Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,542
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyweather
    Newest Member
    happyweather
    Joined

July 2022


bluewave
 Share

Recommended Posts

On 7/9/2022 at 11:04 AM, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Another way of looking at it. We can continue to have extreme blocking but if the location of the blocking weather systems shifts to the east, we could end up in the western heat ridge for days and days with heatwaves. In other words, our location within the flow changes. So, there is really more than one way we can establish extended heat around here. 

WX/PT

September/October

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and warm. A brief surge of heat is possible for Tuesday and Wednesday. At that time, widespread 90s are possible.

In the South and Southwest, a significant heatwave continues. Through 4:51 pm MST, Phoenix had a high temperature of 113°. Phoenix will likely see numerous 110° or above temperatures and several minimum temperatures of 90° or above through the middle of next week. Afterward, somewhat cooler air will close out the week.

Records included:

Abilene, TX: 106° (tied record set in 1918)
Austin: 110° (old record: 105°, 1917)
Brownsville: 100° (old record: 99°, 1917)
College Station, TX: 111° (old record: 109°, 1917)
Corpus Christi: 100° (old record: 98°, 1953, 1964, 1975 and 2009)
Houston: 104° (old record: 101°, 1909, 1980 and 1998)
Galveston: 96° (tied record set in 1931)
McCook, NE: 111° (old record: 109°, 1954)
Pueblo, CO: 107° (old record: 105°, 2016)
San Antonio: 106° (old record: 105°, 1930)

Galveston also registered its record-tying 7th consecutive low temperature of 85°.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +9.23.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.197 today.

On July 8 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.120 (RMM). The July 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.331 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.5° (1.0° above normal).

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

September/October

I don't know about that. September maybe. But the blocking doesn't have to completely end in order for us to get a heatwave here. 2012 had a number of heatwaves with blocking. It is where exactly the weather systems are that set up the block and where we are within the jet stream flow at the time. There is more than one way to skin a cat and now the 18Z GEFS has the ridges together as one. The timing is getting better. We're still in the stage of 1-2 day surges of heat. What's next? We do not know.

WX/PT

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_atl_48.png

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

I have to ask a silly question…it almost seems as if posters on this forum are rooting for extreme heat and humidity.

Why?

73F, Low humidity. Beautiful evening.

Because average doesn't give you much to talk about. The more extreme "it" is the more animated some people get and they thrive on that, after a while they just have to have it. It's like a drug. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

I have to ask a silly question…it almost seems as if posters on this forum are rooting for extreme heat and humidity.

Why?

73F, Low humidity. Beautiful evening.

I think it’s mostly just being curious about where the pattern is headed at any given time. This is the first era when longer range forecasting has become possible. I can remember the how 70s weather models only went out a few days . So the forecast for the next day was often incorrect especially with winter storms. 

With the rapid warming of our climate, the patterns are slanted to much warmer. So any period when the record heat is missing our area like this summer so far is noteworthy. Just look at how warm our summers have become since the early 90s. 

We are coming off 4 warmer summers in a row from 2018 to 2021. Numerous heat and humidity records have been set since 2018. The only other 4 year warm streaks were 2010 to 2013 and 2005 to 2008. The 5th summers had cooler temperatures in 2009 and near normal in 2014. Our last summer with near average temperatures was back in 2017.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/2801/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

Near normal and cool years bolded

Year JJA……NYC boroughs and Long Island…Northern New Jersey 

2021….+1.1….+1.2

2020…+2.6….+2.9

2019…+1.5…..+1.8

2018…+1.7……+1.8

2017…..+0.2….0.0

2016….+2.5….+2.5

2015….+1.4…..+0.8

2014…..-0.1…..-0.1

2013….+1.2…..+1.3

2012…..+1.7…..+1.7

2011…..+2.2…..+1.8

2010….+3.9…..+3.4

2009….-0.6…..-0.6

2008….+1.2……+1.4

2007…..+0.3…..+0.6

2006…..+1.7……+1.6

2005…..+2.6…..+3.3

2004…..-0.3….-0.6

2003…+0.4….+0.4

2002…..+1.6….+2.3

2001…..+0.7…..+0.6

2000…..-1.2…..-1.3

1999…..+2.7…..+2.9

1998….+0.7…..+0.7

1997….-0.3……-0.8

1996…..-0.6….-0.4

1995….+1.4…..+1.8

1994….+1.5…..+1.8

1993….+1.4…..+1.3

1992….-2.0…..-2.3

1991…..+1.8…..+1.7


 


 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think it’s mostly just being curious about where the pattern is headed at any given time. This is the first era when longer range forecasting has become possible. I can remember the how 70s weather models only went out a few days . So the forecast for the next day was often incorrect especially with winter storms. 

