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Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs

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Just now, Ji said:

there is no way we got even close to an inch of QPF...unless we had alot when i was sleeping

I have been up since 4 am. We only got what we have and no where near what any model was showing for QPF

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Honestly, maybe the worst bust this year. The two-wave storm was bad but this one really seemed like it couldn't fail totally. But the NAM has been fire all year, so, shrug. Mets called it but didn't have the guts to go against most of guidance. 

I'm seriously considering moving once my job here is done. This is pure torture. 

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Did you manage 5-7" up your way?

Definitely. 7-9” will be common in our area. Def. a shame that sleet made its way in so quickly. No doubt we would have flirted with a foot if it hadn’t. 4-730am was some of the best winter weather I’ve ever seen, and I lived in both Buffalo and the Hudson valley in NY for many years. Damn you warm layer. Sorry to the southern crew :( Just cannot catch a dang break. 

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8 minutes ago, TSG said:

I mean I understand why people are frustrated but there were signs everywhere that this was a marginal setup with big bust potential. We didn't have anything close to model consensus even 24 hrs out.. The 3k NAM was showing pretty much exactly what's happening right now yesterday morning. A little stronger/snowier on the front end thump, but it had mixed sleet/snow already spreading up to NE MD starting a little after sunrise.

People are frustrated because we look at the models in aggregate. Nobody seriously expected the para to be right, and most people didn't seriously expect the 3k to be right either. There wasn't a single model I saw at 00Z last night which showed <2" of snow+sleet at DCA. For most people, that was the last guidance they saw. It was 2"+ of sleet (NAMs), or 2"+ of snow (everything else) at DCA. Yet we seem to have gotten the combo of mostly sleet like the NAMs said, but a much faster storm leading to lower accumulations. Maybe we get lucky tonight? But right now guidance looks like it may be a bust for DC across the board. 

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4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Only 0.46”? That really is disappointing. So many ways to fail.

Yea we cashed in on about 3 hours worth of precipitation as it cruised into WV all night. Good glaze and 1/2” of sleet or so. Disappointing to say the least. Congrats to those that got dumped on. 

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Definitely. 7-9” will be common in our area. Def. a shame that sleet made its way in so quickly. No doubt we would have flirted with a foot if it hadn’t. 4-730am was some of the best winter weather I’ve ever seen, and I lived in both Buffalo and the Hudson valley in NY for many years. Damn you warm layer. Sorry to the southern crew :( Just cannot catch a dang break. 

Yea the 5a - 7am timeframe in New Windsor was amazing. Big fluffy snow that just piled up.

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1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Honestly, maybe the worst bust this year. The two-wave storm was bad but this one really seemed like it couldn't fail totally. But the NAM has been fire all year, so, shrug. Mets called it but didn't have the guts to go against most of guidance. 

I'm seriously considering moving once my job here is done. This is pure torture. 

i thought the 2 wave storm couldnt miss...euro had 13-14 inches 3 days before the storm.....even a big step could would get us 6 right? we got 0(DC metro)

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Back edge appears to be here in Germatnown too. STill getting sleet to fall but it's bright outside. At least I don't have to worry about this stuff cooking off.

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Just now, NattyBo said:

Super bright in Rockville. Guess the back edge is here.

sunny in leesburg..

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9 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

You are an amazing forecaster and I’ve learned a ton from your posts and appreciate your insights a ton, but you did say yesterday to expect a positive bust in the immediate metro this time, no?

I went with 2-5" along 95.  At the time with all the doom posting about the NAM's showing no snow I kind of considered that a positive bust.  Even that looks high though, although remember sleet accumulation counts.  But I really thought with heavier banding it would mix with snow enough...but the heavy banding (again) set up NW of 95 so that didn't work out.  It was close...you can see during some of the heavy banding places pretty far SE did mix with snow.  I wanted to be optimistic.  Figured we were due for something to break good for once.  I was wrong about that.  But my "fear" all along for what could wreck this turned out to be correct.  Even up here I have mixed with a lot of sleet and its holding down accumulations.  

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Just now, Ji said:

i thought the 2 wave storm couldnt miss...euro had 13-14 inches 3 days before the storm.....even a big step could would get us 6 right? we got 0(DC metro)

It literally rained 95% of the time for wave one. I mean the models have been just....so, so, so bad. And the pros, while way better than the models in aggregate, have incorporated them into their forecasts too much. They were onto something last night but didn't have the confidence considering the strength of guidance. 

