain. Based on their live cameras, a lot of dirt is already showing and I expect it will get worse over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 I think @stormtrackerneeds to share his plants with y’all. May help ease the pain. In the meantime I recommend open those windows up and getting some fresh air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Rvarookie said: I think @stormtrackerneeds to share his plants with y’all. May help ease the pain. In the meantime I recommend open those windows up and getting some fresh air Don't know about anybody else but that actually makes it worse for me...I'd rather keep the windows closed and pretend we still need the heat, lol (actually my bedroom can hold onto a chill for days, so I can still feel it ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Don't know about anybody else but that actually makes it worse for me...I'd rather keep the windows closed and pretend we still need the heat, lol (actually my bedroom can hold onto a chill for days, so I can still feel it ) Get out the damn basement bro and get some sunshine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 58 minutes ago, stormtracker said: And that's it folks IMO this is what to look for if we want improvements here... Look back at that GFS run a couple days ago that was a legit snow across our area without needing some miraculous 10 degree dynamic cooling (dont get me wrong it still took a lot going right but this was a better setup). This result.... was because of this setup Look where the upper low is cutting off there, as it crosses the central Apps and the surface low is developing to its east which limits the SE flow here. Also its more connected to the northern stream there so it does have some ability to tap cold air, what little there is. Calling it cold might be a crime but "cooler" at least. But look at the latest 12z GFS same time That's just not going to work. The upper low is cutting off way too far south, putting the surface development way to our south also which places us under a long duration of southeast flow obliterating what marginal cool air we have to work with. Plus it means the system is completely cut off from the northern stream which allows the very marginal to start with "cool" mix of maritime pacific and modified CP air to get stale and degrade from "maybe slightly workable" to "Nope". What we need is for the h5 to trend back to the north and cut off over the TN valley not down in the deep south. I don't know if there is enough time for that to be a realistic ask but its what we need and should look for on future runs. If we don't get that the only chance we have is to get some kind of ridiculous crazy once in a generation type event where we get death banded so extreme that it can dynamically cool the thermal profile by like 10 degrees. That is incredibly unlikely. It's not impossible. And places with some elevation have a better chance of that type thing working out. But by far the better way for us to get snow would be for those adjustments in the H5 I listed above. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 FWIW the Canadian ENS made a significant improvement compared to 12z. way stronger with the ULL compared to 00z and colder than the GEFS 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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