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July 2022


bluewave
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These charts do a good job showing how the tree growth began to cause a decline in NYC 90° days since the ASOS was established in 1995. The 1961-1990  and 1991-2020 climate normal periods are included. From 1961 to 1995 the Central Park ASOS wasn’t in the deep shade under the trees during peak heating  hours. So the 90° day counts were more in line with Newark and LGA. The tree growth caused a decline in 90° days from near 20 in 1961 to around 16-17 in the early 2020s. If the site was properly maintained like other weather stations are, then NYC would have close closer to 30 days reaching 90° or higher like EWR and LGA. So the major media outlets forecasting high temperatures  for NYC are all using flawed data. 
 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets/LCD/stations/WBAN:94728/detail

ASOS 1995-11-01 Present

 

OBSTRUCTIONS BEGIN DATE¹ END DATE¹
TREES 2021-04-06 Present
TREES 2017-08-01 2021-04-06
TREE 020-340 deg 25-25 ft 20-54 deg 2016-06-15 2017-08-01
HYGR 090/4 TREES ENCIRLCE/25/20-54 IN FENCED ENCOLSURE 50 FT X 25 TH 1995-06-27 2016-06-15


https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NY5801&season=all&dir=above&var=high&threshold=90&year=1961&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png


B5AD4E4D-358F-4856-9DEF-0A62F3D6769C.thumb.png.d3dfa0f8e228fac5069bb8c5ba00cf89.png

 

C7A74368-D3F1-4DF6-8A2B-D31F77358026.thumb.png.c0b8408a8e6fa6a30b4a2dd61d618cdf.png


F5D712B9-A7F5-4D2C-A3BF-ADC6B4BC2529.thumb.png.a86c85d033be7bb95f371a636a4ee125.png

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These charts do a good job showing how the tree growth began to cause a decline in NYC 90° days since the ASOS was established in 1995. The 1961-1990  and 1991-2020 climate normal periods are included. From 1961 to 1995 the Central Park ASOS wasn’t in the deep shade under the trees during peak heating  hours. So the 90° day counts were more in line with Newark and LGA. The tree growth caused a decline in 90° days from near 20 in 1961 to around 16-17 in the early 2020s. If the site was properly maintained like other weather stations are, then NYC would have close to double the 90° day count at closer to 30 like EWR and LGA. So the major media outlets forecasting high temperatures  for NYC are all using flawed data. 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NY5801&season=all&dir=above&var=high&threshold=90&year=1961&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png


B5AD4E4D-358F-4856-9DEF-0A62F3D6769C.thumb.png.d3dfa0f8e228fac5069bb8c5ba00cf89.png

 

C7A74368-D3F1-4DF6-8A2B-D31F77358026.thumb.png.c0b8408a8e6fa6a30b4a2dd61d618cdf.png


F5D712B9-A7F5-4D2C-A3BF-ADC6B4BC2529.thumb.png.a86c85d033be7bb95f371a636a4ee125.png

Your charts do indeed tell a clear story.

Would it help to widen the comparisons to include a couple of other Manhattan stations, the AMNH perhaps or the Greenwich Village station. That would neutralize the claim that EWR and LGA are reflecting increased heat island effects from airport expansion.

Idk whether any other station has a comparably long history, but the results since 1980 should provide pretty clear indications of Up or Down.

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4 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Your charts do indeed tell a clear story.

Would it help to widen the comparisons to include a couple of other Manhattan stations, the AMNH perhaps or the Greenwich Village station. That would neutralize the claim that EWR and LGA are reflecting increased heat island effects from airport expansion.

Idk whether any other station has a comparably long history, but the results since 1980 should provide pretty clear indications of Up or Down.

The New Brunswick site did a good job of keeping the trees at the proper distance from the thermometer. It’s a more rural or suburban site. So the 90° count has steadily increased there since 1961 to near 30° like EWR and LGA.

B4339B87-E715-42FD-A62B-FED7DF2340B9.thumb.png.f1db6cc6c729f591fc66197a9dc4fe13.png
 


F80104CF-2995-440C-94CE-06B315AE5200.thumb.jpeg.4d1b080628954fd203c47af50a229be4.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The New Brunswick site did a good job of keeping the trees at the proper distance from the thermometer. It’s a more rural or suburban site. So the 90° count has steadily increased there since 1961 to near 30° like EWR and LGA.

B4339B87-E715-42FD-A62B-FED7DF2340B9.thumb.png.f1db6cc6c729f591fc66197a9dc4fe13.png
 


F80104CF-2995-440C-94CE-06B315AE5200.thumb.jpeg.4d1b080628954fd203c47af50a229be4.jpeg

That looks properly set

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A warmer than normal July concluded today. In New York City, the monthly mean temperature was 79.5°, which was 2.0° above normal.

