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  1. arlwx

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    From the AFD discussion: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 359 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Dorian will track from near the North Carolina Outer Banks this morning to offshore by this evening to near Nova Scotia by late Saturday. High pressure will build eastward from the Upper Midwest through the weekend, then shift off the New England coast early next week. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecasts on Dorian. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure is centered over the Great Lakes while a stationary boundary stretches between the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay and into central North Carolina. Cloudy skies are observed over our region with temperatures in the between the mid 60s and low 70s. Some gusts to 20 mph are being observed near St Mary`s county, with gusts up to 30 mph over the adjacent waters. Over this same area, light rain is observed on radar. Hurricane Dorian is currently off of the coast of North Carolina and nearing Cape Lookout. As of the 2am Intermediate Advisory from the NHC, Dorian is moving at 15mph with maximum sustained winds of 90mph and minimum central pressure of 958 mb. Dorian will continue to track northeast, nearing Cape Hatteras this morning and then into the Atlantic through the rest of today. By this evening, Dorian`s center should be located about 200 miles east of the DelMarVA shoreline as a mid-level trough pushes Dorian away from the Mid- Atlantic region. By late tonight, Dorian`s center is expected to be located about 300 miles from the New Jersey shore. (snip)
  2. arlwx

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 The center of the eye of Hurricane Dorian is located just off the coast of North Carolina not far from Cape Lookout. Based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and Doppler radar velocities, the initial intensity is set at 80 kt. This estimate is a compromise between the flight-level winds and SFMR values. The minimum pressure remains quite low, 956 mb, based on surface observations and aircraft fixes. There have been several reports in eastern North Carolina of sustained tropical-storm-force winds and hurricane-force gusts, with the strongest winds being reported in the northern eyewall. Dorian is moving northeastward at 12 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected during the next few days as a mid- to upper-level trough, currently over the U.S. Great Lakes, approaches the system and accelerates the steering flow. This track forecast takes the hurricane along the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours and near or over Atlantic Canada this weekend. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. The hurricane is expected to gradually weaken during the next couple of days due to an increase in wind shear and drier air. Dorian is expected to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream current in about 36 hours, and head over much colder waters after that. These atmospheric and oceanic conditions should cause the cyclone to become a powerful hurricane-force extratropical in about 2 days. As the system gains latitude, the tropical-storm-force winds are expected to expand significantly. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and in line with the various consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected to continue along portions of the North Carolina coast, portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia this morning. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these areas, where significant, life-threatening flash flooding is expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 34.6N 76.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 36.0N 74.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 38.8N 69.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 42.5N 65.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 46.7N 61.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/0600Z 53.0N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0600Z 58.0N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
  3. arlwx

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 52...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Corrected direction to Cape Lookout ...EYE OF DORIAN PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT... ...HURRICANE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.6N 76.2W ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM E OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning from South Santee River, SC to Little River Inlet. The Storm Surge Warning south of Surf City has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Surf City NC to Poquoson VA * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Hampton Roads A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Little River Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Nova Scotia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River SC to Little River Inlet * North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE * Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA * Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Prince Edward Island * Magdalen Islands * Fundy National Park to Shediac. * Francois to Boat Harbour. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 76.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move near or over the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian should remain a powerful hurricane as it moves near or along the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours. Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds by Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). A NOAA weather station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, located inside the western eyewall of Dorian has reported sustained hurricane-force winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a gust to 94 mph (152 km/h). This is equivalent to a 1-minute sustained wind speed of 81 mph (130 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon near Atlantic Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 64 mph (103 km/h) and a gust to 85 mph (137 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading northward along portions of the North Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are still affecting the northern portion of the South Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states later today and over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early Saturday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Surf City to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday. Northeastern North Carolina...Additional 3 to 8 inches, isolated storm totals 15 inches. Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches. Extreme Southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches. Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island...3 to 5 inches. New Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods SURF: Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning across eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
  4. arlwx

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019 ...DORIAN CONTINUES TO LASH THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 79.5W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of the Savannah River. The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued south of the Savannah River. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Poquoson VA * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Hampton Roads A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA * Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 79.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the north- northeast is anticipated today, with a turn toward the northeast by tonight. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the coast of South Carolina through the day, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected this morning, followed by slow weakening through Saturday. However, Dorian is expected to remain a hurricane for the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Charleston, South Carolina, recently reported a wind gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) at the Charleston International Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the South Carolina coast later this morning. Tropical storm conditions will begin along the coast of North Carolina within the next couple of hours, with hurricane conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday or Friday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or early Saturday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Coastal Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches Far southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this afternoon near the coastal South and North Carolina border area. This threat will expand northeastward across the rest of eastern North Carolina during the afternoon and continue into tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
  5. arlwx

