Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Rd9108]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, I misunderstood, or else I would have said 1950

Haha I'm only 30 so I didn't get to experience 1993 or 1994 or 1950 for that matter. 2010 was our last huge storm and it was awesome since it dropped 21 inches but we didn't have the wind. 2010 was the storm that got me interested in this bloody hobby.

[Chrisrotary12]

Can always adjust higher if necessary.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Can always adjust higher if necessary.

 

woof

[ORH_wxman]

EPS individual lows

 

[SlantStick]

4 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Yep, I saw that. Someone's easily measuring 2' under that wherever it sets up.

I'd like to see March 2001 again!

[dendrite]

May have to move that NW as I still plan to steal Ray's band.

[SouthCoastMA]

Seems like a ton of spread on the speed and location of the low. wow

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No I don't see that for you and I. 

You think it’s heavy and wet?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS individual lows

 

That’s a massive amount of spread at this lead 

[wx2fish]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS individual lows

 

Looks like those charts are picking up on the dual low type scenario like that nam?

[forkyfork]

that's pretty bifurcated at 48 hours

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

May have to move that NW as I still plan to steal Ray's band.

I totally plan on it being NW of me...even yesterday I had it NW of me, despite guidance slipping OTS.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS individual lows

 

Is that large spread due somewhat to some having a meso low and just Placement On further East low . I mean the OP appears to be on NW edge of the EPS. I mean that looks pretty darn clear and probably is the western Goal post 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I totally plan on it being NW of me...even yesterday I had it NW of me, despite guidance slipping OTS.

I'm j/k around. I think you'll be fine.

[rockchalk83]

Wagons up from BOX 

[Zeus]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

that's pretty bifurcated at 48 hours

Was thinking the same thing -- two pretty distinct mini-camps.

[HimoorWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You think it’s heavy and wet?

I assumed he meant he doesn't see power issues for this area because it won't be heavy and wet.

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

People gotta stop smoking the Kuchie. Those type of ratios aren't usually seen outside of deform bands. Plus winds near the coast especially will knock down ratios. The most important thing, models like GFS notwithstanding (which is trending W) in the upper levels are trending in the right direction. This was evident earlier when the actual upper air observations were showing generally more favorable setup then some of the models.

Hmm how about Bufkit Cobb? How much qpf do you think fell in Jan 15 when I had a near 30 spot.

[Cyclone-68]

An all timer in Boston if EURO is even 2/3rds correct. Things is gettin’ spooky 

[rnaude241]

55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That destroys you guys. It's like an eyewall lol.

I'm glad I got extra gas for the snowblower already! What a run for this area. 

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah that is def showing the dual low structure...the bad members probably just run with the lead low eventually or consolidate it much later while the snowier members do what the NAM and the OP Euro did....capture the whole thing and tug it back near the Islands and stall/slow it.

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And when was your last 18+er?

Ha, 2015

[Zeus]

Find me the guy that was hemming and hawing about NWS saying 4-8 in Groton, may need to go lower.... bring him to me, I desire to hoot and holler as to the clownery

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'm j/k around. I think you'll be fine.

Oh, I do, too...but I honestly think that death band will be nw of me. But its not occluded, so I will have nothing to complain about.

[giventofly]

BOX updated map

[Typhoon Tip]

I suspect the Capital District of eastern NYS is the real western "edge" to this one - would not be shocked..

Using the 12z Euro ... which, it's accedemic as most guidance has this below, these are about as close to the idealized jet couplet paradigm for explosive snow shield expansion over/within the cold sectors of winter coastal storms, as you will ever see.  This is the 300 mb centered on 48 hours (Sat 12z...). 

The models are definitely suspect with limiting how far W the snow shield will expand imho -

The yellow circle is also the top of the evac channeling for the exit region of a 110 kt 500 mb jet curling around the eastern side and running up N of height falls approaching the M/A.   These models should really have at least light to moderate snows expanding over that region of NY ...possibly as the western extent...  

[NeonPeon]

If it was juno redux, I would welcome it. Even though we got a relative min as usual, it was impossible to know precisely what we got anyway, there was so much drifring. There were drifts over the fences and bare grass. I skiied to a friend's 2 miles away and brought Glenlivet with me. It was a simpler time. 

[JKEisMan]

Yeah, EPS members look to be coming from a bimodal distribution especially hr 48 to 54

[WeatherWilly]

No tv met is predicting that much for RI. We will see what happens at 5pm.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Here was my first call from this morning. Final call to be issued at 12z Sunday 1/30.