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Summer max contest -- final results posted


Roger Smith
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For the four pirmary airport locations, DCA, IAD, BWI, RIC, predict the highest temperature to be recorded in the (extended) summer of 2022. 

Deadline for entries will be end of the day May 31, 2022. Edited revisions can be made to your earlier posts without notice as I will not record any forecasts until June 1st. 

Contest is based on lowest accumulated departure from actual, and ties are settled by the lower maximum error applied sequentially until a result is obtained. For example, two forecasters might share a total error of 5 from (2, 2, 1, 0) and (2, 1, 1, 1). The first check on tiebreaker is a "pass" (2) so then the three remaining numbers are compared and (1,1,1) beats (2,1,0). Two identical forecasts that cannot be separated will rank in order of earlier forecast submitted. 

Good luck, I will post some info on defending champs from previous two or three years, I know this is at least the third go for this contest, could be the fourth, will have to look back and see. 

Please use this order to post forecasts although I will check to make sure my tables reflect your actual order. 

DCA

IAD

BWI

RIC

===========================================================

Info on the first three contests: 

2021 contest

 

Rank __ FORECASTER _________ DCA _IAD _BWI _ RIC _______ Total error 

 

_________ Outcome ______________ 97 _ 100 __ 99 _ 96 

 

_ 1 ___ tplbge (19) ______________ 98 _ 100 __ 99 _ 100

__________________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 4 ____________ 5

_ 2 ___ biodhokie (17) ___________ 97 _ 100 __ 99 _ 102

___________________________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 6 ___________ 6

_ 3 ___ GATech (23) _____________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99

___________________________________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 3 ____________ 7

_ 4 ___ mattie g (4) ______________98 _ 100 __ 98 _ 101

__________________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 5 _____________ 7 

 

2020 conitest 

___ Actual to date _____ 100 __ 99 __ 99 _ 101 

 

nw baltimore wx ______ 101 __ 99 __ 98 _ 100 ____ 3 (currently tied leader)

Rhino16 _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ____ 3 (currently tied leader)

Wx Watcher 007 _______ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 ____ 3 (currently tied leader)

(the tiebreaker was the October maximum at all four, the results of that were the same as the above and  had the rules now used been in place, then the results would have been in the order shown in the table above as nwbaltimorewx entered before Rhino16 ...)

 

2019 contest was won by showmethesnow -- PrinceFrederickwx hosted that contest and unfortunately the contest tables are dead links now. This was the first summer max contest. 

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On 4/24/2022 at 5:19 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

@Roger Smith I'm not sure what you mean by dead links, but I remember I did have to delete a bunch of images stored in my account awhile back, because I was running out of space.

Anyway, I have a copy saved on my PC so I attached it. Showme didn't win in 2019 though- tplbge did. You came in last. :lol:

2019 contest.JPG

I'm going for the triple crown this year. :sizzle:

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My entry is DCA 104

IAD 106

BWI 105

RIC 107 

... severe heat in TX already indicates potential for midsummer widespread severe heat waves. 

... just hope you don't get a 500-yr return event like we got last summer (three days over 110 F here and this is no desert)

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  • Roger Smith changed the title to Summer max contest -- final results posted

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