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arlwx

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  1. A cartopper in Arlington VA. As of 5 am, DCA didn't go below 34 for the entire event. NO shoveling!
  2. arlwx

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    My storm total in Arlington VA was 9.5. I had gotten a path cleared to my car, but now I have to do that and the car ALL OVER AGAIN.
  3. arlwx

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    WTOP just reported that (Metrorust) will stop service at the ends of their current runs. (Metrosnail) was not said to be affected, but with totals above 8 inches, I expect aboveground stations to be affected.
  4. arlwx

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    Calvert County schools just said they would close.
  5. arlwx

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    St Mary's schools just threw in the towel too.
  6. arlwx

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    Charles County also gave students tomorrow off.
  7. arlwx

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    In Northern VA, only Loudoun and Manassas Park haven't yet decided to close schools on Monday. In MD, only PG decided yet to close schools. https://wtop.com/closings-and-delays/
  8. arlwx

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    Visibility down towards 1/2 mile in Arlington VA. ((WHO worked to dump this much s*** on me??))
  9. arlwx

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    At 2 pm, I had 6.7 inches in Arlington VA. I got my car mostly cleaned off, was too cold to continue, went inside and around 3 pm it started sticking again. Eyeball guesstimate: ANOTHER 3/4 to one inch.
  10. arlwx

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    As of 1055 am: 6.2" in Arlington VA. Intellicast showed some pink for a while just to my south, but then it turned blue again.
  11. arlwx

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    5.7" in Arlington VA.
  12. arlwx

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    The latest from LWX: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Forecast is largely on track this morning as surface low moves eastward from Tennessee and redevelops along the North Carolina coastline before moving east-northeastward and out to sea tonight. At the same time, the upper level trough will close off this afternoon and track overhead this evening. Widespread light to moderate snow is being observed this morning with generally 2-4" already reported across the area as of 3 AM. Continued light to moderate snow, with occasional heavier bursts, is expected through today for much of the region as isentropic lift and upper level forcing persist through the day, with a couple exceptions. Drier air will work into portions of northern/western MD and eastern WV after sunrise, and this will curtail snow amounts/intensity. Additionally, warmer air will push northward into portions of central VA and southern MD, introducing sleet/rain/freezing rain to that region heading into Sunday morning. Between these areas the most significant amounts are expected to occur. Models are also indicating that a deformation band may occur again late this afternoon and evening as the upper level low traverses, and this is currently progged to occur near the I-95 corridor, with the localized highest amounts likely where this sets up. Total snowfall amounts expected to range from 6-10" across the DC metro area and across much of northern VA, tapering to 4-7" north towards the PA/MD border where drier air will cut down on amounts, and 4-8" towards southern MD and central VA near Spotsylvania/Orange/Albemarle where mixing occurs. In these areas, a light glaze to up to a tenth of an inch of ice is also forecast. Snow will then taper off and end during the overnight hours. Highs today generally 28-35F, with lows tonight in the 20s. &&
  13. As for headlines, did upgrade the advisory to a warning for the northern Shenandoah Valley and the Washington Metropolitan area. Am concerned that east-west oriented banding may cause locally higher amounts across these areas. Frontogenetical forcing increases as the low passes by to the south late tonight into Sunday morning, and looking at the 00z nam bufkit, did notice the Eqivalent Potential Temperatures nearly neutral with height for a period between 06 and 12z along with slightly negative EPV and Frontogenetical forcing that lines up, suggesting that CSI banding is possible. Elsewhere, left the headlines from the previous forecast. Still looking at a most likely of 2-5 inches across northern Maryland, the eastern Panhandle of West Virginia and the Baltimore Metropolitan areas, with 4-7 inches elsewhere. Do want to point out that there is still uncertainty regarding the placement and location of any banding precipitation and also with the track of the low. Any slight change in either direction will have an impact on snowfall totals. Having that been said, there will be impact from snow across the entire CWA tonight into Sunday.
  14. arlwx

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    VDOT plows already onboard in SW VA. http://vdotplows.org/
  15. And the latest AFD from LWX. .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will track through the Gulf Coast States Saturday into Saturday evening before transferring its energy to a coastal low off the North and South Carolina Coast by Sunday morning. The low will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Sunday and high pressure will return for Sunday night. The closed upper- level low associated with this system will get sheared apart as it runs into a strong confluence zone, with shortwave energy and jet maxes passing through Saturday into Sunday. For Saturday...High pressure will remain over New England while the surface ridge axis extends down through the Mid-Atlantic. The low and mid-level flow will back to the southwest, causing relatively warmer and more moist air to overrun the surface cold air in plac. At the same time, shortwave energy well ahead of the upper-level low will pass through the area. The overrunning and shortwave energy should be enough to cause snow to break out over much of the area, first across the Potomac Highlands and Shenanodah Valley Saturday morning and across the rest of the area Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will remain below freezing or drop below freezing after precipitation begins, so accumulating snow is likely. The same pattern will persist for Saturday night with low pressure transferring its energy to a coastal low as it passes by to the south. Overrunning and shortwave energy will continue to bring snow across the area with accumulation likely. The coastal low will will move out to sea Sunday and high pressure will wedge down from the north. This will cause snow to gradually end from north to south. Details are still a little uncertain at this time. Latest 00z guidance shows that the best chance for additional snow accumulation will be south of Interstate 66 and US 50. High pressure will continue to wedge into the area Sunday night. Most areas across the northern and central CWA should turn out dry, but a little light snow or flurries cannot be ruled out across central Virginia into southern Maryland where leftover moisture will be tough to scour out. As for accumulations, it does appear that snowfall rates will be on the light to perhaps occasionally moderate side. This is because the primary forcing mechanism appears to be overrunning. Strong frontogentical forcing appears that it will remain to our south, closer to the low. Therefore, latest thinking for most likely snow amounts are around 2-4 inches near the Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas into northern and central Maryland as well as northern Virginia. Farther south and west, 4 to 8 inches are most likely at this time. The reason for the higher amounts is that moisture will be a bit deeper closer to the low and farther from the drier air associated with the high. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for these areas (Potomac Highlands into central Virginia and extreme southern Maryland). Most likely forecast do have amounts below temporal criteria for a warning, (5" in 12 hours and 7" in 24 hours), but still several inches of snow are likely at this point. Also, there is still some uncertainty with the low track Sunday morning. Some outlying guidance suggest that heavier snow is still possible across these areas. Therefore, a Watch has been issued.
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