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Dorian continues to pound Grand Bahama Island early this morning while moving little. The eyewall has become a little less defined over the past few hours on radar. On infrared satellite images, the eye remains fairly well defined, but the surrounding deep convection is somewhat fragmented. Upper-level outflow is a bit restricted over the western semicircle of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 105 kt, which is a blend of subjective Dvorak data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB. Dorian is expected to more or less maintain its intensity for about 36 hours. After that time period, increasing vertical shear should cause gradual weakening. However, the system is likely to remain a major hurricane for the next few days. The official forecast is closest to the latest LGEM guidance. Dorian has been nearly stationary for the past 18 hours, as steering currents in its vicinity have collapsed. The global models indicate that a weakness in the subtropical ridge will develop in response to a trough that will amplify along the east coast of the United States within the next day or so. Dorian should respond to these changes by beginning to move north-northwestward toward the weakness in the ridge a little later today. The system should turn northward with a gradual increase in forward speed as it moves through the weakness in around 48 hours. Later in the period, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward on the southern side of the trough. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is fairly close to the model consensus. Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the Florida east coast, users are reminded not to forecast on the exact forecast track. A relatively small deviation to the left of this track could bring the core of the hurricane near or over the coastline. Key Messages: 1. Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should remain in shelter. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 4. The flash flood threat will increase today and tonight along the Florida peninsula, then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic coast during the middle and latter part of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 26.9N 78.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 27.5N 78.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 28.5N 79.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 29.9N 79.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 31.4N 79.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 34.3N 76.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 39.0N 69.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 46.5N 59.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
  6. arlwx

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...DORIAN STILL NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATER THIS MORNING... ...CONTINUES TO POUND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 78.4W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Lantana FL to Savannah River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach FL to south of Lantana FL * Savannah River to South Santee River SC A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas * Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to South Santee River SC A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Altamaha Sound GA A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Golden Beach FL to Deerfield Beach FL * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 78.4 West. Dorian is stationary just north of Grand Bahama Island. A slow north-northwestward motion is expected to begin this morning. A turn to the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn to the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island today. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). A wind gust to 61 mph (98 km/h) was recently reported at Juno Beach Pier, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Devastating hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama Island. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday. In South Florida, tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area through today, and are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area through this morning. Along the coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia, tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Wednesday. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands today. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Lantana FL to South Santee River SC...4 to 7 ft North of Deerfield Beach FL to Lantana FL...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals over 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach through Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches. Southeast Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia. These swells are expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible near the immediate east coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to immediate coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday into Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
  7. arlwx

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 Satellite imagery continues to show that Dorian has an extremely well-defined eye embedded within very cold cloud tops. The diameter of the eye appears to have expanded to near 20 n mi, and radar data, especially from the Bahamas Department of Meteorology radar, show that there are concentric eyewalls. The hurricane also continues to exhibit strong upper-tropospheric outflow. The initial intensity estimate has been reduced to 145 kt, which lies between earlier Hurricane Hunter estimates and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. This lowering of intensity is consistent with the development of a concentric eyewall. During the next few days, Dorian should be encountering some increase in shear, which will likely result in weakening. However it is anticipated that the system will remain a dangerous major hurricane for the next several days. The official intensity forecast lies between the statistical-dynamical guidance and the corrected multi-model consensus. Steering currents have weakened, and Dorian has almost come to a standstill over eastern Grand Bahama Island, with an initial motion of 270/1 kt. The mid-tropospheric high to the north of the hurricane that had been steering Dorian westward has collapsed. Global models indicate that, in a couple of days, a weakness in the ridge will develop along 75W-80W. This would likely cause Dorian to move northwestward to northward toward and through this weakness. Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to accelerate northeastward on the southern side of a broad mid-tropospheric trough. The official track forecast is very close to the previous one and to the corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA. Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the Florida east coast, it is still possible for the hurricane to deviate from this forecast, and move very near or over the coast. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track. Key Messages: 1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand Bahama Island through today and tonight. Everyone there should remain in shelter and not venture into the eye. 2. Life-threatening storm surges and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast through mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane warnings are in effect. Only a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring the core of Dorian near or over the Florida east coast. Residents should listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States into Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 26.6N 78.2W 145 KT 165 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 26.7N 78.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 26.9N 79.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 27.6N 79.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 28.7N 80.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 31.3N 79.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 34.5N 76.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 38.5N 70.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
  8. arlwx