With the rapid warming of our climate, the patterns are slanted to much warmer. So any period when the record heat is missing our area like this summer so far is noteworthy. Just look at how warm our summers have become since the early 90s. 

We are coming off 4 warmer summers in a row from 2018 to 2021. Numerous heat and humidity records have been set since 2018. The only other 4 year warm streaks were 2010 to 2013 and 2005 to 2008. The 5th summers had cooler temperatures in 2009 and near normal in 2014. Our last summer with near average temperatures was back in 2017.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/2801/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

Near normal and cool years bolded

Year JJA……NYC boroughs and Long Island…Northern New Jersey 

2021….+1.1….+1.2

2020…+2.6….+2.9

2019…+1.5…..+1.8

2018…+1.7……+1.8

2017…..+0.2….0.0

2016….+2.5….+2.5

2015….+1.4…..+0.8

2014…..-0.1…..-0.1

2013….+1.2…..+1.3

2012…..+1.7…..+1.7

2011…..+2.2…..+1.8

2010….+3.9…..+3.4

2009….-0.6…..-0.6

2008….+1.2……+1.4

2007…..+0.3…..+0.6

2006…..+1.7……+1.6

2005…..+2.6…..+3.3

2004…..-0.3….-0.6

2003…+0.4….+0.4

2002…..+1.6….+2.3

2001…..+0.7…..+0.6

2000…..-1.2…..-1.3

1999…..+2.7…..+2.9

1998….+0.7…..+0.7

1997….-0.3……-0.8

1996…..-0.6….-0.4

1995….+1.4…..+1.8

1994….+1.5…..+1.8

1993….+1.4…..+1.3

1992….-2.0…..-2.3

1991…..+1.8…..+1.7


 


 

But isnt it noteworthy that this summer:

-Is fairly normal temp wise

-Has low humidity

-Has cool overnight temps?

If the Abnormal Extreme has become expected, isnt its absence noteworthy? 

Im certainly talking about it thus far!

65F this morning in Westchester.

The summer of yesteryear continues…:)

 

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The next 8 days are averaging 79degs.(70/88) +1.

Reached 82 here yesterday.

Today:  80-85, wind w. to s. and breezy late, mixed skies, 72 tomorrow AM.

1657519200-ioIXSBPn23s.png

68*(82%RH) here at 7am.       73* at Noon.       Reached 81* at 7pm.        72* at 10pm.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We are about to see very impressive Niña strengthening

Blocking is always the wild card. The winter of 20-21 was the first in this multi-year event. We got 3 winter months that the blocking overpowered the La Niña influence. Even though it was a snowy winter, the unusually south based block kept us warmer than average. Last winter began with one of the most extreme La Niña Decembers with the record low -PNA. January had a dramatic La Niña reversal with the NE PAC block dominating. Then back to La Niña in February. So a one month wonder winter. It will be interesting to see what influence becomes dominant on a month to month basis this coming winter. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 84°

Newark: 90°

Philadelphia: 87°

Tomorrow and Wednesday will be hot. Thunderstorms are possible.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 85.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.2°; 15-Year: 88.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.0°

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Down to a very pleasant 57 last night and now jumping to 72/61.  Warm week ahead with a very mid summer feel.  Bright sunshine today with highs jumping to the upper 80s perhaps some 90s on the warm spots.  widespread 90s on Tue (7/12) and Wed (7/13) ahead of some storms on Tuesday night.  Pending on clouds Wed could be the hottest day of the week.   Continues warm as another piece of the western furnace ejects east this coming weekend Sat (7/16) and Sun (7/17) into next week.  Overall above normal regime.  Wild card will be tropics and potential tropical storm Danielle.  

