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July 2022


bluewave
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The EPS is beginning to show the SE Ridge/WAR pattern developing in mid to late July. So that’s probably when places like NYC and LGA see their first heatwave. The Euro has a classic endless summer pattern from August into October. 

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5BE1963E-BE80-4EB6-A095-E033878802DE.png.04fb5d55d5841d0d1f7b7049ab2ae463.png

 

 

Yeah, the Euro has enhanced probabilities for Gulf and East Coast landfalls. 

A4CFFC13-9C30-408D-B484-E07563F55360.png.73dbf503a80176c4650ba99722bd45ac.png

 

I am skeptical about this look though 

The Euro missed the blocking, the western Atlantic is much cooler than last year. There's likely going to be a feedback loop with the intensifying drought out west. 

The Euro is just applying Nina climo.

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I don't know if this is going to happen, nobody does. But, it is easier and easier to visualize how it might happen. And you start out with a frontal system getting stuck on or just west of the eastern seaboard around July 16/17 time-frame. Western Atlantic Ridge retrograding and eventually you come around to this look and we're talking about weather that is the opposite of what the last two days were like. Could be a wet and stormy transition to more sustained heat and humidity.

WX/PT

image.thumb.png.0993c58a7af81e5845abce29c466fc4e.png

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4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

ewr is about to get its 7th day in a row of 90+

Newark, Harrison, Philly and SMQ are the only areas to have a heatwave away from the onshore flow.
 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
2022-06-29 90 64
2022-06-30 92 68
2022-07-01 99 71
2022-07-02 96 79
2022-07-03 93 77
2022-07-04 91 64


Harrison’s days are posted a day later than they should be for some reason. The 97° was on the 1st and so on.

Data for HARRISON, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
2022-06-29    
2022-06-30 88 67
2022-07-01 90 70
2022-07-02 97 78
2022-07-03 93 75
2022-07-04 90 64


 

Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
2022-06-29 87 54
2022-06-30 90 56
2022-07-01 95 59
2022-07-02 91 71
2022-07-03 89 59
2022-07-04 87 52


 

Data for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
2022-06-29 88 64
2022-06-30 91 70
2022-07-01 94 73
2022-07-02 94 75
2022-07-03 91 72
2022-07-04 88 68

 

Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
2022-06-29 86 66
2022-06-30 88 71
2022-07-01 95 75
2022-07-02 91 77
2022-07-03 88 74
2022-07-04 87 68


 

Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
2022-06-29 81 60
2022-06-30 84 64
2022-07-01 83 67
2022-07-02 84 72
2022-07-03 85 66
2022-07-04 82 61


 

Data for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
2022-06-29 85 53
2022-06-30 86 57
2022-07-01 94 60
2022-07-02 87 69
2022-07-03 85 57
2022-07-04 85 53
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With the 15 year average high temperature at Newark  of 87.3゚ shouldn't we have a different criteria for heat waves than 90゚ in this warming climate.   Especially when dew points are in the forties and fifties with the real feel temperature 5゚ lower Than the actual temperature.  It's like comparing  3 consecutive days of 33*, 34* and 35*  In early January as a bitter artic outbreak. 

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6 minutes ago, binbisso said:

With the 15 year average high temperature at Newark  of 87.3゚ shouldn't we have a different criteria for heat waves than 90゚ in this warming climate.   Especially when dew points are in the forties and fifties with the real feel temperature 5゚ lower Than the actual temperature.  It's like comparing  3 consecutive days of 33*, 34* and 35*  In early January as a bitter artic outbreak. 

Yes

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17 minutes ago, binbisso said:

With the 15 year average high temperature at Newark  of 87.3゚ shouldn't we have a different criteria for heat waves than 90゚ in this warming climate.   Especially when dew points are in the forties and fifties with the real feel temperature 5゚ lower Than the actual temperature.  It's like comparing  3 consecutive days of 33*, 34* and 35*  In early January as a bitter artic outbreak. 

95+ for 3 days should be the criteria

In this climate 88-92F is basically the norm

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

95+ for 3 days should be the criteria

In this climate 88-92F is basically the norm

 Not just 95゚ but with dew points in the mid sixties or higher. 95*/50  Is not hot and a great summer day.  I'll take that over 80゚/72dp any day

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Bluewave and Snowman 19,  If this nina is coupled with the atmosphere,  Where has the WAR been for the last 6 weeks or so and  No sign of it showing up in the next 2 weeks? We have had nina' act like nino's and vice-versa the last several years. I'm skeptical that our sensible weather will follow enso going forward.

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Here comes the next round of La Niña strengthening. This trade wind burst is going to be followed by persistent easterlies and trigger an upwelling Kelvin wave and significant ENSO region cooling in the coming months. The persistence of this multi-year Niña event is crazy 

 

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33 minutes ago, binbisso said:

With the 15 year average high temperature at Newark  of 87.3゚ shouldn't we have a different criteria for heat waves than 90゚ in this warming climate.   Especially when dew points are in the forties and fifties with the real feel temperature 5゚ lower Than the actual temperature.  It's like comparing  3 consecutive days of 33*, 34* and 35*  In early January as a bitter artic outbreak. 

i agree that we should update heat wave criteria in this rapidly warming climate

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13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Another point to make is that even though we have entered into a strong -PDO cycle, we still have yet to see any cooling effect on global temps. Despite the hypothesis by some that global temps would drop with a -PDO, they haven’t so far…..at all, in fact the warming continues despite the -PDO.  IMO this proves something else is definitely going on (AGW?). Since the 15-16 super El Niño the already impressive warming has accelerated even more. Would like to get your thoughts and @donsutherland1thoughts on this? 

AGW is leading to an increased incidence of marine heatwaves. In the past, the La Niña would have a much larger cooling effect than today. Today, the marine heatwaves offset some of La Niña's cooling influence.

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Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny and very warm. However, unsettled weather will likely return for Thursday and Friday. Showers and thundershowers will be likely, along with cooler temperatures.

The first 10 days of July could see near normal readings overall in the Northeast. A brief surge of heat could follow afterward. Overall, the month will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal. The newest EPS weeklies suggest that a sustained period of above normal temperatures could develop after mid-July.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +8.62.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.804 today.

On July 3 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.460 (RMM). The July 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.195 (RMM).

 

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4 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

It is bone dry out there. The ground is parched. Hopefully the potential rain for thursday night and friday will work out.

Dry begets dry

 

The mid range forecasts have been awful. I dont  see why that would change for a sketchy event on thursday

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6 hours ago, binbisso said:

With the 15 year average high temperature at Newark  of 87.3゚ shouldn't we have a different criteria for heat waves than 90゚ in this warming climate.   Especially when dew points are in the forties and fifties with the real feel temperature 5゚ lower Than the actual temperature.  It's like comparing  3 consecutive days of 33*, 34* and 35*  In early January as a bitter artic outbreak. 

You were fine and I was about to agree until your dew point comment.    

But yea def 95+ for true heatwave in the more urban areas. 

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly sunny and very warm.. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 87°

Newark: 93°

Philadelphia: 92°

Unsettled weather will develop for tomorrow and Friday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 85.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.8°; 15-Year: 87.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.7°; 15-Year: 88.4°

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