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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, I misunderstood, or else I would have said 1950

Haha I'm only 30 so I didn't get to experience 1993 or 1994 or 1950 for that matter. 2010 was our last huge storm and it was awesome since it dropped 21 inches but we didn't have the wind. 2010 was the storm that got me interested in this bloody hobby.

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16 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

People gotta stop smoking the Kuchie. Those type of ratios aren't usually seen outside of deform bands. Plus winds near the coast especially will knock down ratios. The most important thing, models like GFS notwithstanding (which is trending W) in the upper levels are trending in the right direction. This was evident earlier when the actual upper air observations were showing generally more favorable setup then some of the models.

Hmm how about Bufkit Cobb? How much qpf do you think fell in Jan 15 when I had a near 30 spot.

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Yeah that is def showing the dual low structure...the bad members probably just run with the lead low eventually or consolidate it much later while the snowier members do what the NAM and the OP Euro did....capture the whole thing and tug it back near the Islands and stall/slow it.

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I suspect the Capital District of eastern NYS is the real western "edge" to this one - would not be shocked..

Using the 12z Euro ... which, it's accedemic as most guidance has this below, these are about as close to the idealized jet couplet paradigm for explosive snow shield expansion over/within the cold sectors of winter coastal storms, as you will ever see.  This is the 300 mb centered on 48 hours (Sat 12z...). 

The models are definitely suspect with limiting how far W the snow shield will expand imho -

image.png.a55a6dd39577ba36e25d033e26b10a7f.png

The yellow circle is also the top of the evac channeling for the exit region of a 110 kt 500 mb jet curling around the eastern side and running up N of height falls approaching the M/A.   These models should really have at least light to moderate snows expanding over that region of NY ...possibly as the western extent...  

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If it was juno redux, I would welcome it. Even though we got a relative min as usual, it was impossible to know precisely what we got anyway, there was so much drifring. There were drifts over the fences and bare grass. I skiied to a friend's 2 miles away and brought Glenlivet with me. It was a simpler time. 

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