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About winterymix

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    A mile east of Glyndon

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  1. Don, thank you for initiating this important forum thread. In my opinion, academic-based climate science lacks a much-needed legal-judicial administrative structure and our state governments lack effective state to state climate laws and climate statutes. Each of our fifty state governments must put forth a plan with the goal of each state leaving the best possible state climate for future generations. We collectively created the problem and we all collectively set for the solution. Influential climate experts need to create a legal backstop similar to that of the American Medical Association. Our best climatologists need to speak to all of our citizens with a compelling voice. Consider the manner in which physicians have stabilized their profession with post-graduate board exams and detailed state law throughout the USA. If some evidence-based-medicine denier starts tweeting that modern medicine is a contrivance, the general public will shrug off the kook and turn to a qualified health care expert. The climate experts must invite all of us here, around the US and around the world to access the best possible version of the truth regarding climate change. The problem facing modern meteorology and modern climatology is that anyone can post worthless drivel without repudiation. Gosh, rumors abound of a US president that posted a Sharpie-faked hurricane prognostication. Perhaps we need a Cabinet level Department of the Climate, if only without any political bias. If our nation continues to pursue climate policy slathered with political bias, we've declared war upon our planet. Based upon recent US trends, historically poor decision making has become a form of persistence.
  2. etudiant: Do you understand what it takes to get a scientific study published in a career-leading scientific journal? Do you understand the scientific ethics involved? if you are not a scientist with university-level qualifications and haven't completed a college curriculum that exposes students to the scientific method you wouldn't know how and why scientists work towards a consensus. Areas that can be analyzed and modelled become established scientific concepts over time. Areas of knowledge that are challenging to analyze leave room for opposing scientific theories. Regarding modern climatology, enough is settled to deserve consensus. Over 97% of the World's top scientific experts agree that anthropomorphic influences are inducing changes in the planet's land, air and water. These experts are referred to as scientists because they have the intelligence, training, ethics and experience to put forth the best possible version of reality, knowledge and the truth. Unless you have superior intelligence, education, colleagues and insight and defer to experts with qualifications, you are deliberately drawing your thoughts from an inferior path. Knowing less, comprehending less and understanding less than accomplished scientists is an unwise but deliberate choice.
  3. Thanks, am open to meteorologists' advice.
  4. In the last couple of frames, the eye center seems to slip NNE very slightly.
  5. The mid-west ridge is having a large steering effect. Watch out, Wilmington, NC.
  6. With possible storm surge up to 23 feet, he can be a building that holds together but under water.
  7. EURO 48. The Atlantic ridge weakens, moves east, perhaps Dorian turns poleward and LF a bit further north than previously thought?
  8. Certainly appears that Dorian is tucked into this 500 mb alley. EURO 24
  9. GFS slows down the storm near and west of Jacksonville and slowly dumps 15 +/- inches of rain on that area. Most of the models slow the system's forward progress at Florida so look for more damage from the choking rains and not so much from the wind and storm surge.
  10. With the slow or no movement, the latent heat of the GOM will mix out.
  11. But...I live 12 to 14 miles from you and find your posts to be interesting, some of the best in the sub forum. Two interesting ideas about late season snows; a. very warm days can follow soon after late-winter/early-spring snow. I remember, waaay back in the 60s walking to elementary school through about 4 to 5 inches of slushy snow and then on the way home from school, it was 77 deg. F. b. for those with bare patches of the lawn, spreading grass seed before a late season snow can yield a high germination rate.
  12. The weather affects some people in a individual manner. Some people get migraines when the sun flickers through barren tree limbs during winter. Some get migraines from movement of frontal systems and energetic pressure changes. Some are apprehensive about being in any car when the roads are the least bit slippery. Some suffer from excess UV exposure. Some of scared of being snowed in their homes during a power failure. Some have a surging blood pressure during thunder and lightning. Others have mentioned allergy-related health challenges. I doubt this forum has evil people that wish that their favorite weather will torment another person. Still, this is the appropriate forum forum people to discuss the types of weather that they find fascinating. There are probably forums that provide support and empathy for those that crave living in an entirely non-threatening safe space.