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August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The heat Island around Central Park has been fairly constant for a long time now. This recent rise is a result of warmer overall temperatures. You can see similar similar cool temperature benchmarks getting pushed back in the surrounding areas also. 

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There is no doubt the temps have warmed thru out the area, city and country. I am simply saying on night time lows on no wind nights, the city is much warmer and last night was one of those nights. The heat island does nothing but get worse with all the large buildings going up the past 10  years, it is getting hard to tell where Manhattan ends and Brooklyn and Queens begin. So much building in western areas of Queens and Brooklyn.

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1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Latest GFS seems to show temps in the 80s until a quick brief cool down around Wednesday. Best chance for 90 looks like Friday or possibly Thursday.

Looks like the euro is similar to the GFS, with the best chance of 90 + temperatures on Friday, and possibly Thursday. then after that the Euro seems to have quite a cool down

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Lots of model differences tropics to se Canada the next week.  Since I had a sneak broad peek at 850 temps this coming week... am not straying from the 810A post. Need to figure out if the 12z/20 EC is loner on big heat this week... has 21C 850MB T at NYC 12z Thu.  I see the UK/GGEM/GFS want to try to cool it down mid week as does the 12z/20 GEFS.  EC op says no go but have not looked at EPS nor high res EC.  For me, staying on course with the EC for now but can see it/and I may need to adjust with a faster CFP Wed or Thu?  Just don't know. .

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On beach in  CI.      My T read remotely is just 76* at 3pm.      Best conditions during next 7 days, I bet.

Note that all rides have been closed the entire season.    Boardwalk concessions have been mostly opened.      The NY Aquarium will try a second opening by reservation only on Aug. 27th.

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3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

it. hit. 96. last. october.

why do people keep forgetting what's been happening the past decade? it hit 80 in february. lol

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27 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

why do people keep forgetting what's been happening the past decade? it hit 80 in february. lol

The dichotomy of that still baffles me. Pleasant 80 degree weather mixed with impending climate doom. 

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42 minutes ago, Nibor said:

The dichotomy of that still baffles me. Pleasant 80 degree weather mixed with impending climate doom. 

We have several respected posters here who still don't believe that's a thing.

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i like this climate pattern we are in milder winters but still good enough for snow... it's better than it was in the 80;s where you had many days in nyc during the winter when temps would end up in the single digits at nite..

 

 

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At least the rate that the trees were dropping leaves has slowed a bit in the last few days. But now I have some trees that are totally bare on the south side with leaves only on the north side. The landscapers have been doing some early fall leaf clean ups.

 

 

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1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

i like this climate pattern we are in milder winters but still good enough for snow... it's better than it was in the 80;s where you had many days in nyc during the winter when temps would end up in the single digits at nite..

 

 

I forgot about the 80 in Feb when there was a foot of snow the first day of Spring...at my age I like it milder and snowier...

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5 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I forgot about the 80 in Feb when there was a foot of snow the first day of Spring...at my age I like it milder and snowier...

I don't think you are alone with liking it milder. I believe the earth is warming, I just don't believe the gloom and doom scenario.

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15 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I forgot about the 80 in Feb when there was a foot of snow the first day of Spring...at my age I like it milder and snowier...

You wonder if we can ever top the 09-10 to 17-18 period for snowfall. We broke just about every previous snowfall record with the exception of 95-96. I guess we will find out if it was just a transition period.

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You wonder if we can ever top the 09-10 to 17-18 period for snowfall. We broke just about every previous snowfall record with the exception of 95-96. I guess we will find out if it was just a transition period.

I'm worried more about repeating the 80s or the 96-2000 period

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm worried more about repeating the 80s or the 96-2000 period

After the last delightful almost eight months, I’m just worried about what’s next. As always  ......

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You wonder if we can ever top the 09-10 to 17-18 period for snowfall. We broke just about every previous snowfall record with the exception of 95-96. I guess we will find out if it was just a transition period.

I realize there's a lot that goes into these blizzards we've been hit with but if nothing else, warmer SSTs will allow for stronger moisture fetch to feed the beasts.  We are getting Georgia moisture but with more exposure to cA airmasses.  I have a jar on my desk that I put 50 cents into every time I read the phrase "record PWATs" on the board or in an AFD, and this year I saved up enough for a new Bentley Arnage.

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11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm worried more about repeating the 80s or the 96-2000 period

We will find out next winter. Making a third consecutive below normal snowfall season would be a first since the 1980s and 1990s. Ever since 2002-2003, our only back to back down snowfall years were 06-07 to 07-08  along with 18-19 to 19-20. 

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You wonder if we can ever top the 09-10 to 17-18 period for snowfall. We broke just about every previous snowfall record with the exception of 95-96. I guess we will find out if it was just a transition period.

