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August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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9 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I will confidently take the under on that. It would have to be above 98 for that to happen and I don't see anything like that in the forecast.

it. hit. 96. last. october.

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NYC has had to wait longer for its first 50s after a late summer cold front. It used to be common for the first 50s to arrive during August. But now more and more years don’t get the first 50s until September. NYC reached the monthly low so far of 62° today.

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 06-09 (2017) 08-15 (2013) 56
Mean 06-16 09-06 81
Maximum 06-27 (2015) 09-17 (2016) 94
2019 06-14 (2019) 58 09-06 (2019) 58 83
2018 06-12 (2018) 57 09-09 (2018) 55 88
2017 06-09 (2017) 53 09-01 (2017) 55 83
2016 06-14 (2016) 58 09-17 (2016) 59 94
2015 06-27 (2015) 58 09-14 (2015) 59 78
2014 06-15 (2014) 59 09-13 (2014) 58 89
2013 06-19 (2013) 59 08-15 (2013) 59 56
2012 06-26 (2012) 58 09-10 (2012) 58 75
2011 06-15 (2011) 56 08-29 (2011) 59 74
2010 06-11 (2010) 58 09-11 (2010) 59 91

 

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 06-12 (2006) 08-07 (2004) 16
Mean 06-27 08-25 58
Maximum 07-24 (2007) 09-11 (2005) 82
2009 07-08 (2009) 58 09-01 (2009) 57 54
2008 06-19 (2008) 57 08-11 (2008) 59 52
2007 07-24 (2007) 58 08-10 (2007) 57 16
2006 06-12 (2006) 56 09-02 (2006) 59 81
2005 06-20 (2005) 59 09-11 (2005) 58 82
2004 06-20 (2004) 57 08-07 (2004) 59 47
2003 06-23 (2003) 57 09-02 (2003) 59 70
2002 06-18 (2002) 58 09-01 (2002) 59 74
2001 07-03 (2001) 58 09-02 (2001) 58 60
2000 07-08 (2000) 58 08-19 (2000) 59 41

 

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 06-10 (1983) 08-08 (1989) 38
Mean 06-26 08-24 58
Maximum 07-09 (1984) 09-11 (1980) 81
1989 06-30 (1989) 58 08-08 (1989) 56 38
1988 07-02 (1988) 58 08-22 (1988) 56 50
1987 06-24 (1987) 58 08-24 (1987) 57 60
1986 07-04 (1986) 55 08-25 (1986) 58 51
1985 06-28 (1985) 56 09-01 (1985) 58 64
1984 07-09 (1984) 59 09-05 (1984) 56 57
1983 06-10 (1983) 52 08-14 (1983) 59 64
1982 06-14 (1982) 54 08-21 (1982) 59 67
1981 06-27 (1981) 58 08-17 (1981) 59 50
1980 06-21 (1980) 59 09-11 (1980) 57 81

 

 

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43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC has had to wait longer for its first 50s after a late summer cold front. It used to be common for the first 50s to arrive during August. But now more and more years don’t get the first 50s until September. NYC reached the monthly low so far of 62° today.

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 06-09 (2017) 08-15 (2013) 56
Mean 06-16 09-06 81
Maximum 06-27 (2015) 09-17 (2016) 94
2019 06-14 (2019) 58 09-06 (2019) 58 83
2018 06-12 (2018) 57 09-09 (2018) 55 88
2017 06-09 (2017) 53 09-01 (2017) 55 83
2016 06-14 (2016) 58 09-17 (2016) 59 94
2015 06-27 (2015) 58 09-14 (2015) 59 78
2014 06-15 (2014) 59 09-13 (2014) 58 89
2013 06-19 (2013) 59 08-15 (2013) 59 56
2012 06-26 (2012) 58 09-10 (2012) 58 75
2011 06-15 (2011) 56 08-29 (2011) 59 74
2010 06-11 (2010) 58 09-11 (2010) 59 91

 

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 06-12 (2006) 08-07 (2004) 16
Mean 06-27 08-25 58
Maximum 07-24 (2007) 09-11 (2005) 82
2009 07-08 (2009) 58 09-01 (2009) 57 54
2008 06-19 (2008) 57 08-11 (2008) 59 52
2007 07-24 (2007) 58 08-10 (2007) 57 16
2006 06-12 (2006) 56 09-02 (2006) 59 81
2005 06-20 (2005) 59 09-11 (2005) 58 82
2004 06-20 (2004) 57 08-07 (2004) 59 47
2003 06-23 (2003) 57 09-02 (2003) 59 70
2002 06-18 (2002) 58 09-01 (2002) 59 74
2001 07-03 (2001) 58 09-02 (2001) 58 60
2000 07-08 (2000) 58 08-19 (2000) 59 41

