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July 2022


bluewave
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I really prefer the ECMWF depiction of W.A.R. building westward over the GFS extending the western ridge northeastward. The GFS has been doing what it's going for a long time and it's been wrong time after time. Note the western ridge actually retrogrades a little bit too. It makes far more sense. There's still a little bit of blocking left here so I do not yet think we're into a heatwave at this point just another day or two.  I think heatwave potential increases after the 20th or 21st.

WX/PT

ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_10.png

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Parts of NJ were added to the lowest level of D0 this week. That mostly means browning lawns. The last time we made it to level 2 was back in 2016. So most of the time we end up getting a deluge after a few months of drier conditions. NYC hasn’t had a level 3 drought since 2002. That  was the last time there were water restrictions put  in place. So our dry patterns haven’t been able to make it to a level 3 or 4 since the wetter regime began in 2003. The most serious droughts of the last 20 years have mostly been restricted to the West into the Plains. 
 

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/TimeSeries.aspx

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It’s hard to believe there hasn’t been a legit drought in the NYC metro area for over 20 years. I guess the streak has to be broken eventually. I honestly can’t remember it being as dry like it is right now in my memory, the soil moisture has to be way low, there’s a lot of brown lawns to be seen in my area…..something that has been very, very rare in recent history  

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2 hours ago, uncle W said:

a real drought is far different from a dry period we are having now...if it continues for another 10 years it would equal the 1956-1965 period...

We could easily have 2 tropical systems come up here in August and any dry spell is long gone. It’s incredibly hard to get more than a short lived moderate drought here. 

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45 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s hard to believe there hasn’t been a legit drought in the NYC metro area for over 20 years. I guess the streak has to be broken eventually. I honestly can’t remember it being as dry like it is right now in my memory, the soil moisture has to be way low, there’s a lot of brown lawns to be seen in my area…..something that has been very, very rare in recent history  

Only nuisance dry patterns here since that 2002 drought ended. It peaked in April that year and the drought feedback got us close to 100°. Luckily, we haven’t been that dry in 20 years. 

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Monthly Data for April 2002 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
NJ HARRISON COOP 98
NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 98
NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 97
NJ CRANFORD COOP 97
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 97
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Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy and cool. Scattered showers and thundershowers are possible. However, much of the time, there will be no precipitation.

In the Southwest, a significant heatwave has now descended on the region. As of 3:35 pm MST, Phoenix had a high temperature of 110°. Phoenix will likely see numerous 110° or above temperatures and several minimum temperatures of 90° or above through the middle of next week.

The heat also stretched into the Gulf States and Southeast. Memphis saw a high temperature of 103°, which surpassed the daily record of 101° set in 1969 and tied in 1980.

Next week could see a brief surge of heat into the region. Widespread 90s are possible on one or two days. Overall, the month will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was -3.02.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.704 today.

On July 6 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.431 (RMM). The July 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.593 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.2° (0.7° above normal).

 

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5 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah I thought about you when I saw those downpours on radar in northwest NJ. Frustrating when a downpour misses by just a few miles.

Digital had 1" near Crandon Lakes... til here in Wantage.  Bummer but it is what hit is...summer convection.  Pattern has to change to southwest flow aloft along east coast before we get better chances.

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7 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Meanwhile the EURO dropped its Tuesday high down to 78? from 95! 

The Euro has upper 90s near Newark Tuesday. You can see the low 90s extending to Central Park on the Euro forecast below. 
 

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The next 8 days are averaging  82degs.(72/92) or +5.

Reached 78 here yesterday.

Today:  80-85, wind n. to e. to s. , improving skies, 66 tomorrow AM.

GFS continues HW with little rain for duration of run.      EURO back to 93 for Tuesday{95>74>93}

UP UP and AWAY in my BEAUTIFUL BOLOGNA!      For the record, July 20,21 together have about 10 of the 59 !00-Degree Days in NYC.

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74*(65%RH) here at 7am.        78* at 11am.        80* at Noon.      81* at 12:30pm then dropped to 78* at 1pm,2pm.     Reached 87* at 7pm.    75* at 11pm.

 

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So, what may happen soon, MOS cool bias due to drying ground.  RH won't be quite as high but for us, hotter temps than guidance.  Still looks overall drier than normal here through the 24th...at least the 24th. Hoping for a deluge with one of the fronts. WPC on average...less than 0.3" here next 7 days.

 

Noting also a SVR risk on SPC D4 nw parts of our area. (Tue)

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The typical July La Niña patten for us is is a strong WAR/SE Ridge. But the record blocking over Northern Canada is competing with the La Niña influence. So the storms get suppressed to our south. The EPS looks like more of the same over the next 10 days. 
 

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Morning thoughts…

Overnight, Washington, DC picked up 4.00” of rain. Two consecutive hours saw 1.51” and 1.53” fall. Prior to then, only June 25, 2006 had two consecutive hours with 1” or more rainfall.

It will be partly to mostly sunny and warm except from southern New Jersey southward where it will be mostly cloudy with some showers. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 83°

Newark: 89°

Philadelphia: 82°

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and pleasant.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.9°; 15-Year: 85.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.1°; 15-Year: 88.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.0°; 15-Year: 88.8°

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Shower/Clouds pushing south dividing NJ in half.   Should turn out to be quite pleasant today for much of the area.   Sunday should see areawide very sunny and near normal before warming begins on Mon (7/11) as the furnace ejects heat into the region.  Overall hot next week with Tue (7/12) and Wed (7/13) looking to see mid / upper 90s.  Storms look possible Wed.  Thu (7/15) Euro has low eject out of the gulf up the EC with some decent rains skimming the area. GFS keeps it warm - hot and dry (mainly). 

 

Loner range still offers warmer look to end the month.  Will need to see if the Western Atlantic High builds west or the Rockies ridge pushes east with a trough into the PNW/WC by the 19th.

 

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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