Let’s hope and pray for a warm, snowless winter.  
I understand the desire for a big snowstorm, but our country and our economy does not need any more business interruptions.  We need a smooth winter where we can get back to normal.  We do not need any more prolonged interruptions 

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25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You wonder if we can ever top the 09-10 to 17-18 period for snowfall. We broke just about every previous snowfall record with the exception of 95-96. I guess we will find out if it was just a transition period.

incredible run.   only thing missing for me was a March 1888 redux

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

incredible run.   only thing missing for me was a March 1888 redux

And this is true as well.  The winters since '08 have been unreal.  But lets not get too greedy and lets look at the larger picture.  We need a winter that will not interrupt business this winter.  Snowstorms only on weekends.   Warm and snowless during workweek.

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6 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

And this is true as well.  The winters since '08 have been unreal.  But lets not get too greedy and lets look at the larger picture.  We need a winter that will not interrupt business this winter.  Snowstorms only on weekends.   Warm and snowless during workweek.

JB is going warm and snowless for us this year....maybe he'll be right....

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

JB is going warm and snowless for us this year....maybe he'll be right....

Wouldn't that be a switch from the man who always calls for a snowy and cold winter?  Its almost like the oil companies pay him to shill

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38 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm worried more about repeating the 80s or the 96-2000 period

We seem to be entering a period where the SE Ridge is becoming too strong, causing the storms to ride inland, and a general Nina-ish overall pattern where the upper Midwest, NNE and West have the best winters. We’ve had this two years in a row now so hopefully year 3 can be a change from this. We could certainly use the NAO cooperating during the winter for a change which forces a further south track. 

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1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

I realize there's a lot that goes into these blizzards we've been hit with but if nothing else, warmer SSTs will allow for stronger moisture fetch to feed the beasts.  We are getting Georgia moisture but with more exposure to cA airmasses.  I have a jar on my desk that I put 50 cents into every time I read the phrase "record PWATs" on the board or in an AFD, and this year I saved up enough for a new Bentley Arnage.

Our snowfall variation has become much more extreme since the 1990s. It’s either a much above normal season or much below. Those mid 20s snowfall seasons that used to be common have become few and far between.

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51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Our snowfall variation has become much more extreme since the 1990s. It’s either a much above normal season or much below. Those mid 20s snowfall seasons that used to be common have become few and far between.

It’s been big time boom or bust. Patterns like to lock set and load. It just depends on which side your on. I fully expect some mega blizzards in the future until we become too warm for much snow. That would be 50 plus years from now 

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 the 1980's were colder than the 2010's-20's...the Oceans were colder too...from 1970-71 to 1989-90 NYC averaged 20.6" of snow...the 1990's with the help of 1993-94 and 1995-96 averaged around 25" a season...the last twenty years are averaging 32" a season...not to mention how many 20" snowfalls we had since 1996...

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since 1990-91...

...winters with...

less than 10"...4

10-19.9............7

20-29.9............5

30-39.9.............3

40-49.9.............5

50+....................6

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The coolest temperatures since mid-June covered many parts of the area. Low temperatures included:

Albany: 48° (coolest since June 14: 43°)
Allentown: 54° (coolest since June 17: 53°)
Boston: 61° (coolest since July 17: 59°)
Bridgeport: 61° (coolest since June 17: 58°)
Islip: 60° (coolest since June 17: 56°)
New York City: 62° (coolest since June 17: 60°)
Newark: 61° (coolest since June 17: 60°)
Philadelphia: 64° (coolest since August 17: 63°)
Poughkeepsie: 50° (coolest since June 16: 49°)

Noticeably warmer weather will likely arrive this weekend. Readings could approach or reach 90° in much of the region early next week.

Temperatures remained warmer than normal in many parts of the Southwest, even as temperatures backed off their recent extreme levels. Select high temperatures included:

Death Valley, CA: 122°
Flagstaff: 89°
Kingman, AZ: 107° (tied record set in 1915)
Lake Havasu City, AZ: 115°
Las Vegas: 112° (old record: 110°, 1950)
Mesa, AZ: 109°
Needles, CA: 118°
Palm Springs, CA: 109°
Phoenix: 112°
Stockton, CA: 97°
Tucson: 107°
Yuma, AZ: 107°

Phoenix has an implied 99% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature of 96.5° - 96.9°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. Since recordkeeping began in August 1895, two years saw both July and August rank among Phoenix's 20 warmest months on record: 2007 and 2019. It is all but certain that 2020 will become the third such case.

Consistent with the forecasts related to climate change, Phoenix has been witnessing an increased number of annual days on which the temperature reaches 100° or above and on which the low temperature remains at or above 90°. For the 30-year period ending in 1999, Phoenix averaged 100.1 days per year with maximum temperatures of 100° or above and 1.1 days per year on which the minimum temperature was 90° or above. For the 30-year period ending in 2019, those increased to 109.6 days per year and 6.6 days per year respectively.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions will likely develop.

The SOI was +26.40.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.330.

On August 19, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.470 (RMM). The August 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.700.

The MJO's recent passage through Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above has been fairly uncommon during the August 10-25 timeframe. During the 1981-2019 period only 2002 and 2004 saw the MJO move through Phase 8 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during this period. Both cases were followed by a warmer than normal September.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.0°.

 

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