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August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Our snowfall variation has become much more extreme since the 1990s. It’s either a much above normal season or much below. Those mid 20s snowfall seasons that used to be common have become few and far between.

It’s been big time boom or bust. Patterns like to lock set and load. It just depends on which side your on. I fully expect some mega blizzards in the future until we become too warm for much snow. That would be 50 plus years from now 

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 the 1980's were colder than the 2010's-20's...the Oceans were colder too...from 1970-71 to 1989-90 NYC averaged 20.6" of snow...the 1990's with the help of 1993-94 and 1995-96 averaged around 25" a season...the last twenty years are averaging 32" a season...not to mention how many 20" snowfalls we had since 1996...

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since 1990-91...

...winters with...

less than 10"...4

10-19.9............7

20-29.9............5

30-39.9.............3

40-49.9.............5

50+....................6

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The coolest temperatures since mid-June covered many parts of the area. Low temperatures included:

Albany: 48° (coolest since June 14: 43°)
Allentown: 54° (coolest since June 17: 53°)
Boston: 61° (coolest since July 17: 59°)
Bridgeport: 61° (coolest since June 17: 58°)
Islip: 60° (coolest since June 17: 56°)
New York City: 62° (coolest since June 17: 60°)
Newark: 61° (coolest since June 17: 60°)
Philadelphia: 64° (coolest since August 17: 63°)
Poughkeepsie: 50° (coolest since June 16: 49°)

Noticeably warmer weather will likely arrive this weekend. Readings could approach or reach 90° in much of the region early next week.

Temperatures remained warmer than normal in many parts of the Southwest, even as temperatures backed off their recent extreme levels. Select high temperatures included:

Death Valley, CA: 122°
Flagstaff: 89°
Kingman, AZ: 107° (tied record set in 1915)
Lake Havasu City, AZ: 115°
Las Vegas: 112° (old record: 110°, 1950)
Mesa, AZ: 109°
Needles, CA: 118°
Palm Springs, CA: 109°
Phoenix: 112°
Stockton, CA: 97°
Tucson: 107°
Yuma, AZ: 107°

Phoenix has an implied 99% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature of 96.5° - 96.9°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. Since recordkeeping began in August 1895, two years saw both July and August rank among Phoenix's 20 warmest months on record: 2007 and 2019. It is all but certain that 2020 will become the third such case.

Consistent with the forecasts related to climate change, Phoenix has been witnessing an increased number of annual days on which the temperature reaches 100° or above and on which the low temperature remains at or above 90°. For the 30-year period ending in 1999, Phoenix averaged 100.1 days per year with maximum temperatures of 100° or above and 1.1 days per year on which the minimum temperature was 90° or above. For the 30-year period ending in 2019, those increased to 109.6 days per year and 6.6 days per year respectively.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions will likely develop.

The SOI was +26.40.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.330.

On August 19, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.470 (RMM). The August 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.700.

The MJO's recent passage through Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above has been fairly uncommon during the August 10-25 timeframe. During the 1981-2019 period only 2002 and 2004 saw the MJO move through Phase 8 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during this period. Both cases were followed by a warmer than normal September.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.0°.

 

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8/20


LGA: 83
EWR: 83
New Brnswck: 82
BLM: 82
PHL: 82
ACY: 81
TEB: 81
TTN: 80
JFK: 79
NYC: 79
ISP: 78

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5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

what? is that true? so i will go buy a snowblower

I’d attribute any snow drought in this immediate area to the fact I finally moved north vs anything JB says. 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

You wonder if we can ever top the 09-10 to 17-18 period for snowfall. We broke just about every previous snowfall record with the exception of 95-96. I guess we will find out if it was just a transition period.

It’s a shame we couldn’t break 95-96 seasonal snow totals during that period at the park. We had a good run but the park had some bad luck during it.

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I expected the mjo to park in p4/5/6 and the Pv to be uber strong. The -nao will come in April 2021 when we don’t want it. 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Our snowfall variation has become much more extreme since the 1990s. It’s either a much above normal season or much below. Those mid 20s snowfall seasons that used to be common have become few and far between.

Bottomline from me, if this place keeps being wet, even fleetier cold air will find its way in and every sometime the shit will pop off.  The jet stream will keep weakening but cold will find wet and the snow machine will pump.  And maybe these storms start to sit longer and just dump.  It might be rarer, but the potential for higher NESIS storms could come.

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8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We seem to be entering a period where the SE Ridge is becoming too strong, causing the storms to ride inland, and a general Nina-ish overall pattern where the upper Midwest, NNE and West have the best winters. We’ve had this two years in a row now so hopefully year 3 can be a change from this. We could certainly use the NAO cooperating during the winter for a change which forces a further south track. 

weird thing about the 80s is that we didn't have anywhere near as many TCs.  In the past decade or so we seem to be a magnet for them.  This decade is more like the 50s than the 80s- backloaded winters, lots of east coast TCs and big summer heat.

