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Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs

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Sneaky freezing mist in Pasadena. Could surprise some in the morning.

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

Nothing super significant, but the radar does seem to have a lot of very light returns locally. Guessing it's all freezing mist/drizzle. Does seem to be a tiny bit of enhancement the past few frames. I'm using a sensitive color table in GR, though.

That must be it.  I popped legit light snow and was like WTF.  Literally lasted 5 min.  Then done.  It was drizzle up to that point. 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Careful...you're going to get pooped on by weenies now. 

"LET US BE MISERABLE." "HOW DARE YOU NOT BE UPSET"

One of the biggest sources of legit stress and anxiety for many people is fretting things you have zero control over. To me it makes no sense to waste time/energy/emotions because weather didnt weather right. Or anything I have no control over. I just make the best of it and move on. Life is complicated enough without adding bad days because my digital snow got stolen. Lol

I didnt want to rock the boat last night but when MN posted the IAD sounding I quickly accepted all sleet is much more likely than good snow. Def wont be the first or last. Thing is, the exact same setup could hit next week and it would be all snow. Then again a week later and be all rain. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I’ll have to go back through my records but this might be the greatest disparity between my area and DCA/BWI ever. I’m at 45” now and very likely not done. I don’t think there was ever a 50”+ winter here that DC or BWI was in the single digits.  The thing is the results here match the pattern WAY better then the results along 95.  My opinion on what’s partially at play is well known. 

Wow.  I'm at 10.75" for the year.  It's amazing the difference over such a relatively short period. 

(Although I think I'm pushing close to 25-30" in forecasted snow, so I've got that going for me, which is nice...)

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

One of the biggest sources of legit stress and anxiety for many people is fretting things you have zero control over. To me it makes no sense to waste time/energy/emotions because weather didnt weather right. Or anything I have no control over. I just make the best of it and move on. Life is complicated enough without adding bad days because my digital snow got stolen. Lol

I didnt want to rock the boat last night but when MN posted the IAD sounding I quickly accepted all sleet is much more likely than good snow. Def wont be the first or last. Thing is, the exact same setup could hit next week and it would be all snow. Then again a week later and be all rain. 

You beat me by 0.8”! 
 

Actually, that sounding looked exactly as predicted by the models yesterday afternoon. I checked... maybe even better since IAD sounding was actually drier in the warm layer. Figured that would easily wet bulb below freezing for our snow thump. Obviously that didn’t work out.

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5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Yes...pretty much impossible to walk around here...I tried, but almost bit it like 5 times.  

It’s BAD here....freezing mist had coated everything in solid ice. No way I could get back up my 1/4 mile drive if I left. Cant even walk up it had to walk in the snow. Would have been better off leaving the 8” of crud all over it. Honestly. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ll have to go back through my records but this might be the greatest disparity between my area and DCA/BWI ever. I’m at 45” now and very likely not done. I don’t think there was ever a 50”+ winter here that DC or BWI was in the single digits.  The thing is the results here match the pattern WAY better then the results along 95.  My opinion on what’s partially at play is well known. 

Wow, yeah that’s nuts. Just under 16” as of today IMBY.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

One of the biggest sources of legit stress and anxiety for many people is fretting things you have zero control over. To me it makes no sense to waste time/energy/emotions because weather didnt weather right. Or anything I have no control over. I just make the best of it and move on. Life is complicated enough without adding bad days because my digital snow got stolen. Lol

I didnt want to rock the boat last night but when MN posted the IAD sounding I quickly accepted all sleet is much more likely than good snow. Def wont be the first or last. Thing is, the exact same setup could hit next week and it would be all snow. Then again a week later and be all rain. 

Amen.  My kids keep asking me, "when is it supposed to snow," or "how much is it supposed to snow."  I tell them the weather isn't "supposed" to do anything.  It just does what it does, and our ability to predict it with that level of precision just isn't something we can do.  So, if you want to know the answer with 100% confidence, you need to open the blinds and watch and wait.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

It’s BAD here....freezing mist had coated everything in solid ice. No way I could get back up my 1/4 mile drive if I left. Cant even walk up it had to walk in the snow. Would have been better off leaving the 8” of crud all over it. Honestly. 

same...plowing has done nothing but make it impossible to walk, except in deep snow in which case big ice pieces fly into my ankles/shins with every step.  

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Just now, The Dude said:

Amen.  My kids keep asking me, "when is it supposed to snow," or "how much is it supposed to snow."  I tell them the weather isn't "supposed" to do anything.  It just does what it does, and our ability to predict it with that level of precision just isn't something we can do.  So, if you want to know the answer with 100% confidence, you need to open the blinds and watch and wait.

If they like snow, they'll never digest your sage lesson. I haven't been able to do it in 48 years.  

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Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

Freezing drizzle in Montclair at 29 degrees and the sun setting.  Going to be a skating rink

Same here 26 now.  Icy! 

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Just now, Deck Pic said:

same...plowing has done nothing but make it impossible to walk, except in deep snow in which case big ice pieces fly into my ankles/shins with every step.  

Yankees like me know you never shovel snow if ice is coming later.