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 ...CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO HAVE DEVASTATING IMPACTS ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 78.2W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for New Providence and Eleuthera, and the Hurricane Watch for Andros Island, in the northwestern Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana * Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas * Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet * Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 78.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of today and tonight. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast tonight through Wednesday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 916 mb (27.05 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly increase after the eye passes. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical Storm watch area by tonight. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Lantana to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River...4 to 7 ft North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through late this week: Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A brief tornado is possible this afternoon into tonight along the immediate coast of east-central Florida.
  9. arlwx

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN EXPECTED TO HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND LATER TODAY... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.4N 76.0W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from north of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 76.0 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward motion should occur for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of Dorian should be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas later today and tonight, and should move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across the northwestern Bahamas later today, with tropical storm winds beginning within the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through late this week: Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells will affect the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
  10. arlwx

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 Dorian continues to look impressive in satellite imagery this morning, with a fairly symmetric area of cold cloud tops surrounding a 10-15 n mi wide eye. There have been no new aircraft data from the storm since the last advisory. However, the satellite appearance has changed little since the aircraft were last in the storm, and the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have changed little over the past several hours. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 120 kt. The initial motion is now 290/10. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer it west- northwestward to westward for the next 48 h or so, with the forward speed becoming very slow as the center passes near or over the Abacos and Grand Bahama. The track guidance for this part of the track is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is near the ECMWF, UKMET, and HCCA corrected consensus models. The track forecast becomes much more problematic after 48 h. The global models the NHC normally uses, along with the regional HWRF and HMON models, have made another shift to the east to the point where none of them forecast Dorian to make landfall in Florida. However, the UKMET ensemble mean still brings the hurricane over the Florida peninsula, as do several GFS and ECMWF ensemble members. The new track forecast for 72-120 h will be moved eastward to stay east of the coast of Florida, and it lies between the old forecast and the various consensus models. Additional adjustments to the forecast track may be necessary later today if current model trends continue. It should be noted that the new forecast track does not preclude Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty. Also, significant impacts could occur even if the center stays offshore. Dorian should remain in a generally favorable environment for the next 3-4 days, and the intensity guidance indicates it will remain a powerful hurricane during this time. The new intensity forecast calls for a little more strengthening today, then it shows a slow weakening that follows the trend of the intensity guidance. During this time, the biggest intensity changes may come from hard-to- forecast eyewall replacement cycles. Late in the forecast period, increased vertical shear and proximity to land is expected to cause some weakening. Key Messages: 1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, particularly on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. A hurricane warning is in effect for these areas, and residents should listen to advice given by local emergency officials and have their hurricane preparations completed today. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the early to middle part of next week, but since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward near the coast, it is too soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3. The risk of strong winds and life-threatening storm surge is increasing along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina during the middle of next week. Residents in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. 4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 25.8N 72.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 26.1N 74.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 26.5N 75.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 26.7N 77.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 26.9N 78.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 27.5N 79.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 32.0N 80.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
  11. arlwx

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019 ...DORIAN CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 72.6W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 72.6 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower west-northwestward to westward motion should begin later today and continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible today. Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm winds beginning tonight. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week: Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches. Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 18 inches. Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
  12. arlwx

