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July 2022


bluewave
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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least for our local region, the persistent La Niña background state since the super El Niño Has been taking a break during the first half of the summer. The blocking pattern has been weakening the warm pool to our east. So the record SSTs off the East Coast have cooled while the Canadian Maritimes have warmed. The  SE Ridge or WAR pattern has been on hiatus since late May when we had the record heat on May 31st. 

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@donsutherland1 @bluewave The persistence of this multi-year La Niña event is just astonishing. Looks like a big restrengthening is on the way over the next several months, thanks in part to the strong -IOD event helping to drive the next burst of very strong easterlies and subsequent upwelling kelvin wave. The latest ENSO forecast doesn’t have region 3.4 going above -0.5C until March/April: 

 

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The persistence of this multi-year La Niña event is just astonishing. Looks like a big restrengthening is on the way over the next several months, thanks in part to the strong -IOD event helping to drive the next burst of very strong easterlies and subsequent upwelling kelvin wave.

The -IOD is on steroids with all-time record heat in Japan and record rain and flooding in Australia.

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The -IOD is on steroids with all-time record heat in Japan and record rain and flooding in Australia.

 

 

 

Yep. This -IOD is insanely strong. It is positively feeding back into the background La Niña state. Would not surprise me if it helps this Niña reach moderate strength by winter like some models are showing 

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even the nws gets it wrong for the city.. this was there morning forecast

 

High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
the rest of the day. This should help bring in a push of drier
air with dew points falling into the 50s inland and to around 60
degrees near the coast. 

 

dewpoint has been in the 40's in the city

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2 hours ago, uncle W said:

it has a wnw wind while most other sites are sse...Hobroken is 90 with a west wind...

It’s turning out to be a west of the Hudson summer for heat so far. Most spots east of the Hudson still haven’t had an official heatwave yet. Very strong onshore flow influence with all the blocking and high pressure to the north. 
 

 

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51 minutes ago, binbisso said:

I think the big story through the 1st half of met summer will be the low dew points.  In the mid forties today in July is pretty impressive and we should have many more days the next week or so like today.

the calls of a big hot sweaty summer are on life support. 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

the calls of a big hot sweaty summer are on life support. 

Why do you say this? It's July 4th. We could get a ten day heatwave from July 24th to August 3rd and nobody would remember that we hadn't had a heatwave yet at this point.

WX/PT

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so far we have not had sustained heat unless you live near Newark...I don't mind whats going on so far...A few hot days followed by cooler drier days...the alltime highest July minimum for July is 67 set in 2020...tonight NYC might get down to 65...last July NYC got into the upper 50's for the first time in ten years in July...from 1972-1979 NYC got down into the 50's during July...

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1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Why do you say this? It's July 4th. We could get a ten day heatwave from July 24th to August 3rd and nobody would remember that we hadn't had a heatwave yet at this point.

WX/PT

Sure we can, but do you see this current pattern breaking down anytime soon?

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Tomorrow will see spectacular sunshine accompanied by seasonably warm temperatures. The first 10 days of July could see near normal readings overall in the Northeast. A brief surge of heat could follow afterward. Overall, the month will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around June 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +10.03

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.020 today.

On July 1 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.103 (RMM). The June 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.436 (RMM).

 

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4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Sure we can, but do you see this current pattern breaking down anytime soon?

I think maybe I do actually. I do not know exact timing. But given the computer model output of the last few days it seems to me that the pattern is trying very hard to change. The blocking has to decrease to allow that to happen and something has to trigger the blocking to break down. And I can now see several ways that it might occur. The maps go back and forth and I think the GFS frankly is in a bit of a rush trying to change the pattern, it might be slower and later on. But the GEFS has been trending warmer with less blocking for the passed several runs and the EPS towards the end of its runs has begun trending that way as well. There is uncertainty and the blocking could return quickly. But if we're in a different spot in the flow and the blocking returns with our being under WAR, it's a whole new ballgame. And that's how we'd get a very long duration heatwave.

WX/PT

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The next 8 days are averaging  78degs.(70/87) or +1.

Reached 90 here late.

Today:  86-91, wind w., m. sunny early and clouds late, 73 tomorrow AM.

70*(47%RH) here at 7am.       Whole PM so far in the 70's---78* at 4pm.

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The Euro seasonal issued back on June 5th is doing a pretty good job so far for July. Notice the main theme was the ridge remaining to our west since June. It will be interesting to see what it comes up with for August when the forecast is updated tomorrow. We will also get a hint of how the fall pattern and La Niña could progress. 
 

July forecast issued on June 5th


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Current forecast for the next 2 weeks 


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62D45E22-E721-4E74-A6AA-D71F19AA6057.thumb.png.55927138f107e2413cbadf4ee849a225.png

 

 

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