Clouds and showers could give way to sunshine tomorrow. It will be briefly cooler before hotter air returns. Later in the week, temperatures could peak well in the 90s across the region with some spots approaching or reaching 100°. Overall, August will likely be warmer than normal.

Out West, Austin and San Antonio recorded their third consecutive record warm month. Galveston registered its fourth consecutive record warm month.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up solidly among the warmer than normal cases.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around July 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +28.87 (old record: +25.98, 2011).

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.141 today.

On July 29 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.609 (RMM). The July 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.862 (RMM).

 

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2nd warmest and #1 driest July on record at Newark. Harrison finished at the #1 warmest July. JFK had their 4th warmest July, it was the 6th warmest at LGA. White Plains had their 4th  warmest July. Islip finished at 7th warmest. Farmingdale was the 3rd warmest and #1 driest.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2011 82.7 0
2 2022 82.6 0
3 1993 82.5 0
4 2010 82.3 0
5 1994 81.9 0
6 2013 80.9 0
7 2020 80.8 0
- 2012 80.8 0
- 1999 80.8 0
8 2019 80.6 0
9 1955 80.5 0
10 1988 80.4 0
11 2002 80.0 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2022 0.55 0
2 1932 0.84 0
3 1966 0.89 0
4 1999 1.01 0
5 1955 1.14 0
6 2002 1.19 0
7 1974 1.31 0
8 1998 1.34 0
9 1954 1.45 0
10 1977 1.51 0


 

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 81.6 0
2 2020 81.5 0
3 2019 81.4 0
4 2012 81.2 2
5 2010 81.1 2
6 2002 80.9 0
7 2013 80.7 0
8 2011 80.5 3
9 2016 79.8 0
10 2018 79.4 0
- 2006 79.4 0


 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 80.7 0
2 2011 79.8 0
3 2013 79.5 0
4 2022 79.3 0
- 2020 79.3 0
5 2019 78.8 0
6 1999 78.7 0
- 1993 78.7 0
7 2016 78.6 0
- 1983 78.6 0
- 1949 78.6 0
8 2015 78.4 0
- 2012 78.4 0
9 1994 78.1 0
10 1955 78.0 0


 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2020 82.9 0
2 2010 82.8 0
3 1999 81.9 0
4 2019 81.5 0
5 2013 81.2 0
6 2022 81.1 0
- 2016 81.1 0
7 1955 80.9 0
8 1966 80.8 0
9 2006 80.7 0
10 1994 80.6 0
11 2012 80.4 0
- 2011 80.4 0
- 1952 80.4 0
12 2008 80.0 0
- 1993 80.0 0


 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1999 78.5 1
2 2013 77.0 0
- 2010 77.0 0
3 2020 76.9 0
4 2022 76.8 0
- 2019 76.8 0
5 1966 76.7 0
- 1955 76.7 2
6 2011 76.6 1
7 2012 76.4 0
8 2016 76.3 0
- 1983 76.3 1
9 1952 76.2 0
- 1949 76.2 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1999 78.6 0
2 2019 78.1 0
3 2013 78.0 0
- 2010 78.0 0
4 2020 77.7 0
5 2011 77.6 0
6 1994 77.3 0
7 2022 77.1 0
8 2016 76.8 0
9 1966 76.3 0
10 2012

76.2

0

 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2020 80.6 0
2 2010 79.7 0
3 2022 78.3 0
4 2013 78.1 0
5 2011 78.0 0


 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2022 0.50 0
2 2013 1.15 2
- 2002 1.15 0
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I didn't realize July had no high temps below 80 at Central Park, and how rare that is. It hasnt happend since the 1940s..forgot the exact year.  I did once due to training t storms holding temps down that day. Split 99/66, avg 80 for the month with 12 90 degree days

 

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4 hours ago, dWave said:

I didn't realize July had no high temps below 80 at Central Park, and how rare that is. It hasnt happend since the 1940s..forgot the exact year.  I did once due to training t storms holding temps down that day. Split 99/66, avg 80 for the month with 12 90 degree days

 

All of our major stations set a new July record for the warmest July low maximum temperature. The only stations with a maximum under 80° were White Plains and Bridgeport. Even POU had their warmest low max at 83°.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 83 0
2 2010 82 0
3 1994 81 0
4 2006 80 0


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 81 0
2 1944 80 0


 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 82 0
2 2020 79 0
- 2006 79 0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 80 0
2 2011 78 0

 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 80 0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 76 0
- 2020 76 0
- 2010 76 0
- 2006 76 0
- 1985 76 0
- 1966 76 0

 

Time Series Summary for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 83 0
2 2020 78 0
- 1955 78 0

 

 

 

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