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October Discobs 2021


George BM
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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Precip setup for early next week is one we can dream about for winter. Pressing Canadian high and ample overrunning moisture. As it is, looks quite chilly with highs 15-20F below climo.

I'd enjoy the commentary of this image as NY got blasted while we waited for it to sink south.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

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33 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

High of 78 followed by a low barely below 60 last night!  My garden is still full of lush flowers and I even saw a monarch yesterday.  I like the extension of growing season knowing that 5 months of "darkness" is coming (my term for the too-long period of dead looking bare trees and dreariness)

Same here, also the AFD from Mount Holly a few days back focused on the incredibly warm ocean temps off the Mid Atlantic coastline. 

Same pattern the last four years.  Warm ocean temps reinforcing the WAR.  Was 70 degrees in the surf the week before last in North Wildwood, NJ.   

 

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35 minutes ago, frd said:

Same here, also the AFD from Mount Holly a few days back focused on the incredibly warm ocean temps off the Mid Atlantic coastline. 

Same pattern the last four years.  Warm ocean temps reinforcing the WAR.  Was 70 degrees in the surf the week before last in North Wildwood, NJ.   

 

Time to deploy fleet of floating rigs out in the Atlantic to pump cool water from the depths up to the surface.

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Just now, yoda said:

LWX in their AFD already saying 2nd system could be a high impact event

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Next week looks like it will feature an active stretch of weather,
with two systems impacting the area over the course of the week.
Guidance is coming into relatively good agreement that a shortwave
will be situated just off to our west at the start of the period on
Monday morning. This trough and its associated surface low will
track toward the east through the day, ultimately impacting our
forecast area Monday afternoon into Monday night. A period of rain
appears likely across the area, and a few thunderstorms can`t be
completely ruled out as well, but low-level moisture and related
instability appear to be lacking somewhat with this system. If
instability were to be greater than currently modeled, there could
be a conditional threat for some stronger storms given the
impressive wind field, but that currently looks like an unlikely
outcome.

That system will progress off to our north and east on Tuesday, and
brisk northwesterly winds will filter into the area in its wake.
Upslope showers may accompany the northwesterly winds along the
Allegheny Front, but elsewhere there should be a drying trend over
the course of the day. Winds may gust to upwards of 30 mph.
Wednesday looks like a quiet day as a narrow upper level ridge
builds overhead between the two systems of interest.

The second system of interest will move into the area on Thursday.
While there`s still a decent amount of spread with respect to the
finer scale details, the general evolution on the synoptic scale is
for a potent mid-upper level trough to approach from the west as it
simultaneously takes on a negative tilt. Low pressure at the surface
is expected to track into the Great Lakes, with potentially a second
area of low pressure developing along the coast. While it is too
early to get into the finer details, this appears to be a very
dynamic system that could potentially lead to some high impact
weather. We`ll continue to monitor trends with this system over the
coming days.
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