 

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
Minimum 06-10 (1983) 08-08 (1989) 38
Mean 06-26 08-24 58
Maximum 07-09 (1984) 09-11 (1980) 81
1989 06-30 (1989) 58 08-08 (1989) 56 38
1988 07-02 (1988) 58 08-22 (1988) 56 50
1987 06-24 (1987) 58 08-24 (1987) 57 60
1986 07-04 (1986) 55 08-25 (1986) 58 51
1985 06-28 (1985) 56 09-01 (1985) 58 64
1984 07-09 (1984) 59 09-05 (1984) 56 57
1983 06-10 (1983) 52 08-14 (1983) 59 64
1982 06-14 (1982) 54 08-21 (1982) 59 67
1981 06-27 (1981) 58 08-17 (1981) 59 50
1980 06-21 (1980) 59 09-11 (1980) 57 81

I think NYC would have had to wait longer for there first 50s even without climate change. Heat island affect just gets continually more dramatic. I bet last night the city would have gone to the 50s if it were, lets say, 100 years ago.

 

 

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55 minutes ago, lee59 said:

 

The heat Island around Central Park has been fairly constant for a long time now. This recent rise is a result of warmer overall temperatures. You can see similar similar cool temperature benchmarks getting pushed back in the surrounding areas also. 

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5A3AB3C9-5727-4EA6-BA96-30F5357BF382.thumb.jpeg.6fe2f7e90d0b5a8fd9a15f372bd8e189.jpeg

 

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The heat Island around Central Park has been fairly constant for a long time now. This recent rise is a result of warmer overall temperatures. You can see similar similar cool temperature benchmarks getting pushed back in the surrounding areas also. 

7FF3A275-B654-4FE9-B534-9B7E8EAFA449.thumb.jpeg.9447da408f091696bfef8a66a65eb98d.jpeg

5A3AB3C9-5727-4EA6-BA96-30F5357BF382.thumb.jpeg.6fe2f7e90d0b5a8fd9a15f372bd8e189.jpeg

 

There is no doubt the temps have warmed thru out the area, city and country. I am simply saying on night time lows on no wind nights, the city is much warmer and last night was one of those nights. The heat island does nothing but get worse with all the large buildings going up the past 10  years, it is getting hard to tell where Manhattan ends and Brooklyn and Queens begin. So much building in western areas of Queens and Brooklyn.

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1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Latest GFS seems to show temps in the 80s until a quick brief cool down around Wednesday. Best chance for 90 looks like Friday or possibly Thursday.

Looks like the euro is similar to the GFS, with the best chance of 90 + temperatures on Friday, and possibly Thursday. then after that the Euro seems to have quite a cool down

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Lots of model differences tropics to se Canada the next week.  Since I had a sneak broad peek at 850 temps this coming week... am not straying from the 810A post. Need to figure out if the 12z/20 EC is loner on big heat this week... has 21C 850MB T at NYC 12z Thu.  I see the UK/GGEM/GFS want to try to cool it down mid week as does the 12z/20 GEFS.  EC op says no go but have not looked at EPS nor high res EC.  For me, staying on course with the EC for now but can see it/and I may need to adjust with a faster CFP Wed or Thu?  Just don't know. .

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On beach in  CI.      My T read remotely is just 76* at 3pm.      Best conditions during next 7 days, I bet.

Note that all rides have been closed the entire season.    Boardwalk concessions have been mostly opened.      The NY Aquarium will try a second opening by reservation only on Aug. 27th.

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3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

it. hit. 96. last. october.

why do people keep forgetting what's been happening the past decade? it hit 80 in february. lol

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27 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

why do people keep forgetting what's been happening the past decade? it hit 80 in february. lol

The dichotomy of that still baffles me. Pleasant 80 degree weather mixed with impending climate doom. 

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42 minutes ago, Nibor said:

The dichotomy of that still baffles me. Pleasant 80 degree weather mixed with impending climate doom. 

We have several respected posters here who still don't believe that's a thing.

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i like this climate pattern we are in milder winters but still good enough for snow... it's better than it was in the 80;s where you had many days in nyc during the winter when temps would end up in the single digits at nite..

