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July 2022


bluewave
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The next 8 days are averaging  78degs.(69/88) or +1.

Reached 78* here yesterday.

Today:  85-90, p. cloudy, wind w. to n. to e., 74 tomorrow AM.

Everybody  IN THE POOL by late July into August.      Luckily NH max.T's are on the way down by this time:

1659830400-q0DqlLd641Q.png

74*(95%RH) here at 7am.       77* at 8am.      79* at 9am.      80* at 9:30am.      83* at 11am.      84* at Noon.       85* at 2pm.       87* at 4pm.        Reached 89* at 6pm.        82* at 10pm.

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12 hours ago, bluewave said:

The La Nina background state has been constant on a global scale since February. The SE Ridge/WAR dominated from February to May. But the blocking since June 1st pushed the La Niña ridge SW  toward the Plains. The EPS and GEFS bring back the WAR/SE ridge as we approach July 20th with less blocking. 

F526B946-5913-4872-A584-3001D296F108.thumb.png.ee9028bcea000096574993833b92c25e.png


BFD7AD8E-25C9-4A2A-897D-0F7BDEA86684.thumb.png.aaddfe65c708f7dc69eec44137bbe567.png


 

F9F6583F-44CF-4518-BA18-3166A29B28FD.png.7b7ed656cd9c3016b3fafe4118f7890e.png


B0DDB5B8-8E98-49EC-B10F-21E580565EFC.png.d0079be7aa6aebdd37b44daf72befdbe.png

 

 

Another trend we’ve seen over the last 3 years is the models underestimating how strong the Niña is going to become in the fall, they end up having to correct stronger as we get closer. This year is no different. The new Euro and CANSIPS runs have gotten more aggressive with the cooling

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Another trend we’ve seen over the last 3 years is the models underestimating how strong the Niña is going to become in the fall, they end up having to correct stronger as we get closer. This year is no different. The new Euro and CANSIPS runs have gotten more aggressive with the cooling

The trade wind index recently set a monthly record for the Central Pacific this spring and in late June. So the atmospheric response to the La Niña is more impressive  than the SST anomalies in the Nino region would indicate. The record SSTs in the Western Pacific and record  Sydney rainfall are very impressive. Almost like a Western Pacific super El Niño. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/cpac850

 

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Partly sunny and warm / hotter today.  Should see plenty of upper 80s / low 90s.  Models pushing brunt of the rain south Thu (7/7) and Fri (7/8).  Will see if any of the more widespread showers and rain can push into the region.  Otherwise, looking cloudy Thursday and 80s and perhaps stormier on Fri.  The weekend currently looks dry and sunny but the 06z euro did bring a batch of showers into the region.  Rockies Ridge on roids through mid month, yet despite the trough into the GL and NE, a warm southerly flow on days that are dry should push temps near 90 early next week Mon (7/11) - Wed (7/13).  Would think with such a trough that rain chances should increase.  Beyond that the Western Atlantic Ridge is on the move west.  Will see how it progresses but a much warmer finish to the month may be instore.

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13 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

Dry begets dry

 

The mid range forecasts have been awful. I dont  see why that would change for a sketchy event on thursday

Yeah and now the models aren't showing much for late week. No surprise. I will just have to keep watering the vegetable garden often.

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16 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah and now the models aren't showing much for late week. No surprise. I will just have to keep watering the vegetable garden often.

The extended dry spells are worrisome because they usually end in a massive deluge.

And if forecasts are correct for late July through September then things will get a lot more tropical soon. 

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Another trend we’ve seen over the last 3 years is the models underestimating how strong the Niña is going to become in the fall, they end up having to correct stronger as we get closer. This year is no different. The new Euro and CANSIPS runs have gotten more aggressive with the cooling

Perma-Nina rages on. It’ll be interesting to see what it’ll take for it to finally end. The Southwest really needs for that to happen. 

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3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Perma-Nina rages on. It’ll be interesting to see what it’ll take for it to finally end. The Southwest really needs for that to happen. 

It’s ironic that the super El Niño flipped us to the strongest extended winter SE Ridge pattern on record. 7 consecutive warm winters is a first for our area. The weak modoki El Niño in 14-15 was our last cold winter. 

Since the super El Niño in 15-16

38EFCAF4-EEA2-459C-BF9E-28F2FC827460.png.68186200324deadd49f05c6fb4ee6c94.png

Before the super El Nino

 

A4D7A564-0203-4042-8AE0-6CD36C32FDE0.png.7c0e46389868cd50e4655ec5fd37e87c.png

 

 

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Something comparable might be the extreme cold of winter 1917-18 to the record heat of August 1918. Although that was less sustained than the warmth of Dec 2015. 

NYC had the example also of the heavy snowfall in late Dec 1947 to the record heat in late August of 1948. 