Longer range continues to show overall nation wide warmth and the Western Atlantic Ridge shifting westward to perhaps link with the WUS ridge.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The good thing about airports is that accurate weather measurements are important to flight safety. So the NWS puts priority in fixing those issues first. This was the case with the cold bias at Albany Airport. The NWS had to repair that issue. But Central Park is a different case. The NWS accepted the cold bias and tree growth there since they knew it wasn’t critical for flight operations. 

https://altamontenterprise.com/09162021/albany-airport-needs-more-accurate-thermometer

Albany airport needs more accurate thermometer


Assuming that is the case, an accurate thermometer is just as critical to the aviation industry. If the actual temperature is 34 F, but the Automated Surface Observing System thermometer records a temperature of 32 F, the pilot might have to be concerned about freezing rain versus liquid rain, which makes a huge operational impact. 

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202109301152-KALY-NOUS41-PNSALY&fbclid=IwAR3qMPgzU7304a0S3RB2d_eJfzYDVieOGpnQv4Om4bIVmxdk1s4PBwqa_O0

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2021

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REPLACEMENT OF THERMOMETER AT
ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RECONDITIONING CENTER (NWSRC) REPLACED
THE AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM THERMOMETER AND ASSOCIATED
ELECTRONICS AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT YESTERDAY, 
SEPTEMBER 29, 2021 AT 9:30 AM. THE THERMOMETER WAS REPLACED WITH A
MODIFIED SENSOR AND CALIBRATED WITH A MODIFIED ALIGNMENT 
PROCEDURE.

A REFERENCE THERMOMETER, RUNNING SIDE BY SIDE WITH THE ASOS THERMOMETER,
HAS COLLECTED DATA FOR COMPARISON SINCE JUNE. THE PREVIOUS 
THERMOMETERS INSTALLED SINCE JULY 17, 2020 LIKELY HAD A COLD BIAS 
(THERMOMETER RECORDS A COLDER TEMPERATURE THAN THE ACTUAL 
TEMPERATURE).


http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html

New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy.
Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather
information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the
equipment buried in Central Park.

Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information
recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of
Central Park.

But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the
accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he
says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can
warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is
in the shade instead of direct sunlight.

Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car
without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with
false information."

The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top.
There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an
eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way.

But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather
readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at
the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet
of the station.

 

Airports need help when the temperature is near freezing and what kind and how much precipitation is falling...ice on runways etc...thunderstorms in the summer time need to be monitored...so if its sunny and 80 degrees you can take days off or have long lunch breaks...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 7/10/2022 at 9:24 AM, StormchaserChuck! said:

La Nina is not succeeding. and we have a PDO evolution starting to look like 13-15. 

 

ssta.daily.current.png

Huh? We are currently seeing the strongest easterly wind burst in history. And we are in a long term -PDO cycle. The Niña is about to strengthen big time 

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, TheManWithNoFace said:

Trees starting to lose leaves to lack of rain in the Hunterdon area. 

I'm starting to notice that with some trees too, and of course the grass is burning out. Everything is under stress because it has been so dry. I see 12z NAM and HRRR have some pretty good storms tomorrow. Really hoping we get some heavy rain tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I'm starting to notice that with some trees too, and of course the grass is burning out. Everything is under stress because it has been so dry. I see 12z NAM and HRRR have some pretty good storms tomorrow. Really hoping we get some heavy rain tomorrow.

Yeah there should be a stripe of 1/2" somewhere in NJ tomorrow but it's not going to be widespread enough to help everyone. I drove the route12 circle today. Something killed all the big trees in the circle and the grass is so brown, you could think it was mid winter on that patch of ground. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, TheManWithNoFace said:

Yeah there should be a stripe of 1/2" somewhere in NJ tomorrow but it's not going to be widespread enough to help everyone. I drove the route12 circle today. Something killed all the big trees in the circle and the grass is so brown, you could think it was mid winter on that patch of ground. 

Probably ash trees

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

But isnt it noteworthy that this summer:

-Is fairly normal temp wise

-Has low humidity

-Has cool overnight temps?

If the Abnormal Extreme has become expected, isnt its absence noteworthy? 

Im certainly talking about it thus far!

65F this morning in Westchester.

The summer of yesteryear continues…:)

 

 

your nearest asos is running +1.4 so far this month against the warmest normals we've ever had. that's a summer of yesteryear? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...