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October Discobs 2021


George BM
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Solid rain all day so far down here eastern Waynesboro and along Afton.... Western Albemarle as well... At times it has been rather heavy... River gauges are starting to respond now as well...Warm tropical feel outside...

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68 and been cloudy all day here. I'll take it.

Sunday looks semi interesting with a high to the northeast and a low off the SE coast. Looks like some stiff east winds and coolish esp further east. Models disagree on rain chances, with Euro and CMC favoring some light to moderate rain for eastern third of the area while the GFS not much to see other than clouds and drizzle. ICON is sort of in between.

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It's out of control down here.  When I come home from work in the evening I have to step out of my car and walk down my driveway before I drive down to scare off all the frogs and toads camped out on it.  All this humidity has made them drunk on power.  

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Blah... LWX AFD from this afternoon seems to suggest weekend could be terrible 

The pattern for Saturday remains uncertain at this time as it will
be heavily dependent on a coastal low off the Carolina coast. Models
have differing solution with the GFS keeping a strong high pressure
/ upper ridge over the NE US which prevents the coastal low from
moving northward toward our region. On the other hand, the Euro is
weaker with the high and allows the low to bring areas of 1 to 2
inches of precipitation to parts of our region. General trends have
pushed precipitation to the late Saturday and into Sunday period
with areas around and below DC experiencing the heaviest
precipitation. The threat for flooding has increased especially if
the coastal low shifts closer to the coast with flooding most likely
to occur if the heaviest rain occurs over our metro areas. There is
the possibility that our region remains mostly dry this weekend
especially if the GFS solution comes true. Temperatures on Saturday
will be slightly cooler in the 70s with overnight lows in upper 50s
to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Come Sunday, guidance continues to diverge on how it handles an
upper level trough across the Eastern Seaboard. Guidance varies in
developing an upper level low and a coastal low along a surface
trough. The potential surface low is being monitored by the NHC for
potential tropical development off the SE US coast (see nhc.noaa.gov
for the latest). Regardless if this system officially becomes named
a tropical system, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible Sunday
mainly east of the Blue Ridge. Impacts are highly dependent on the
track of the surface low, and considerable uncertainty remains.
Regardless, if the low moves nearby, it should be out of the area by
Sunday night with dry weather returning early next week as upper
level ridging builds across the region.
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Still quite a bit of disparity between the models on the late Sat into Sun period. GFS has not waivered on the idea of 'not much to see here'. ICON and CMC, and to some degree the Euro, have trended its way. My hunch is there will be some showers and drizzle here and there with any significant rain staying pretty far south and east towards the lower Delmarva and eastern VA.

Mount Holly's latest take-

Complex and challenging forecast evolution during this period as the blocking pattern continues to evolve. The main players will be 1) a strong high building south over the Canadian Maritimes pushing an backdoor cold front through the region Friday night, 2) a slowly developing area of low pressure off the SE US coast, and 3) an upper level trough ejecting out of the western CONUS which will act to de-amplify and lift northward the upper level low currently over the midwest. At least some of the energy from this upper level low may split off and end up feeding into the low off the SE coast. Ultimately, how these features all interact will determine how this coastal low develops through the weekend and unfortunately that is still not certain. That said, latest runs of the ECMWF and GEM Regional have backed off a bit compared to the 0z runs of these models. However these models still bring the system farther north bringing more in the way of rain into the area for Sunday compared to the NAM and GFS.

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From Mount Holly this morning..

Model guidance has trended towards what the GFS has been advertising with this system, with tonight`s EC run essentially moving all the way in line with what has been the GFS solution. This means the center of the surface low and its associated heavy precipitation should stay pretty well south of us. This will spare us from a heavy rain event and any hydro or wind concerns. However, we will still have a vertically deep layer of onshore flow, and there will also be a long fetch of easterly flow over the waters which will help push a lot of moisture from over the ocean onshore. This will result in an extended period of mostly cloudy to overcast conditions. With the coastal low staying further south, there will not be much forcing to "wring out" the moisture, preventing much in the way of steady rain. Instead, scattered showers and drizzle will probably be more favored, especially on Saturday. By Saturday night and Sunday, some steadier but still mainly light rain will become more likely, especially in southern and eastern portions of the area, as the coastal low moves a little closer. Overall, grey and gloomy will probably be the best way to describe most of the weekend.

It seems the GFS has been "winning" a lot lately.

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58 minutes ago, CAPE said:

From Mount Holly this morning..

Model guidance has trended towards what the GFS has been advertising with this system, with tonight`s EC run essentially moving all the way in line with what has been the GFS solution. This means the center of the surface low and its associated heavy precipitation should stay pretty well south of us. This will spare us from a heavy rain event and any hydro or wind concerns. However, we will still have a vertically deep layer of onshore flow, and there will also be a long fetch of easterly flow over the waters which will help push a lot of moisture from over the ocean onshore. This will result in an extended period of mostly cloudy to overcast conditions. With the coastal low staying further south, there will not be much forcing to "wring out" the moisture, preventing much in the way of steady rain. Instead, scattered showers and drizzle will probably be more favored, especially on Saturday. By Saturday night and Sunday, some steadier but still mainly light rain will become more likely, especially in southern and eastern portions of the area, as the coastal low moves a little closer. Overall, grey and gloomy will probably be the best way to describe most of the weekend.

It seems the GFS has been "winning" a lot lately.

It’s been pretty remarkable from our weather to the tropics.

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9 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

DCA hit 80F again.  Endless summer continues.

If you believe the CFS weeklies and NMME monthlies, there's a lot more where that came from. Very little snowcover build over NA this month and our source region for cold air remains quite warm, so even the cooldowns will be more of a reversion closer to the mean rather than any significant negative departures.

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1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

If you believe the CFS weeklies and NMME monthlies, there's a lot more where that came from. Very little snowcover build over NA this month and our source region for cold air remains quite warm, so even the cooldowns will be more of a reversion closer to the mean rather than any significant negative departures.

The 2m temp anomaly chart on the GFS is basically a + from the mean for the entire 384 forecast, lol. I guess I'm okay with this in October? Going to Maine at the end of the month, it would be nice if it's not in the upper 30s there. 

But if we're pulling 60s through december and january... blegh 

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1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

This weather is so boring. I'd be happy with a rainy day at this point. Cloudy, warm and humid for weeks straight in October is kind of a bummer. 

Looks like the stagnant summer-like pattern breaks down next weekend with a trough moving east as a ridge builds out west. If the GFS is correct next Sunday will be the start of a more Fall like period. The frontal passage produces maybe a few sprinkles in our area verbatim, with the energy passing further north and west. Might be the middle of the following week for the next chance of significant rain.

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