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Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs

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12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Your beloved HRRR doesn’t think so.

Thats means we’ve got a chance!

In all seriousness. Look at this panel. Then go look at the radar down in the TN area. The HRRR is clearly underdoing that precip. May mean nothing. But we'll see. 

ref1km_ptype.conus.png

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29 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Watch the activity on the back end turn everything into an ice palace tonight and we somehow trip into an ice storm.

Never know the way things have been going. This is the reason why I am not bothering to shovel this sleet mess. Just gonna be a sheet of ice later and may as well wait with temps expected above freezing tomorrow. Not going anywhere anyways and easier to walk the dog on the crunchy stuff.

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

In all seriousness. Look at this panel. Then go look at the radar down in the TN area. The HRRR is clearly underdoing that precip. May mean nothing. But we'll see. 

ref1km_ptype.conus.png

Haha, that’s my thinking. If it can’t get right now right, how’s it gonna be right with what it’s showing later

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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

In all seriousness. Look at this panel. Then go look at the radar down in the TN area. The HRRR is clearly underdoing that precip. May mean nothing. But we'll see. 

ref1km_ptype.conus.png

If you look at the total qpf panels from the short range models and the nam nest, it looks like even at 18z they average just under a tenth inch of qpf basically areawide (ice/snow) overnight. Def a misty/freezing drizzle type look either way.

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3 hours ago, ErinInTheSky said:

All correct, except one thing: Kuchera maps in THIS storm were actually more reasonable, including on NAM. 

On the Nam or GFS,  looking at the "positive snow depth change" usually is much more realistic but not as fun to look at.

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2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

They haven't even bothered to plow my parking lot. It's gonna be nasty when this all turns to concrete.

They tried to plow my street in dc (there is a fire station on our street) and failed miserably. Honestly they just made it worse.

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Seems like temps came in under forecast for today. Not sure it means anything other than the fact that it ended up colder than thought
Everything came in under forecasted
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Just now, wkd said:

On the Nam or GFS,  looking at the "positive snow depth change" usually is much more realistic but not as fun to look at.

That works until it doesn’t lol. When there is an actual snow event it will almost always under forecast  totals.

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Just now, chris21 said:

They tried to plow my street in dc (there is a fire station on our street) and failed miserably. Honestly they just made it worse.

Yup hahahaha I was actually hoping they would to see the hilarity that ensues. The sleet banks they make end up crusting into straight ice and trapping all the cars. Looks like they learned their lesson.

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1 minute ago, wkd said:

On the Nam or GFS,  looking at the "positive snow depth change" usually is much more realistic but not as fun to look at.

that's what I posted all week and I got poopooed for it 

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Pretty weird shoveling this stuff. Perfect cold powder that wont stick to anything covered by a thin layer of sleet. I cant remember ever shoveling anything like it. 

It's like shoveling glass and small amounts of baby powder. It's surprisingly light and not terribly heavy

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Just now, JakkelWx said:

It's like shoveling glass and small amounts of baby powder. It's surprisingly light and not terribly heavy

Same up here. Very fluffy stuff with pellets within. Was easy to shovel the deck for the dogs. Neighbor is doing our driveway

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

Same up here. Very fluffy stuff with pellets within. Was easy to shovel the deck for the dogs. Neighbor is doing our driveway

For free or they charge?. If it’s free I’m moving to your neighborhood. 

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2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

I noticed the WSW were dropped for many.  Dodged that bullet thankfully.  The WWA is like a comfortable shoe.  Reliable and easy 

And we're used to it.

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9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Pretty weird shoveling this stuff. Perfect cold powder that wont stick to anything covered by a thin layer of sleet. I cant remember ever shoveling anything like it. 

Yup. Definitely nothing like usual. Very sandy and granular but it wasn't that heavy to push and shovel.

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Shoveled two driveways today (parent's and neighbors). It's not terrible if you can get the edge of the shovel underneath everything and it all just lifts up. Heavy though...great exercise. 

Will be interesting to see what transpires tonight. Assuming it'll be light ZR - but HRRR and RAP aren't a guarantee in that regard. They have sleet/snow it looks like - from the crude precip maps at least. Granted...I didn't look at soundings. 

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1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

For free or they charge?. If it’s free I’m moving to your neighborhood. 

Free. We share a driveway, older couple, nice folks. He's out there with a plow on the front of his John Deer clearing both driveways. He does it every storm. 

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Just now, mappy said:

Free. We share a driveway, older couple, nice folks. He's out there with a plow on the front of his John Deer clearing both driveways. He does it every storm. 

Wow that’s impressive. You have great neighbors. 

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Just now, ravensrule said:

Wow that’s impressive. You have great neighbors. 

He's a good guy, contractor, has helped us out a lot. Wife is retired, watches their youngest grandchild. She runs the fence with our puppy when the weather is nice. 

We will have to shovel the walk and around our cars, but 90% of the driveway will be good to go. I usually make them sweet treats as thanks. We mow each others lawns when on vacation, help with other stuff, things like that. Good neighbors to have. 

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2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Um, speaking of neighbors, I have a driveway.

Lmfao. Depending on the size we could probably work something out in the $200 range :P

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