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Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

It literally rained 95% of the time for wave one. I mean the models have been just....so, so, so bad. And the pros, while way better than the models in aggregate, have incorporated them into their forecasts too much. They were onto something last night but didn't have the confidence considering the strength of guidance. 

It really has felt like a the models have been gaslighting us more than usual this year.  As of like 36 hours the GEFS was trending better every run and had pink down into the metro areas. 

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Do I have to go back to when we were only 48 hours out and post those trend gifs showing EVERYTHING with 6" plus for DC and Baltimore and trending better EVERY run?  Yea it immediately started to fall apart after that and by last night signs were this could go down this way...but this one has to hurt even more because it was trending better until about 48 hours out...all the others looked really good at like 100 hours but the slow bleed to fail started much earlier.  This one actually looked good at 48 hours and then fell apart.   Just because I was worried about the mid level warm layer...and I am not shocked it ended up killing a lot of people's snow dreams...doesn't mean I wasn't hopeful this one would be different and work out.  You don't find it amazing that we keep getting "decent" chances and they ALL break the wrong way for 95?  

LOL, no you definitely don't, I remember it well. I've been on here every day for weeks. When the trends stopped going in the right direction and models were still all over the place with the mix line I lowered my expectations quite a bit. This may be me seeing things that aren't there, but what I've noticed the past few years with setups where large amounts of sleet/zr are forecast is the 3k NAM tends to do pretty damn well with placing that feature. I think it was the late March 2018 storm where it was honking for sleet to move in much faster than most other guidance and sure enough... DC was forecast for something like 6-8" before the flip and ended up with about 1" of snow and 2" of sleet.

On your second point, I do find it pretty amazing. I've argued that our base state isn't what it used to be on here before.

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10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Okay...so why is that? We can't get the trough over us...why? Bad roll of the dice?

My brave second post - I would like to understand the dynamics a bit better myself.  I get the surface low does NOT dictate frozen precipitation.  I try to follow along with the "mets" discussing warm meso's and such, but I would really like this storm broken down in layman's terms.  

I am a long time lurker and I rarely post, but I enjoy following the winter storms!

Thanks

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1" of sleet!  Wiped scraped my snowboard sleetboard.  0.4" in the last hour.  Man, what could have been with these rates...

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Here's the final chart up through 06Z, which is the last run before snow started. I will add the verify line once DCA reports total accumulations tomorrow. Please let me know if they report anything in the mean time, because I haven't seen anything from DCA since 7am. 

Screen Shot 2021-02-18 at 11.00.22 AM.png

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Just now, BlackCat said:

My brave second post - I would like to understand the dynamics a bit better myself.  I get the surface low - I meant surface temperature. Sorry

 

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1 minute ago, Majopa said:

Do you people and the others in the weather watching community ever get tired of being so wrong so often? 

lol everyone look at the FNG

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I went with 2-5" along 95.  At the time with all the doom posting about the NAM's showing no snow I kind of considered that a positive bust.  Even that looks high though, although remember sleet accumulation counts.  But I really thought with heavier banding it would mix with snow enough...but the heavy banding (again) set up NW of 95 so that didn't work out.  It was close...you can see during some of the heavy banding places pretty far SE did mix with snow.  I wanted to be optimistic.  Figured we were due for something to break good for once.  I was wrong about that.  But my "fear" all along for what could wreck this turned out to be correct.  Even up here I have mixed with a lot of sleet and its holding down accumulations.  

It's all because you did that centimeter thing....Leesburg 04 will never forget :hurrbear:

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

It's all because you did that centimeter thing....Leesburg 04 will never forget :hurrbear:

He borrowed your famous trick. Your Sykesville "friend" isn't very happy. 

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11 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Definitely. 7-9” will be common in our area. Def. a shame that sleet made its way in so quickly. No doubt we would have flirted with a foot if it hadn’t. 4-730am was some of the best winter weather I’ve ever seen, and I lived in both Buffalo and the Hudson valley in NY for many years. Damn you warm layer. Sorry to the southern crew :( Just cannot catch a dang break. 

Wonder if the population of Union Bridge will be picking up with the mass exodus of AmericanWx Weenies from the big Cities, lol!

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13 minutes ago, PSWired said:

Where in Annapolis are you? Here in Bay Ridge I've only got ~3/4" of accumulation. Looks like I've been in a dry slot, but that might change here in a few minutes.

I'm a bit farther west than you. 

Sleet bomb continues here. Measurements in the grass range from 1.2-1.8" or so. 

sleet bomb.png

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