• Member Statistics

    16,680
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    sereinwriter
    Newest Member
    sereinwriter
    Joined
nj2va

Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs

Recommended Posts

41 minutes ago, jayyy said:

The northern tier likely came the closest. The Winchester to Manchester area saw very heavy banding for about 8 hours under those bands. My guess is that we are above 0.8” QPF going off of 10:1 ratios. If ratios were lower, then we saw even more than that. 

I measured 5.5" of pretty much all snow when I first got up and shoveled off my "measuring spot".  Since then I got 2.5" of half snow/sleet mix for a total of 8" of frozen that fell but the depth everywhere is still only 6.5" due to compacting from the weight of the ice on top of the snow.    But lets assume the 5.5" had higher ratios so is like .45 qpf.  But the 2.5" since is VERY low ratio lets say 5-1 so best guess I was close to 1" qpf up here under that banding...which makes sense because that is what all the guidance said the qpf would be only they had that band along 95 near DC not up here.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3.3” snow total from earlier puts me at 30.0” for the season.  Had a bit of sleet as the main precip shield moved away.  Now it’s raining at 24 degrees.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, PrinceFrederickWx said:

"Unknown Precip" = We don't know what is falling from the skies at PAX at this point, but its something!"

wtf.JPG

You know it's been a rough winter around here when unknown substances are falling from the sky, lol.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I noticed the WSW were dropped for many.  Dodged that bullet thankfully.  The WWA is like a comfortable shoe.  Reliable and easy 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, BristowWx said:

I noticed the WSW were dropped for many.  Dodged that bullet thankfully.  The WWA is like a comfortable shoe.  Reliable and easy 

It went the opposite way for SoMD- just got upgraded to WSW (for ice I guess)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

It went the opposite way for SoMD- just got upgraded to WSW (for ice I guess)

Congrats.  Let’s hope you get something out of this.  Sometimes the WSW is the kiss of death.  No where to go but down 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Definitely living through one of the worst forecast busts I can remember. Even those of us who stayed mostly snow aren’t going to come close to what was forecast on this one. Models were showing 6-12 inches here not 36 hours ago, and I might have 3.5 inches out there. This winter sucks.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12 hours before the storm began, here's what the hourly forecast looked like. Not picking on the NWS here since this is what most were forecasting, but it's actually impressive how differently this storm ended up for a huge chunk of the forum. 

From winter storm warning with hours of heavy snow expected to a few hours of heavy sleet, quite the difference from forecast to reality. 

 

Screen Shot 2021-02-18 at 9.51.03 AM.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When Ji said yesterday he saw the back edge I chuckled.  Now I’m not chuckling.  Not even a single giggle. 

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, nj2va said:

About 0.8” or 0.9” of sleet.  Ready for spring in DC.

No question. Pathetic event for the most part pathetically modeled by the globals.  Waste of time hahaha but oh well I got to look at some pretty digital snow. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Checking out my obs on the home weather station online, winds flipped to NE and temp dropped to 26. Looks like something trying to blossom on radar to our west?

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I measured 5.5" of pretty much all snow when I first got up and shoveled off my "measuring spot".  Since then I got 2.5" of half snow/sleet mix for a total of 8" of frozen that fell but the depth everywhere is still only 6.5" due to compacting from the weight of the ice on top of the snow.    But lets assume the 5.5" had higher ratios so is like .45 qpf.  But the 2.5" since is VERY low ratio lets say 5-1 so best guess I was close to 1" qpf up here under that banding...which makes sense because that is what all the guidance said the qpf would be only they had that band along 95 near DC not up here.  

Agreed. We definitely did better than anticipated with banding early on, which saved us up here… big time. We verified, but definitely not in the way we expected to. Models showed that insane banding initially setting up near 95 (MoCo - HoCo death band type depiction) which is what gave those areas 3-6” before the flip on some guidance. However, the band setup shop about 25-30 miles north of the general consensus and those areas closer to 95 never quite got the jump start they needed to overcome that stubborn warm layer . Over 3” fell in roughly 90 mins to kick off the storm up our way (sorry you were asleep for that man, I was hoping to see your and @clskinsfan ‘s names pop up in the thread as that crazy band was parked over the area from Winchester to Manchester) This, of course, was a huge help in terms of verifying the warning. We had 6.25” of fluff when I cleared the board as sleet began mixing in more prevalently , then I measured 2.25” of snow / crust when precip finally shut off for a total of 8.5” of frozen. Roughly 7” remain due to compaction.

Such a shame for folks closer to 95. It’s just been that type of winter. Yet another storm where a 1 degree bust at the mid levels takes away a 6+” opportunity from the metros and immediate suburbs. It’s never anything big… but there’s seemingly always that ONE thing that hinders that area. Really hope the craziness that is March in terms of dualing air masses brings that area their biggie. They deserve a break. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.