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winterymix

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About winterymix

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBWI
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    Male
  • Location:
    A mile east of Glyndon

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  1. scattered reports of 30' waves offshore
  2. Good luck to you and your family.
  3. Dvorak technique shows that the more intense cloud structures are moving away from the center. Fairly obvious indication of non-intensification.
  4. The Gulf coast isn't a choice place to live for those that want to avoid any negative impacts from tropical systems.
  5. It isnt intensifying much. Eye is a bit open and has clouded over. If it is moving 24 mph, shear is generated relative to the surrounding air mass, enough shear to put a clutch on intensification.
  6. poofing but still not blowing its top
  7. Updated GFS indicates the OTS solution holding.
  8. With satellite animation, NW aspect of inner eye wall looks to be eroding perhaps from dry air ingestion and/or upwelling of cooler ocean temperatures. With so much major hurricane traffic, latent heat of the west Atlantic is being effectively mixed out.
  9. Jose is functioning somewhat like a cut off low. It is a hybrid with slight residual tropical characteristics. The baroclinic zone associated with the Gulf Stream provides enough latent heat to keep a system going. Jose has several levels greater vorticity than a weak depression or open wave. Jose is a picture of equilibrium, slowly weakening with very weak steering currents. As Jose weakens, it will become less stacked much like a decaying mature cut off low where the various upper levels loose register with the SLP.
  10. It has been pointed out by NHC that a trough extends southwest from Jose almost to the GOM and this opens up a weakness in the western-Atlantic ridge. This seems to be reason enough to expect Maria to trend north and eventually NNE.
  11. DR: This article cited below is not quite what you are looking for but does illustrate the mindset documented in the year 1947: http://sunburn.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/CEDAR_files/cedar63.pdf
  12. Jose has been a named system for ten days already and is moving at a leasurely 8 mph. Persistence is a useful tool in appropriate situations and Jose seems to be one of those. Worst case scenario seems to be that Jose will continue to be a slow moving system as either a weak hurricane or as a steady state tropical storm. Sure, Jose can visit at or near the US coastline after about five days but it doesn't seem that Jose will have any ugly surprises up its sleeves. The potential for strengthening seems quite limited.
  13. Two of the tropical models see something similar with an approach to the coastline at 120 hours. It seems Jose is a surfer's dream with nice rollers when conditions are just right. Nothing destructive though and an eventual OTS finale.
  14. I'm no expert for marine forecasting but it seems likely to me that cruise ships off the coasts of mid-Atlantic and off of the coasts of New England are going to modify their plotted courses as a function of avoiding choppy seas secondary to Jose.