 

 

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At least the rate that the trees were dropping leaves has slowed a bit in the last few days. But now I have some trees that are totally bare on the south side with leaves only on the north side. The landscapers have been doing some early fall leaf clean ups.

 

 

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1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

i like this climate pattern we are in milder winters but still good enough for snow... it's better than it was in the 80;s where you had many days in nyc during the winter when temps would end up in the single digits at nite..

 

 

I forgot about the 80 in Feb when there was a foot of snow the first day of Spring...at my age I like it milder and snowier...

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5 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I forgot about the 80 in Feb when there was a foot of snow the first day of Spring...at my age I like it milder and snowier...

I don't think you are alone with liking it milder. I believe the earth is warming, I just don't believe the gloom and doom scenario.

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15 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I forgot about the 80 in Feb when there was a foot of snow the first day of Spring...at my age I like it milder and snowier...

You wonder if we can ever top the 09-10 to 17-18 period for snowfall. We broke just about every previous snowfall record with the exception of 95-96. I guess we will find out if it was just a transition period.

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You wonder if we can ever top the 09-10 to 17-18 period for snowfall. We broke just about every previous snowfall record with the exception of 95-96. I guess we will find out if it was just a transition period.

I'm worried more about repeating the 80s or the 96-2000 period

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm worried more about repeating the 80s or the 96-2000 period

After the last delightful almost eight months, I’m just worried about what’s next. As always  ......

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You wonder if we can ever top the 09-10 to 17-18 period for snowfall. We broke just about every previous snowfall record with the exception of 95-96. I guess we will find out if it was just a transition period.

I realize there's a lot that goes into these blizzards we've been hit with but if nothing else, warmer SSTs will allow for stronger moisture fetch to feed the beasts.  We are getting Georgia moisture but with more exposure to cA airmasses.  I have a jar on my desk that I put 50 cents into every time I read the phrase "record PWATs" on the board or in an AFD, and this year I saved up enough for a new Bentley Arnage.

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11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm worried more about repeating the 80s or the 96-2000 period

We will find out next winter. Making a third consecutive below normal snowfall season would be a first since the 1980s and 1990s. Ever since 2002-2003, our only back to back down snowfall years were 06-07 to 07-08  along with 18-19 to 19-20. 

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You wonder if we can ever top the 09-10 to 17-18 period for snowfall. We broke just about every previous snowfall record with the exception of 95-96. I guess we will find out if it was just a transition period.

Let’s hope and pray for a warm, snowless winter.  
I understand the desire for a big snowstorm, but our country and our economy does not need any more business interruptions.  We need a smooth winter where we can get back to normal.  We do not need any more prolonged interruptions 

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25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You wonder if we can ever top the 09-10 to 17-18 period for snowfall. We broke just about every previous snowfall record with the exception of 95-96. I guess we will find out if it was just a transition period.

incredible run.   only thing missing for me was a March 1888 redux

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

incredible run.   only thing missing for me was a March 1888 redux

And this is true as well.  The winters since '08 have been unreal.  But lets not get too greedy and lets look at the larger picture.  We need a winter that will not interrupt business this winter.  Snowstorms only on weekends.   Warm and snowless during workweek.

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6 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

And this is true as well.  The winters since '08 have been unreal.  But lets not get too greedy and lets look at the larger picture.  We need a winter that will not interrupt business this winter.  Snowstorms only on weekends.   Warm and snowless during workweek.

JB is going warm and snowless for us this year....maybe he'll be right....

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

JB is going warm and snowless for us this year....maybe he'll be right....

Wouldn't that be a switch from the man who always calls for a snowy and cold winter?  Its almost like the oil companies pay him to shill

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38 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm worried more about repeating the 80s or the 96-2000 period

We seem to be entering a period where the SE Ridge is becoming too strong, causing the storms to ride inland, and a general Nina-ish overall pattern where the upper Midwest, NNE and West have the best winters. We’ve had this two years in a row now so hopefully year 3 can be a change from this. We could certainly use the NAO cooperating during the winter for a change which forces a further south track. 

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1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

I realize there's a lot that goes into these blizzards we've been hit with but if nothing else, warmer SSTs will allow for stronger moisture fetch to feed the beasts.  We are getting Georgia moisture but with more exposure to cA airmasses.  I have a jar on my desk that I put 50 cents into every time I read the phrase "record PWATs" on the board or in an AFD, and this year I saved up enough for a new Bentley Arnage.

Our snowfall variation has become much more extreme since the 1990s. It’s either a much above normal season or much below. Those mid 20s snowfall seasons that used to be common have become few and far between.

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