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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Kids sledding on mud and throwing rocks at dad pretending they are snowballs again?

So I found the jinx on this season....my kid saved a snowball from last year's, last snowfall. He was supposed to throw it outside during this season's first snowfall. I found it in the back of the freezer this morning. Needless to say, it melted with the rest of the snow this morning...let's see if this bring s us some luck the rest of the season....Lol

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1 hour ago, Spanks45 said:

So I found the jinx on this season....my kid saved a snowball from last year's, last snowfall. He was supposed to throw it outside during this season's first snowfall. I found it in the back of the freezer this morning. Needless to say, it melted with the rest of the snow this morning...let's see if this bring s us some luck the rest of the season....Lol

Hopefully you punished him appropriately?

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

17.5" on the month, which is a hair above normal...remarkable considering the magnitude of the monthly positive temp anomaly. That is what a very active pattern will do at this latitude in the heart of winter.

We actually had good luck on that system where there was no high pressure . That was a thread the needle set up for us 

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January ending with an even 7.00" in the tipper...sump pump has been working overtime this month. Mean temp is currently .2 degrees above December's mean so we could actually end up warmer than December overall. Going into Feb with 15.5" of snow. No idea what average is to date but we're 11" behind last winter. Hoping for a respectable ending.

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14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BDL with a 9.8 above normal for Jan . That number is exactly on par with DC average for Jan. The awful mid Atlantic climate has settled into all of New England 

Actually not a bad idea to check out Bostons last 48/49 months above average. Then. calculate the average departure then see add it to each month and see what city in the Mid-Atlantic is closest. 

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12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Actually not a bad idea to check out Bostons last 48/49 months above average. Then. calculate the average departure then see add it to each month and see what city in the Mid-Atlantic is closest. 

HVN's mean average January temperature was 41.4. Dulles in DC 42.3.

Not that surprising though where a good portion of Southern CT is technically in climate zone 4 now based off the last 15 year temperature trends. DC is in zone 4. 

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6 minutes ago, BrianW said:

HVN's mean average January temperature was 41.4. Dulles in DC 42.3.

Not that surprising though where a good portion of Southern CT is technically in climate zone 4 now based off the last 15 year temperature trends. DC is in zone 4. 

Ya for sure this month makes sense but I wonder what the 4 year average is comparable to considering 4 years is not a fluke, and this January will most likely be fluke. 

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15 hours ago, Spanks45 said:

So I found the jinx on this season....my kid saved a snowball from last year's, last snowfall. He was supposed to throw it outside during this season's first snowfall. I found it in the back of the freezer this morning. Needless to say, it melted with the rest of the snow this morning...let's see if this bring s us some luck the rest of the season....Lol

What a family of weenies. 

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20 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BDL with a 9.8 above normal for Jan . That number is exactly on par with DC average for Jan. The awful mid Atlantic climate has settled into all of New England 

It’s time to move north of the border. Oh Canada, here he comes…revving his truck wrapped in a maga flag. “Let me in, I’m seeking asylum from warm and wet SNE winters.”

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16 hours ago, Spanks45 said:

So I found the jinx on this season....my kid saved a snowball from last year's, last snowfall. He was supposed to throw it outside during this season's first snowfall. I found it in the back of the freezer this morning. Needless to say, it melted with the rest of the snow this morning...let's see if this bring s us some luck the rest of the season....Lol

my kid does the same shit - stashes a snowball at the end of winter every year. weenies.

 

13 hours ago, rimetree said:

January ending with an even 7.00" in the tipper...sump pump has been working overtime this month. Mean temp is currently .2 degrees above December's mean so we could actually end up warmer than December overall. Going into Feb with 15.5" of snow. No idea what average is to date but we're 11" behind last winter. Hoping for a respectable ending.

Yes, overall wettest month here since Jul '21 with 8.22" of total liquid (24.0" snow).  Looks like all eastern areas were pretty wet.  At least Maine had some snow come out of it.

image.thumb.png.6c3f29c53f21a172bc678f9c3e455406.png

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January numbers here:

Avg max:   31.3   +5.5    2nd mildest behind 2006.  Mildest day, 46 on the 1st
Avg min:    17.2   +12.7   Mildest by 4.1°!!   Coldest morning, -8 on the 22nd.  Only 2 subzero mornings; previous low was 4 in 2002
Mean:        24.2   +9.1    1.7° milder than 2006, and greatest positive departure of any month here.  Next is 7.6° in March 2010.

Precip:  5.26   +2.04 and 3rd most    Biggest day, 1.25" on the 13th in a SN to yuck storm.

Snow:    29.9"   +9.9 and 3rd most.  Biggest day, 8.8" on the 23rd.  22-23 totaled 10.1" and brought the pack to 24", tops for the month.  Avg depth of 13:" was 1" AN.

Dec-Jan cumulative:  Temps were +7.1°, precip was +4.65" (160% of avg), snow was +14.2" (137% of avg).

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20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

17.5" on the month, which is a hair above normal...remarkable considering the magnitude of the monthly positive temp anomaly. That is what a very active pattern will do at this latitude in the heart of winter.

True. But there’s a recency bias in this level of active. I have felt it myself. So many chances for snow! Hmm…but for how long?

Some are expecting a mean reversion in temperatures; but not in storm patterns? What if both mean revert or flip bigly in the other direction? A different way to not meeting annual totals.

Definitely have to be disciplined to stay grounded on calendar days remaining of climate that supports snow. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

True. But there’s a recency bias in this level of active. I have felt it myself. So many chances for snow! Hmm…but for how long?

Some are expecting a mean reversion in temperatures; but not in storm patterns? What if both mean revert or flip bigly in the other direction? A different way to not meeting annual totals.

Definitely have to be disciplined to stay grounded on calendar days remaining of climate that supports snow. 

 

 

My post wasn't meant to infer anything about the future. I was simply reflecting on January.

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

January numbers here:

Avg max:   31.3   +5.5    2nd mildest behind 2006.  Mildest day, 46 on the 1st
Avg min:    17.2   +12.7   Mildest by 4.1°!!   Coldest morning, -8 on the 22nd.  Only 2 subzero mornings; previous low was 4 in 2002
Mean:        24.2   +9.1    1.7° milder than 2006, and greatest positive departure of any month here.  Next is 7.6° in March 2010.

Precip:  5.26   +2.04 and 3rd most    Biggest day, 1.25" on the 13th in a SN to yuck storm.

Snow:    29.9"   +9.9 and 3rd most.  Biggest day, 8.8" on the 23rd.  22-23 totaled 10.1" and brought the pack to 24", tops for the month.  Avg depth of 13:" was 1" AN.

Dec-Jan cumulative:  Temps were +7.1°, precip was +4.65" (160% of avg), snow was +14.2" (137% of avg).

Mildest January lows by 4 degrees . That’s a damn torch 

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