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  1. LWX's forecasts for 11/11 morning: BWI 30 IAD 31 DCA 33 (and from AKQ) RIC 38 If this materializes, some will be happy and some will not.
  2. To start off November: BWI 40 IAD 37 RIC 48 The GFS is claiming a chance for somewhere to freeze on 11/9, and a fantasy for everywhere on Nov 15-16.
  3. 0500 31 Oct: BWI 38 IAD 38 RIC 41 I think this makes 4 sub-40 mornings at BWI.
  4. 27 Oct so far: IAD 34 BWI 37 RIC 37
  5. And very brown/shriveling. The showers around Arlington VA gave maybe a quarter-inch.
  6. As of Sunday 10/22, the GFS fantasy-land is claiming cold air chances for the 30th and 31st, but we'll see how fast that fizzles.
  7. AS OF 7 AM ON Thursday 19 Oct, looks like BWI may have a third sub-40 day (40 now, sub-40 on the 17th and 18th). BUT the GFS claims chances for a freeze maybe on the 29th and everywhere on the 30th (except maybe the heat island of DCA). Time to huddle close to DCA and check on soup supplies (after one nice weekend upcoming).
  8. From LWX: It’s hard to believe we’re celebrating our 5th anniversary in College Park, Md. Come join the fun at our free public open house at the NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction on Saturday, September 16th from 10am to 3pm. Visitors will have the opportunity to learn how meteorologists forecast and track storms, watch a weather balloon launch, tour our oceanography and air laboratories, hear stories from a hurricane hunter pilot and more. There will also be hands-on interactive science activities for kids. http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/openhouse/
  9. A strong rain/wind gust just now in Arlington VA. But radar suggests this may be it for Cindy bits.
  10. TOR warning for a severe thunderstorm: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Wilmington NC 455 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017 The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Bladen County in southeastern North Carolina... North central Columbus County in southeastern North Carolina... * Until 515 AM EDT * At 455 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Southeastern Community College, or near Whiteville, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles. * Locations impacted include... Elkton, Abbottsburg, Lisbon and Clarkton. This includes US Route 74 between mile markers 389 and 390.
  11. Tornado Warning LAC067-083-123-301030- /O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0050.170430T0934Z-170430T1030Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Jackson MS 434 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017 The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Morehouse Parish in northeastern Louisiana... Northwestern Richland Parish in northeastern Louisiana... West Carroll Parish in northeastern Louisiana... * Until 530 AM CDT * At 433 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Swartz, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Galion around 505 AM CDT. Goodwill around 510 AM CDT. Jones around 520 AM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Forest, Bonita, Collinston, Mer Rouge, Pioneer and Oak Ridge. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3271 9201 3301 9170 3301 9141 3293 9130 3288 9131 3287 9132 3287 9134 3284 9135 3275 9135 3244 9194 3246 9194 3252 9190 3260 9193 3266 9191 3267 9193 3266 9194 3271 9197 TIME...MOT...LOC 0933Z 225DEG 37KT 3257 9194 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...1.00IN $$ NF
  12. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Parts of central and east Texas * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 555 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A large cluster of thunderstorms that has persisted overnight west of San Antonio will likely begin to organize into more of a bowing line with time, with an attendant increase in the damaging wind risk. Embedded circulations will also pose a tornado risk. Ahead of the line of storms, more isolated cells now forming in the Houston to Austin corridor will shift northward with time, and some could become supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes later this morning. Large hail will also be possible with the stronger storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west of Hondo TX to 40 miles south southeast of Tyler TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 107... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24035.
  13. Oh NO! It MAY be coming for me! The latest from LWX: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Winter weather continues to look more probable early next week as coastal low rapidly strengthens while moving N/NE along the eastern seaboard. While still too early for specifics...nearly all long- term guidance now suggests possibility for at least some accumulating snowfall over much of the area (which is notable if only for the fact that we have seen a dearth of snow this winter east of the Allegheny Front). Ultimately...impacts will largely be dependent on spatiotemporal evolution of coastal low and if/where phasing of the upper stream occurs. This should continue to become clearer over the next several guidance cycles as intra-/inter-model consistency hopefully becomes established. Current timing would favor greater potential for accumulation...as primary accumulation period occurs Late Monday through early Tuesday morning (i.e., a period devoid of much filtered March sun). Furthermore, moisture-laden airmass juxtaposed with anamolous easterly flow in low-/mid-levels suggests winter storm warning criteria is certainly possible across portions of the area. However...depending on track of low...transition zone could set up...which would limit snowfall accumulations where mixed precipitation occurs. Finally...keep in mind that ensembles of both the ECMWF and GFS still exhibit tremendous spread in QPF...and thus snowfall totals. Thus...it is unwise to put too much weight on any one solution as uncertainty remains large. Main takeaway is that this system has the potential to produce significant impacts across the area...but confidence in any one solution remains large. Wraparound precipitation will remain possible through Tuesday as surface low moves away from the area. High pressure will then gradually build into the area through Thursday. Sensible weather from midweek on will be largely dependent on early week system and quantity of any snowfall.
  14. LWX is agreeing that the creeks around DC are getting lower. Drought Information Statement Issued by NWS Sterling, VA Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 000 AXUS71 KLWX 061615 DGTLWX DCC001-MDC003-005-009-013-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-510-VAC003- 013-047-059-061-079-099-107-113-125-137-153-177-179-510-540-600- 610-630-683-685-162300- Drought Information Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 913 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017 ...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN THE DC METRO... SYNOPSIS... As of February 28th 2017, the U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that Severe Drought (D2) conditions have developed in the D.C. metropolitan area. The following indicates the worst drought category in each county where such conditions exist: Severe Drought (D2) in all or portions of: District of Columbia, Fairfax County, Arlington County, Montgomery County, Howard County, Anne Arundel County, Prince George`s County, Prince William County, Fauquier County, Stafford County, Loudoun County, and the cities of Fairfax, Manassas, Manassas Park, Falls Church, and Alexandria. Moderate Drought (D1) in all or portions of: Frederick County (MD), Carroll County, Baltimore County, Baltimore City, Harford County, Calvert County, Charles County, Saint Mary`s County, King George County, Spotsylvania County, Orange County, Culpeper County, Rappahannock County, Madison County, Greene County, Albemarle County, Nelson County, and the cities of Fredericksburg and Charlottesville. A tiny portion of the area is designated as Abnormally Dry (D0), which includes Lexington Park and Hagerstown, Maryland; Martinsburg, West Virginia; and Harrisonburg, Staunton, and Waynesboro, Virginia. (snip)
  15. Link to Cherry Blossom updates: https://cherryblossomwatch.com/peak-bloom-forecast/ I went by Hains Point yesterday, and it looked like about 5% of the trees were trying to pop out. To join the willows, star and other magnolias, camellias, three early rhododendrons, pink buds, along with the daffodils and the usual early suspects. I wonder to what extent the temperatures early Saturday and Sunday will slow things down. Still at 6 on my winter scale (cold, precip, not both).