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019 There hasn't been a lot of new data since the Hurricane Hunter planes departed Dorian several hours ago. The convective pattern on infrared satellite imagery has been nearly steady state, although the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB rose to T5.0/90 kt. These estimates, combined with the earlier aircraft data, support maintaining an initial intensity of 90 kt. Dorian's heading is very gradually turning toward the left, with the latest estimate northwestward, or 320 degrees at 10 kt. Dorian is now being steered between a mid-tropospheric high centered near Bermuda and a mid-/upper-level low located over the Bahamas. The high is expected to expand westward, with a blocking ridge becoming established over the western Atlantic during the next several days. With the exception of COAMPS-TC and HMON, the other reliable models are in excellent agreement through day 3, with Dorian turning westward south of the ridge and moving near or over the northernmost islands in the Bahamas Sunday and Monday. After day 3, steering currents collapse as a break develops in the ridge, and Dorian will likely slow down considerably as it approaches the Florida peninsula. There is more spread among the deterministic models and their ensemble members during that time, with disagreement on exactly when and where Dorian will turn northwestward and northward on days 4 and 5. That being said, the tracks of the simple and corrected consensus models on this cycle did not warrant much change to the official NHC forecast, with perhaps just a slight southward adjustment on days 3 and 4. The biggest concern will be Dorian's slow motion when it is near Florida, placing some areas of the state at an increasing risk of a prolonged, drawn-out event of strong winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall. The upper-level low to the west of Dorian continues to impart some southwesterly shear over the hurricane, which has prevented it from strengthening rapidly. However, Dorian is expected to enter a more favorable upper-level environment during the next 24 hours, which should allow its structure to become more well developed. Although overall the environment ahead of the storm appears conducive for strengthening, some models (in particular the ECMWF) suggest that some northerly shear could come into play while Dorian moves through the northwestern Bahamas, and for that reason the NHC official intensity forecast is not quite as bullish as the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and HWRF models. Still, Dorian is forecast to become a dangerous major hurricane later and maintain that status as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. Key Messages: 1. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the northwestern Bahamas, where the risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds this weekend has continued to increase. Residents should begin to execute their hurricane plans and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 2. There is an increasing likelihood of a prolonged period of hazardous weather conditions that could last for a couple of days in parts of Florida early next week. 3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida east coast has increased, although it is too soon to determine where the highest storm surge will occur. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida east coast and peninsula early next week has also increased, although it is too soon to determine where the strongest winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 23.8N 69.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 24.8N 70.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 25.6N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 26.1N 73.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 26.4N 75.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 26.9N 80.1W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND 120H 04/0600Z 28.1N 81.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg
  13. arlwx

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019 ...DORIAN FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 69.1W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 69.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the day. A slower west-northwestward to westward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane later today. Dorian is likely to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the Florida peninsula through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from an earlier Hurricane Hunter mission is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday night or Sunday morning. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week: The northwestern Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches. The central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
  14. arlwx

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 Soon after the previous advisory was issued, Dorian appeared to have a bit of a hiccup in its structure. A dry slot was noted penetrating into the southeastern portion of the circulation, with the eye becoming cloud- and rain-filled. In fact, dropsonde data from the Air Force Reserve mission indicated that the central pressure had come back up a bit to around 991 mb. That being said, the plane still measured maximum SFMR winds between 70-75 kt, so the initial intensity is being held steady at 75 kt for this advisory. Dorian continues northwestward, or 325 degrees at 11 kt. Confidence in the track forecast is fairly high for the first 48 hours, with Dorian expected to continue moving northwestward and then begin to turn west-northwestward between mid-level ridging to the north and a mid- to upper-level low retrograding westward across the Straits of Florida. The models, and their ensembles, continue to diverge after 48 hours and have not really budged from their respective solutions compared to yesterday. The GFS is a northern outlier from the rest of the guidance, showing a weaker ridge and bringing Dorian close to the Florida/Georgia border, while the UKMET and ECMWF models show stronger ridges and remain the southernmost solutions near South Florida. Given the spread in the guidance, the new NHC forecast blends the previous forecast with the simple multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble aids, and it actually ends up in a position very close to the tightly clustered global model ensemble means. The most notable change in the new forecast is that it's a little bit slower than the previous one as Dorian approaches Florida. Various shear analyses are indicating 10-15 kt of southwesterly shear over Dorian at the moment, but the global models show this shear diminishing within 12-24 hours. With lower shear and very warm waters, all of the intensity models forecast Dorian to begin strengthening again soon, and rapid intensification could occur. The updated NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous one and most closely follows the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble aids during the first day or two. After 48 hours, the official forecast is near or just above the intensity consensus, but it's still lower than the solutions shown by the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and the HWRF. Dorian is likely to reach major hurricane strength in the next day or two and is forecast to maintain that status until it reaches land. Key Messages: 1. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center. 2. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this week and into early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 20.5N 66.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 21.9N 67.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 23.7N 69.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 25.1N 70.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 26.0N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 27.0N 76.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 27.5N 79.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
  15. arlwx

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 ...DORIAN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 66.6W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northwestern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Dorian. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 66.6 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin Friday night and continue into the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and on Friday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The minimum central pressure based on earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into early next week: The central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. The northwestern Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Swells around the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should gradually diminish today. Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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