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January 16-17, 2022 MLK storm obs/now cast


George BM
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6 hours ago, BristowWx said:

49 OC water temp…oof

At OC - yes.  If you look at the NOAA chart, the SST's a few miles off the coast, they are still 20+C.  

natlanti.cf.gif

There's an enormous swath of red there.  Relatively speaking, there hasn't been enough cold to cool the surface of the Gulf Stream.  Lots of latent heat to be tapped into.  

Still amazing to think.  My Davis VUE is showing 12F/6 and it's going to rain tonight.  We'd normally be giddy at the anticipated white smoke the inbound would foretell with these temps.    

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Maybe it’s just me, so someone else can elaborate, but looking at satellite/radar imagery it appears the low is reforming farther south and east. Got that look like it’s going to ride either closer along the coast or go offshore. I also notice the snow/sleet line is farther east, almost to the coast in southeast VA and northeast NC which I did not see on any of the model guidances.

115FB782-B0E0-4F8A-9A70-996742672577.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Maybe it’s just me, so someone else can elaborate, but looking at satellite/radar imagery it appears the low is reforming farther south and east. Got that look like it’s going to ride either closer along the coast or go offshore. I also notice the snow/sleet line is farther east, almost to the coast in southeast VA and northeast NC which I did not see on any of the model guidances.

115FB782-B0E0-4F8A-9A70-996742672577.jpeg

Another weenie post that I like.

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8 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Maybe it’s just me, so someone else can elaborate, but looking at satellite/radar imagery it appears the low is reforming farther south and east. Got that look like it’s going to ride either closer along the coast or go offshore. I also notice the snow/sleet line is farther east, almost to the coast in southeast VA and northeast NC which I did not see on any of the model guidances.

115FB782-B0E0-4F8A-9A70-996742672577.jpeg

All models had this low at some point very close to the coast. Then it basically shoots straight north.

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Just now, MN Transplant said:

14.5 for the low.  Coldest since the angle digit temps of late Jan 2019.

I was thinking it was the coldest night in a long time in Montclair. Thanks for putting a time stamp as i knew we had one really cold stretch but i couldn’t remember the exact date. 18/7 currently, clouds slowly streaming in.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

All models had this low at some point very close to the coast. Then it basically shoots straight north.

I didn’t see the rain/snow/sleet line hugging the coast on the model data. Coastal areas were suppose to be rain. Interesting that northeast NC and southeast VA might pick up minor accumulations now. Point is, this thing is already farther south and east of model guidance.

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4 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

I didn’t see the rain/snow/sleet line hugging the coast on the model data. Coastal areas were suppose to be rain. Interesting that northeast NC and southeast VA might pick up minor accumulations now. Point is, this thing is already farther south and east of model guidance.

Pretty much on track as modeled

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18 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Maybe it’s just me, so someone else can elaborate, but looking at satellite/radar imagery it appears the low is reforming farther south and east. Got that look like it’s going to ride either closer along the coast or go offshore. I also notice the snow/sleet line is farther east, almost to the coast in southeast VA and northeast NC which I did not see on any of the model guidances.

115FB782-B0E0-4F8A-9A70-996742672577.jpeg

Look at the MPING reports. That radar derived rain snow line is inaccurate by a hundred miles. 

Screenshot_20220116-081149.png

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