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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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11 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

With December quickly coming to a disappointing end for many, it's time to move onto January and "peak" winter discussion.

12z gfs on 12/18 shows a vicious New Year's cutter to start the month, lots of 40's and 50's.  We'll see if that holds.

So are you saying that I can tell the people who are still waiting for the December Train to arrive to go home???

See the source image

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2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

With December quickly coming to a disappointing end for many, it's time to move onto January and "peak" winter discussion.

12z gfs on 12/18 shows a vicious New Year's cutter to start the month, lots of 40's and 50's.  We'll see if that holds.

This is great 

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Time to close the shades for a couple weeks after Christmas 
Hopefully it's not like 1989 otherwise game over for winter 

We just opened them wide based on 10-15 day ensemble runs and that didn’t exactly pan out. Implying nothing for the next three weeks is just an emotional response to us recently getting burned.


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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Time to close the shades for a couple weeks after Christmas 

Hopefully it's not like 1989 otherwise game over for winter 

Couple weeks ? Do you not forget what is going on with this current storm at the end of the week?

It's foolish to cancel anything for weeks when the models struggle a few days out.

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10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Time to close the shades for a couple weeks after Christmas 

Hopefully it's not like 1989 otherwise game over for winter 

Shades remain wide open, yes it gets a little mild if the models are right but slightly above normal temps could still be snow in January in New England. The Mid Atlantic is probably cooked if this is right, but New England isn’t. Besides there’s the Miller B nor’easter/blizzard threat the 27th-29th. yeah I said it, and I stand by it looking at the 500 mb pattern. This isn’t some moderate 6-12 inch storm threat (not that there is anything wrong with that, hell I was hoping we would get a couple earlier in the month). The Euro is hinting at the incredibly rare triple phaser setup. Now I wouldn’t expect us to actually get a triple phaser. Just a normal phase would still be one hell of a storm, a triple phaser would lead to this suddenly becoming one of the snowiest Decembers on record. However, despite the triple phase being extremely unlikely, the fact that the best guidance we have is even hinting at that shows how much potential this storm has. 

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42 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Early call is +8 on the month

In order for that to work out, the best way would be +12-14 1/1-15 with a presumed -5 1/16-31.  Definitely possible but the first half create crocuses up in mid month.  An all out torch of +8 wire to wire is a lot tougher.

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

In order for that to work out, the best way would be +12-14 1/1-15 with a presumed -5 1/16-31.  Definitely possible but the first half create crocuses up in mid month.  An all out torch of +8 wire to wire is a lot tougher.

Ya know he's trying to get a ride out of anyone he can right? 

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8 hours ago, weathafella said:

In order for that to work out, the best way would be +12-14 1/1-15 with a presumed -5 1/16-31.  Definitely possible but the first half create crocuses up in mid month.  An all out torch of +8 wire to wire is a lot tougher.

If the whole month is warm then it's doable. Take a +12-14 first half and still average +5 or better 2nd half and there ya go. 

However I'm not convinced we'll even go that high and/or stay mild all month. I think a +4 monthly is much more reasonable 

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19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If the whole month is warm then it's doable. Take a +12-14 first half and still average +5 or better 2nd half and there ya go. 

However I'm not convinced we'll even go that high and/or stay mild all month. I think a +4 monthly is much more reasonable 

Avg +8 from Fort Kent to the southern coast of CT for New England is tough to do in Jan.  That would be a disaster for the Ski areas.

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4 minutes ago, masonwoods said:

Avg +8 from Fort Kent to the southern coast of CT for New England is tough to do in Jan.  That would be a disaster for the Ski areas.

It's very unlikely. Weeklies also show more troughiness 2nd half of Jan.

Even with a record warm 1st half of November we only managed a +3-3.5 for the month so very warm weather has to hold all month like in Dec 2015. 

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1 hour ago, masonwoods said:

There is always some idiot who grabs a 24hr period 10+ days out to make a point about a whole month's avg temp variance.

Jan 2015 had multiple 50+ days and I’m pretty sure it had a couple 60s the first half of the month. In Feb 2017 we had a blizzard days after 70 degree weather. Calling for +8 for an entire month based on a projected mild first week (still far enough out to possibly change) is ridiculous. The pattern early Jan on the models is obviously not a cold one, but it’s not record warm either. It looks like the -NAO reloads while the pacific is bad (+EPO) early month. It’s not a great pattern but closing the shades? Nah, positive NAO and EPO with a negative PNA is close the shades. 

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1 minute ago, George001 said:

 

 

Jan 2015 had multiple 50+ days and I’m pretty sure it had a couple 60s the first half of the month. In Feb 2017 we had a blizzard days after 70 degree weather. Calling for +8 for an entire month based on a projected mild first week (still far enough out to possibly change) is ridiculous. The pattern early Jan on the models is obviously not a cold one, but it’s not record warm either. It looks like the -NAO reloads while the pacific is bad (+EPO) early month. It’s not a great pattern but closing the shades? Nah, positive NAO and EPO with a negative PNA is close the shades. 

Never sniffed 60 in Jan 2015....some spots may have touched low 50s in the two cutters (1/3 and 1/18) but otherwise it was pretty cold all month. That was part of the frustration in the first 3 weeks of that month....it was quite cold except the two main storm systems were both awful cutters, so we got little snow (just a bit on the front end in the 1.3 system)

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Never sniffed 60 in Jan 2015....some spots may have touched low 50s in the two cutters (1/3 and 1/18) but otherwise it was pretty cold all month. That was part of the frustration in the first 3 weeks of that month....it was quite cold except the two main storm systems were both awful cutters, so we got little snow (just a bit on the front end in the 1.3 system)

I am about as confident as I will ever be with respect to anything that we will have a very mild stretch this month (January)....probably milder than Jan 2015...maybe more like 2005. But I will also go down with the ship regarding January offering some great volatility and downright wild potential.

Perhaps my timing is off and it gets pushed to February, and I mix the months up, similar to what I did in 2021....this season isn't a ratter, though.

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1 hour ago, masonwoods said:

There is always some idiot who grabs a 24hr period 10+ days out to make a point about a whole month's avg temp variance.

And he’s a complete and Utter TROLL. I’ve completely stopped reading his 5 posts per day. Just scroll right on past them. He  Adds Zero to any conversation.  Sad. 

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You're not worried about the coupled Nina?

The ensembles from end of Dec to beginning of Jan are out of the strong Nina playbook 

Does a well coupled la nina necessarily mean a ratter en route?

No.

TBH, I have taken a break from long range stuff after some of the frustrating head fakes of late. I'll look again probably next week, but I am confident from everything I looked at preseason that this won't be a dud...at least not for New England. Maybe I'll need to revisit that in a couple of weeks, but cross that bridge....

Anyway, all of my stuff is judged as is....sure, I may revise my thoughts in season, but I don't touch that thesis from November....that is graded as is.

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