Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 16-17, 2022 MLK storm obs/now cast


George BM
 Share

Recommended Posts

The upcoming HRRR runs should help balance out those horrendous nam runs from about 20 hours ago.

Back in '16, some models were printing out about 47 inches of snow; the reality was about in the middle: 27 inches for Dale City.

In this case, take the worst runs of the nam and the best runs from other models that we were all hugging like a once in a lifetime gf, and average them all out. the outcome will end up about in the middle.

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I’ll leave the snowfall map to others, but the 06z NAM nest is similar to prior.  Lose the column at 5pm after 0.15” precip in DC, lose the surface at 7pm after an additional 0.15” frozen.

Comparing to the 06z HRRR, the frozen precip totals are very similar, but the HRRR hangs on to snow for an hour longer, so the snow totals are more like 2” with a bit of IP/ZR on top.

By the way, for the Winchester area folks, ignore the NAM nest precip totals.  The NAM is too aggressive with topographic lifting.  There is still a 800mb warm nose that is problematic, but you should get more precipitation than the nest shows.  Hopefully the HRRR pans out.

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

16/1

latest HRRR is pretty tasty...DCA doesn't mix until 6-ish or maybe even later...sounds like its been trending that way.

Looks like DCA gets to 0.35" QPF by 00z on latest HRRR... and sounding shows us flirting with some sleet... so I'm guessing that's all snow before... 2 to 4 before being erased by cold rain would be acceptable 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17/1 in my neck of Charlottesville. NE wind at 8.

Will be very interesting who wins the battle of the short-term models.

HRRR gives us 7+. NAM gives us basically nothing. I'll be happy with a split decision.

Will also report how it feels later today, headed outside shortly. Might be the coldest its been here, wind chill wise, in several years. Usually when it's in the teens there's no wind at all.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...