Both 1944 and 1948 provide examples of summers when not much significant heat occur before late July and then a lot of heat comes in August. 

An even faster reversal of large magnitude was 1976-77 when a cold regime that persisted from October 1976 to January 1977 flipped during February to a very warm spring in 1977 (albeit with one brief reversal to anomalous late cold around May 8-9). 

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51 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Have we ever seen a flip as extreme as Feb 2015 to Dec 2015? Roughly -12°F to +12°F in a single year.

The Feb 15 -11.4 to Dec 15 +13.3 swing was the most extreme within a year. Dec 89 -10.3 to Jan 90 +9.6 and Feb 90 +6.4 was the most extreme within a season.

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Unsettled weather will likely return for tomorrow through Saturday. Showers and thundershowers will be possible, along with cooler temperatures.

In the Southwest, a significant heatwave is likely to develop. From Friday into the middle of next week, Phoenix will likely see numerous 110° or above temperatures and several minimum temperatures of 90° or above.

The first 10 days of July could see near normal readings overall in the Northeast. A brief surge of heat could follow afterward. Overall, the month will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal. The newest EPS weeklies suggest that a sustained period of above normal temperatures could develop after mid-July.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +11.26.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.109 today.

On July 4 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.647 (RMM). The July 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.460 (RMM).

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly cloudy and cooler. A few locations could see a shower or thundershower. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 82°

Newark: 85°

Philadelphia: 82°

Unsettled weather will continue through Saturday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.7°; 15-Year: 85.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.9°; 15-Year: 87.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.8°; 15-Year: 88.6°

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The next 8 days are averaging  80degs.(71/89) or +3.

Reached 89 here yesterday.

Today:   75-80, wind e. to se., cloudy, rain?, 71 tomorrow.

HW starts the 12th---But does it hold?

75*(74%RH) here at 7am.       80* at Noon.      Down to 78* at 1pm.      Back to 80* at 3pm.    81* at 4pm.     Reached 84* at 6pm 

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Clouds today with rain splitting the southern 2/3 of NJ.  Rain should move out over the next couple of hours and more partial clearing into the afternoon.  Friday (looks much like yesterday  where/when it's  sunny it should push temperatures into the mid-upper 80s and some warmer spots near 90.  Saturday (7/9) looks to have rain and storms move through in the morning with brunt of the precip staying south of the nyc/nj metro areas.  By Sunday (7/10) is looking very clear and sunny.

 

Western Ridge lodges over the Rockies sends a piece of the heat down around the trough into the EC Tue (7/12) - Wed (7/13).   Assuming its sunny it could be very hot for 36-48 hours as Euro and GFS pushing >18c - 21C 850 MB temperatures in the period.

Longer range continues to show ridge building into the east coast linking at times with the retrograding Western Atlantic High.

 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

 

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It could take a while for it to affect our weather though, if it does at all. 

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4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It was very large with estimates of a high VEI 5 to low 6 (about 6km^3 of material up to 15ish or so km^3). Pinatubo was roughly 11 - 12 km^3, a low end 6. 
 

But both Novarupta in 1912 and Krakatau in 1886 were up to 30km^3 of material, and Tambora in 1815 was an enormous VEI 7 with over 100km^3 of volcanic material. 
 

It was a very, very large event with respect to modern times, but it is handily eclipsed going back a hundred to a couple hundred years. 
 

The absolute highest value for HTHH I’ve seen backed by a paper was about 20km^3, but that appears to be a high end outlier. 
 

And to reiterate, it was quite sulphur poor as the majority of SO2 leached into the ocean instead of being blasted into the stratosphere where it would have a cooling effect. Only about 1/40th of the stratospheric SO2 release of Pinatubo was measured, and Pinatubo reduced temperatures by about 1-2 degrees F (and also masked sea level rise by quite a bit, a separate but equally interesting topic to research. Edit: added a link to an article about this at the end). 
 

There are other volcanic particulates than can induce cooling that HTHH released, but I’m more intrigued by the massive release of water vapor. That is not typical and as mentioned could have a warming effect. 
 

Regardless, some instability in the climate system upwards or downwards with respect to temperature and patterns seems to be a given. 
 

edit:

Here is an article written by a university professor regarding Pinatubo’s influence on the oceans. It’s very fascinating. 
 

https://www.volcanocafe.org/when-pinatubo-turned-the-tide/

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

It could take a while for it to affect our weather though, if it does at all. 

The eruption occurred back in January, there is a lag effect of several months. That said, a tropical volcanic eruption of such an extreme magnitude that pumps up into the stratosphere is definitely going to have a major effect on the weather. The amount of water vapor, ash and sulfate aerosols it released into the stratosphere was enormous. The exact specific effects it will have are unknown yet, however, it will definitely have a very notable effect on the stratosphere/weather of some sort 

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