Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

For the queens

Look at the weenie 36” total right over Scoots house in S Wey

[ROOSTA]

EYE on satellite, Gravity Waves, Surge, Drifts measured with yardsticks. A top3 in the makings.
The big ones have the feeling of surreal.    

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Coming from you....wow

I need to check this out.

The NARCAN maps are going to have 30-burgers.

[wxeyeNH]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You got nothing in that? 

Wow...I had 18" in Wilmington, but I think Methuen had like 5".

Ray,  I thought you were on crack yesterday with your forecast.  Hope this trends holds for you.  

[RI Rob]

Will be very interesting to see if the GFS takes another jump west..

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, HinghamBoss said:

What are reasonable ratios for this storm in E MA?  15:1?  

Yeah maybe slightly less...I'd prob go like 13 to 1 or so because of the wind.

[rimetree]

Like how it's bottoming out just to the right of the Cape...perfect.

[CoastalWx]

There wasn't even much of a semblance of closed H5, was elongated. Get that to close and could be even more.

[FXWX]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yup ...I wonder if that's also robbing it from being deeper. It's just got incredible deep layer jet structural mechanics... 

980 ...um. 

Don't get me wrong, that's nice and deep and all. But it seems this 'higher upside' aspect that this has had, really all along ... , is leaving something out on the table.  So did the NAM for that matter, as that weird dual low aspect sort of pinches off maybe 20% QPF from getting back W

It's like watching and trying to time a hurricane's eye-wall replacement cycle.  I think the modeling is going to struggle to resolve the duel low structure, but in the end, the incredible jet dynamics will take over quicker than modeled and it will go nuclear...

[weathafella]

Just now, RI Rob said:

Will be very interesting to see if the GFS ever figures out big coastals....

Fixed.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Coming from you....wow

I need to check this out.

I'm floored seeing this amped a solution this close in.  Euro just tore a hole in the atmosphere and puked itself over us.  Stalled E of CHH and rots the deformation band after getting tore one from the low level cf.

[tomcatct]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Nice run AND no reason to think it can't get even better (a little earlier and SW). Trending back.

I am close to you and I'm optimistic we get more than modeled. 

The heavy bands sometimes rotate further west of modeling so I think we may do pretty well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Now we need to see some kuchie/narcan/cobb porn.

[ROOSTA]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Look at the weenie 36” total right over Scoots house in S Wey

Now convert QPF to 15-20:1 ratios. That would be a hellava lot more than 36"

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Someone in Bristol or Plymouth county could see 3 feet with that look 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

All the WOR peeps are either silent or left the thread after that run.

Another mediocré 6" storm for them.

[JC-CT]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

is this the so called narcan?

[Baroclinic Zone]

We got our EE rule in effect.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The NARCAN maps are going to have 30-burgers.

Give it a bit and I'll paste it so you guys can touch weenies. 

[George001]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

For the queens

Holy shit that’s like a 100 mile shift west, that’s a huge shift this close in. If this is right, with ratios there will be 3+ feet in eastern mass!

[JC-CT]

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

All the WOR peeps are either silent or left the thread after that run.

Another mediocré 6" storm for them.

doubt it

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah maybe slightly less...I'd prob go like 13 to 1 or so because of the wind.

We never touched upon this in any classes but when taking wind into account for it's impact on ratios is it surface winds, winds aloft, a combination of both and then I guess what would you subtract off in terms of ratios for wind? This is something I have zero knowledge on. 

[amarshall]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

For the queens

Shocking Weymouth ceases to exist.  Seldom happens

[jbenedet]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yup ...I wonder if that's also robbing it from being deeper. It's just got incredible deep layer jet structural mechanics... 

980 ...um. 

Don't get me wrong, that's nice and deep and all. But it seems this 'higher upside' aspect that this has had, really all along ... , is leaving something out on the table.  So did the NAM for that matter, as that weird dual low aspect sort of pinches off maybe 20% QPF from getting back W

I mean, we've seen triple phasers before -- max potential usually in the 960's at 40N?  what is the history of non-tropical lows sub 960 at ~40N.  I don't know of any 950's examples in my lifetime. I think anything lower than that is suggesting a warm-core sub tropical entity, which never made sense in peak winter climo.

I think 965ish should have always been the extreme high end bar for non-tropical low such as this, at 40N. 960 ish further north in the GOM. 

The 12z euro, verbatim flirts with this max potential. 

[snowman21]

What a storm for eastern areas if that holds. Jesus you guys will be buried. 2+ feet with big time drifts from the 50-60 mph winds.

[JC-CT]

although WOR might not be sufficient for this one. I'd say SW CT is probably in better shape than NW Mass

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

All the WOR peeps are either silent or left the thread after that run.

Another mediocré 6" storm for them.

This gets them all near or over a foot 

[HinghamBoss]

Just now, amarshall said:

Shocking Weymouth ceases to exist.  Seldom happens

South Shore should issue some flares to folks to verify existence/life.  I've always wondered what it would take to really shut down a region '78 style from a storm. 

 

Winter 2015 definitely got close - but that was over a few weeks of storms.

 

  

[ineedsnow]

I think watches will come west a bit this afternoon

[BostonWX]

Kuchera from pivotal weather has 39 - 42 for Bos and southern suburbs