 

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6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The coolest temperatures since mid-June covered many parts of the area. Low temperatures included:

Albany: 48° (coolest since June 14: 43°)
Allentown: 54° (coolest since June 17: 53°)
Boston: 61° (coolest since July 17: 59°)
Bridgeport: 61° (coolest since June 17: 58°)
Islip: 60° (coolest since June 17: 56°)
New York City: 62° (coolest since June 17: 60°)
Newark: 61° (coolest since June 17: 60°)
Philadelphia: 64° (coolest since August 17: 63°)
Poughkeepsie: 50° (coolest since June 16: 49°)

Noticeably warmer weather will likely arrive this weekend. Readings could approach or reach 90° in much of the region early next week.

Temperatures remained warmer than normal in many parts of the Southwest, even as temperatures backed off their recent extreme levels. Select high temperatures included:

Death Valley, CA: 122°
Flagstaff: 89°
Kingman, AZ: 107° (tied record set in 1915)
Lake Havasu City, AZ: 115°
Las Vegas: 112° (old record: 110°, 1950)
Mesa, AZ: 109°
Needles, CA: 118°
Palm Springs, CA: 109°
Phoenix: 112°
Stockton, CA: 97°
Tucson: 107°
Yuma, AZ: 107°

Phoenix has an implied 99% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature of 96.5° - 96.9°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. Since recordkeeping began in August 1895, two years saw both July and August rank among Phoenix's 20 warmest months on record: 2007 and 2019. It is all but certain that 2020 will become the third such case.

Consistent with the forecasts related to climate change, Phoenix has been witnessing an increased number of annual days on which the temperature reaches 100° or above and on which the low temperature remains at or above 90°. For the 30-year period ending in 1999, Phoenix averaged 100.1 days per year with maximum temperatures of 100° or above and 1.1 days per year on which the minimum temperature was 90° or above. For the 30-year period ending in 2019, those increased to 109.6 days per year and 6.6 days per year respectively.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions will likely develop.

The SOI was +26.40.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.330.

On August 19, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.470 (RMM). The August 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.700.

The MJO's recent passage through Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above has been fairly uncommon during the August 10-25 timeframe. During the 1981-2019 period only 2002 and 2004 saw the MJO move through Phase 8 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during this period. Both cases were followed by a warmer than normal September.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.0°.

 

Hey Don did MPO get into the 40s last night?  Thanks!

In regards to the SW haven't they also been in a long term drought?

 

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7 hours ago, uncle W said:

 the 1980's were colder than the 2010's-20's...the Oceans were colder too...from 1970-71 to 1989-90 NYC averaged 20.6" of snow...the 1990's with the help of 1993-94 and 1995-96 averaged around 25" a season...the last twenty years are averaging 32" a season...not to mention how many 20" snowfalls we had since 1996...

oceans being colder may be the main reason we didn't have many TCs during the 80s

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

We will find out next winter. Making a third consecutive below normal snowfall season would be a first since the 1980s and 1990s. Ever since 2002-2003, our only back to back down snowfall years were 06-07 to 07-08  along with 18-19 to 19-20. 

nothing could be as extreme as the 15-16 winter....going from a warm December to a 30 inch snowstorm in January to below zero on Valentines Day, wow......

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 83degs., or 8.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +1.1[76.9].          Should be about +3.2[78.6] by the 29th.

69*(85%RH) here at 6am, thin overcast+breaks.         82*(60%RH) by 3pm.

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13 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We seem to be entering a period where the SE Ridge is becoming too strong, causing the storms to ride inland, and a general Nina-ish overall pattern where the upper Midwest, NNE and West have the best winters. We’ve had this two years in a row now so hopefully year 3 can be a change from this. We could certainly use the NAO cooperating during the winter for a change which forces a further south track. 

That SE Ridge has been at near record levels since the La Niña background state began in 16-17. Even with the record warmth in 16-17 and 17-18, the ridge north of Hawaii was able to focus near Alaska. So we got both a warm and snowy pattern. But in 18-19 and 19-20 that NPAC Ridge was further south creating a snowless pattern for us. So we’ll have to see what that ridge does this winter since it looks like a 5th year in a row with a Niña background state. The ridge centered near Alaska also allows heights to build over the top and drop the NAO at times. Last winter ridge too far south near Hawaii was associated with the strong PV +EPO/+NAO.

383243F7-99FB-4718-B221-822615FE9D7A.png.4f625603ed6353d248ddb5c857c55908.png
0A0CA8BD-0140-4BFE-A63D-789EF4610853.png.6620d32b00979e7570d4f52e5d49a07e.png

 

 

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Good Friday morning all,  No new topics.  

