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About FamouslyHot

  • Birthday 04/05/1997

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    Columbia, SC

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  1. https://twitter.com/m_k_gulledge/status/1377691121074237441 Beautiful view of a snow-covered Leconte with spring in the valley
  2. I was disappointed to see only a light dusting that resulted from yesterday’s system. Fortunately, it seems as though the NW flow is staying strong. High peaks should pick up at least an inch I would think. .
  3. Is there a model that handles NW flow snow the best? I’m assuming it would be one of the CAMs. HRRR or 3k NAM? .
  4. At 4300' I think that sounds doable. Wouldn't be surprised if you saw a little more.
  5. Looks to be some impressive NW flow snow coming for the highest elevations. I'll be hiking Mount Leconte this weekend. There should probably be around 4-6" of accumulation on the peak.
  6. GFS seems to overdo UHI, which I think explains the gap in snow when both north and south of the metro are getting slammed. I think the rates would be enough to overcome the shallow warm layer, at least during the peak of the storm.
  7. Here's the trend of the cutoff ULL. You can see it getting pushed back south the past several runs.
  8. CAE finished January 0.8 above average. Our highs were actually -0.5 but our lows were +2.1. That seems to be the story the past few years, our nighttime lows are getting warmer and warmer. It's a big deal now if we even hit freezing at night.
  9. I know by now not to get my hopes up for snow here! But it's still exciting to get a taste of 40 degree rain and watch my friends in the NC mountains get their snow.
  10. Eh we have plenty of 2 week periods that look bad for snow, at least this one has some promise on the horizon. I know there's often a metaphorical carrot dangling in front of us with the projected pattern, but I can't help but get excited because this is a BIG carrot. SSW event with a -NAO, +PNA and no southeast ridge is a blockbuster pattern.
  11. Good news is temps in the Eastern US lag about 20 days behind a SSW event, and with this projected to begin the first week of the year, we may begin to cash in around the last week of January. Bad news is I doubt it'll be enough to get our temps down to average even. Late Jan - early Feb is the time to watch though for extreme cold.
  12. Can't say why, but the evidence is that CoD only shows 20 ensemble members, whereas sites like WeatherBell shows the 30 from the FV3.
  13. The GEFS maps from College of DuPage use the old GFS rather than the FV3. Meaning it could be more or less reliable depending on how you feel about the FV3 lol I personally wouldn't put too much stock in this depiction. The "fingers" of snowfall seem to point to an issue resolving borderline temperatures during the time skips. Plus the pattern of snowfall would imply that this is the back end of the anafront, rather than post-front flurries from the back-end energy like the RGEM shows.
  14. I still frequent the tropical page here. I just remember the southeast forum here as being really busy, especially during winter. It was the first forum I joined right before the January 2017 storm. I remember the epic meltdown as that storm trended NW. Really set the tone for the next few winters haha