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Just got in from a walk, ZR misting most of the walk.  Really cold and nasty out; side roads and secondary roads still untouched but the main roads are generally just wet.  Prob have like .75" of sleet down, not particularly pretty or anything.  Oh well.

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27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ll have to go back through my records but this might be the greatest disparity between my area and DCA/BWI ever. I’m at 45” now and very likely not done. I don’t think there was ever a 50”+ winter here that DC or BWI was in the single digits.  The thing is the results here match the pattern WAY better then the results along 95.  My opinion on what’s partially at play is well known. 

Dang! Have me beat by 3.5”! That extra 400 feet doe

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Just got back home near Vienna.  Got called into work late morning out by IAD.  The sleet had just about stopped when I left home and the side roads were meahhh... but definitely passable.  The toll road and 28 were mainly just wet with some strips here and there, and still are.  

The issues were ramps to and from the toll road and 28 and side roads.  The ramps were barely cleared in places.  At side intersections the plow drivers just plowed across the intersection creating thick berms of snow that would be difficult to negotiate, especially for smaller vehicles.  

In "normal" areas of the US that routinely get snow they have 2 teams of plows.  One team of larger trucks that does the main plowing and a second team of smaller more maneuverable plows that follow the main teams and clean up the intersections.  Of course that seems to be an absent concept in the WMA.  

Got behind one plow train on 28 and it was obvious many of the plow drivers have not have much training or experience.  Growing up in Ohio the plow drivers got a lot of practice every winter.  Suspect many of the plow drivers around here have not been as fortunate.

On the way home there was another plow train waiting along the side of the road near the main Toll plaza by IAD.  There were more plows than there were vehicles on the toll road.  Just sitting...  waiting...  and getting paid...  to wait...    

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25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

You beat me by 0.8”! 
 

Actually, that sounding looked exactly as predicted by the models yesterday afternoon. I checked... maybe even better since IAD sounding was actually drier in the warm layer. Figured that would easily wet bulb below freezing for our snow thump. Obviously that didn’t work out.

I honestly think it was more a failure of where that band set up then the warm layer. I mean the fact that weak layer was there hurt of course but we knew it was. Had the band of steady heavy precip that set to from Winchester to me been along 95 like all guidance said I bet they get a couple inches of snow before the mid level warmth got too bad then tank on a couple inches of sleet snow mix later. Instead the banding set up NW and you dry slotted while the warm layer moved in unimpeded then had to try to mix it out when heavier precip did move in.  That didn’t work. 
 

One of the most disappointing aspects though, and more evidence that whole specific discreet details for each event contributed there is definitely a larger factor with its thumb on the scale, is how this storm did get suppressed WAY more then I thought it would and it STILL did DC no good. Maybe I should have been worried about suppression because only about 25 miles north of me in PA their saying “where did all the precip go I got 2” what happened to the 6-12 all guidance showed for the last week” lol. I was 20 miles from being fringed and 10 miles the other way from a fail due to mixing!  That kind of thing seems to be a theme way too often.  This is the 3rd time this season alone I was on the northern fringe of a snowstorm and DC couldn’t cash in.  That’s not normal historically!  

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2 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

i think the DC/Baltimore Corridor boils down to very bad luck.

Monmouth County NJ on the beach, doesn't have substantially any different climo than DC/Baltimore. Mon County are sitting at 40 inches for the year. As an example The NWS called for 6 inches in Monmouth County with today's storm and 6 inches about the same for Baltimore. The result: inch of sleet in Balimore, 9 inches in Monmouth County of Snow. That seems like nothing more than just a really bad luck period?

 

 

Yep. Seasonal averages are just that… averages. I know every storm is different, but there is something to be said about it “snowing where it wants to snow” during a particular season. This season happens to be for the Northern mid Atlantic and southern New England. South/Central PA over to NJ, the greater NYC metro and coastal New England. Aka Miller B city. Up here in Northern MD, as well as extreme N VA and N WV, we got extremely lucky to get in on the southern axis of that jackpot area all season long. I remember plenty of winters in the early 2010’s where all it wanted was to snow along 95 and points east. NYC LI coastal NJ and southern New England (Boston) kept getting hammered while areas 30-50 miles NW of nyc got fringed regularly. 

As for the metros this year… that’s part luck of the draw, part each storm missing something key like a sufficient west coast ridge, a negatively tilted trough, a bad 850 low track, a nice HP in place up north, etc. Because of this, we had no area-wide (coast to the mountains) major snowfalls. Every single storm seemed like a nail biter as far as temps were concerned. As somebody mentioned the other day, it wasn’t a cold or warm winter. Our “cold air” was quite average and it showed when it came to storm time.  We did see a few ideal setups and DC/BAL just happened to end up 30 miles on the wrong side of the tracks.

Not exactly sure if it’s the elephant in the room moving the fall line farther NW, or just a series of seasons where NW areas got lucky. Who knows, perhaps next year ends up being a blockbuster season for the coast and starts a new trend in the opposite direction.  

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It is definitely freezing drizzle and it's getting bad. Area that I had shoveled and was fine an hour or two ago I almost just wiped out on just now. Stay safe folks...going to be lots of falls tonight. 

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Getting some light mist/light rain outside and it's down to 27, so it could get pretty slick out there tonight if that's going to be an all-night thing.

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