Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[TalcottWx]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We are only talking about E MA now?

Has that not been the cross hair for several days? I said everyone was being stupid falling for model burps yesterday going that far north and west all of a sudden. It's always been an e MA story. 

 

I don't care how much snow accumulates in Randolph NH where the hills have eyes people live

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

IMO .. as long as the 500 and 700 mb lows track as modeled everyone is going to be very happy. Put snow maps away. Look at the extremely favorable tracks of these lows.. massive easterly inflow.. your past experiences and results in setups like this. There’s literally nothing to brown your drawers over 

Put the snow maps away, unless they jack me, then bring them back out

[78Blizzard]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not Happy!

 

 

We did say last night to wait another 24 hours before doing high fives.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Man you touched a nerve there, that was wild lol.

 

Lot of past history wrapped up in that. LOL it’s all good. Everyone here is friends in weather at the end of the day. Sometimes friends fight over dumb shit like girls or snowstorms. 

[TalcottWx]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you should just let it go...there is obviously frustration given some trends that impact areas to varying degrees.

Sounds good to me

[dryslot]

[PhineasC]

Hopefully we get the 00z Euro repeat in a few mins. 

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, DomNH said:

12z so far has kind of sucked west of 495 relative to previous guidance. Can't deny it. 

Yup ... no objective doubt about it -

It seems to me - if hypothesis ... - these models are almost too sensitive to convective signaling, while not really be as good as some claim at resolving what is real versus model-fractal triggered ( for lack of better phrase...).  They seem to create convective trigger points, or "pull them", then blow them up... but they differ from run to run where?  That strikes me as AI imagination ( again, for lack of better phrase...).  Otherwise, they'd be relatively fixed and reproducible.

This is evinced as true just looking at run to run variances among the guidance ( within their own - );  they are not consistent with where these dual or even triple cyclone nodes are originating, then nesting run to run.  The NAM just sent us 3 consecutive cycles where it had much less of those shearing nodal points... now it has a big one out of no where?  

The NAM may not be right before that even happens... yup.. But, I strongly suggest that it is just responding to this abv sensitivity on this particular run, and I wouldn't trust it.  It's not enough to to think, yeah but that the GFS has the stressing low ... or RGEM ...whatever. Because the guidance don't actually agree very well on where these subsidiary vorticies actually position - 

It seems just as likely to me that we are being given fantasies over all by a technology that has become "too intelligent for it's own good."  I could see the next run of the NAM sans that and put us right back to the 00z/06z type nucleated return, just as easily.  Than we're back to just doubting the NAM in general because it was a piece of shit before having this discussion to begin with ... LOL.  But anyway - 

[bristolri_wx]

4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

We did say last night to wait another 24 hours before doing high fives.

Those GDPS/GFS maps are getting better... and still have two more cycles to do so... and you can assume 10-1 won't cut it, as every single met has said there will be higher rates, more like 12-1 to 15-1... maybe more...  so more interested in QPF maps than snow maps with low ratios at this point...

[JC-CT]

There's a lot we don't know yet, but we should all take solace in knowing that the eventual outcome has already been preordained.

[Lava Rock]

Lol, woke up to 12-18", now down to 4"

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Hopefully we get the 00z Euro repeat in a few mins. 

I love you. 

[NeonPeon]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Look at the extremely favorable tracks of these lows.. 

Looks textbook, mmm hmmm.

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

... massive easterly inflow...

Yeah. True, looking good! The pump is primed.

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

.... your past experiences and results in setups like this.

Oh.. oh, no. Not those. 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s literally nothing to brown your drawers over 

I made an uh-oh.

[Roger Smith]

That wasn't the NAM I married. Now the 06z NAM, wherever that alternate universe is located, they are in for it. 

 

[WxWatcher007]

[TalcottWx]

My pet peeve is run to run swings when we are getting feet of snow and there has been a lot of it so I am being a b*tch. I'm sorry. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

Because EMass has had piles of 20 to 30 plus inch monsters that have left anywhere from a few flakes to six or maybe eight inches of arctic sand WOR..

 

 

True story 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Stepped away for some work and the train wreck came as expected, right on time. The euro just might finish it and send everyone outside of EMAATT off the bridge. 

[dendrite]

It'd be nice if ECMWF could speed up their product output by even 30 minutes. Are they running 4dvar on a compaq presario?

[WinterWolf]

Holy smokes what a bunch whining beotches.  It’s unreadable. GFS Improved a lot for everybody, and in less than 20 minutes, you’ll know if it’s a storm cancel or all systems go.  
 

Then if it holds serve for the most part, we just need to all go and enjoy the storm and let’s see how we all do. Too much microanalysis in here now. It negates the joy, and that’s too bad.  

[ineedsnow]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

IMO .. as long as the 500 and 700 mb lows track as modeled everyone is going to be very happy. Put snow maps away. Look at the extremely favorable tracks of these lows.. massive easterly inflow.. your past experiences and results in setups like this. There’s literally nothing to brown your drawers over 

agree 100 percent   No doubt we'll do really good  if I was in the western Berks or eastern NY I would be worried

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It'd be nice if ECMWF could speed up their product output by even 30 minutes. Are they running 4dvar on a compaq presario?

I think they upgraded to a Gateway 2000 last year.

[Chrisrotary12]

Final call.

[MaineJayhawk]

3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Lol, woke up to 12-18", now down to 4"

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

According to who?

 

[bristolri_wx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Stepped away for some work and the train wreck came as expected, right on time. The euro just might finish it and send everyone outside of EMAATT off the bridge. 

Gut feeling is it's in the same ballpark as 06z.  It really hasn't budged much, just wobbles.

[MarkO]

4 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I love you. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

agree 100 percent   No doubt we'll do really good  if I was in the western Berks or eastern NY I would be worried

Even those folks will be in the 6-12” zone. There will be a huge deform band thrown waaaayyy west 

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

My pet peeve is run to run swings when we are getting feet of snow and there has been a lot of it so I am being a b*tch. I'm sorry. 

"we are getting feet of snow" is the problem some have with your thought process

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, MaineJayhawk said:

According to who?

 

The LavaRock MOS output

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dendrite said:

It'd be nice if ECMWF could speed up their product output by even 30 minutes. Are they running 4dvar on a compaq presario?

Tandy TRS-80 with an 5-1/4" floppy drive