Heat: EC op is quite warm versus GFS/GGEM/UK Wed and even Thu. 850MB is basically showing ~16C-17C at 12z daily beginning Saturday forward continuing through Wed and 20-21C Thu-Fri.  That suggests to me a heat wave begins Saturday or Sunday for our non marine influenced and less than 500'MSL portions of sw CT, se NYS, NJ, lasting into Tuesday. Wednesday shows great modeling uncertainty with the 00z/21 GFS MEX MOS possibly 11 degrees too cool?? Lots of bust potential on temps Wednesday.  Then, a good chance 90+ Thu and possibly Fri with the HI near 100 on one of those days.  

Tropic related: 00z/21 EC op is also showing tropical moisture and the TD13 850 vort feeding us Friday the 28th as modeled PWAT increases to ~2."  TD13 850MB vort could end up a lot further south but for now, that vort center seems to assist the EC QPF development in the northeast Friday. 

Short term: Might be a couple of light showers early Saturday se NYS/NJ as gentle WAA develops, and a slightly better chance of a late afternoon shower or thunderstorm there.

Sunday: modeling has diminished interest. However, the afternoon still has the makings for a few pockets of 2-3" thunderstorm clusters, probably not FF/probably not SVR ,but interruptive for some of us, with PWAT near 1.7", decent CAPE, KI and SBLI.  Most favored parts of our area are NJ/SE NYS and CT.

Tuesdays (25th) trough or cfp could be interesting for many of us. ?

Next Wed-Thu-Fri: Lots to monitor until models draw consensus. KI eventually may rise to 40 for a time on one of these days, along a possible eventual tropical moisture infusion??  740A/21

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72/63.  The warmup begins today with highs pushing into the mid and perhaps upper 80s.  Clouds plentiful south and west of the area but so far its remaining partly to mostly sunny.   The weekend looks warm with 90s likely in the warmer spots especially Saturday.  Sunday warm but storms and clouds may limit any upper 80s / near 90s. 

  Rockies ridge slowly pushes the strong heat into the plains, Miswest and out way next week, as the western Atlantic ridge backs west into the southeast pumping heights into the region and hooking the heat.  Mon - Wed upper 80s and low 90s with storm chances each day.  Thu (8/27) - Fri (8/28) that 2 day strong heat that could push record temps and challenge season highs.  Tropics look aimed at the Gulf and any subsequent moisture may miss or not arrive till next weekend (8/29). 

Sharp cooldown looks to follow the strong heat for a 2 day stint Sat (8/30 / Sun 8/31) before more warmth builds back into the area.

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15 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm worried more about repeating the 80s or the 96-2000 period

the 80s actually averaged more snow than the 90s for the cnj area.

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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Good Friday morning all,  No new topics.  

Heat: EC op is quite warm versus GFS/GGEM/UK Wed and even Thu. 850MB is basically showing ~16C-17C at 12z daily beginning Saturday forward continuing through Wed and 20-21C Thu-Fri.  That suggests to me a heat wave begins Saturday or Sunday for our non marine influenced and less than 500'MSL portions of sw CT, se NYS, NJ, lasting into Tuesday. Wednesday shows great modeling uncertainty with the 00z/21 GFS MEX MOS possibly 11 degrees too cool?? Lots of bust potential on temps Wednesday.  Then, a good chance 90+ Thu and possibly Fri with the HI near 100 on one of those days.  

Tropic related: 00z/21 EC op is also showing tropical moisture and the TD13 850 vort feeding us Friday the 28th as modeled PWAT increases to ~2."  TD13 850MB vort could end up a lot further south but for now, that vort center seems to assist the EC QPF development in the northeast Friday. 

Short term: Might be a couple of light showers early Saturday se NYS/NJ as gentle WAA develops, and a slightly better chance of a late afternoon shower or thunderstorm there.

Sunday: modeling has diminished interest. However, the afternoon still has the makings for a few pockets of 2-3" thunderstorm clusters, probably not FF/probably not SVR ,but interruptive for some of us, with PWAT near 1.7", decent CAPE, KI and SBLI.  Most favored parts of our area are NJ/SE NYS and CT.

Tuesdays (25th) trough or cfp could be interesting for many of us. ?

Next Wed-Thu-Fri: Lots to monitor until models draw consensus. KI eventually may rise to 40 for a time on one of these days, along a possible eventual tropical moisture infusion??  740A/21

I always wonder what the borders are when SE NY is mentioned in a forecast. Is it mostly LI and the city or does that reach into Westchester and Putnam counties? 

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8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

oceans being colder may be the main reason we didn't have many TCs during the 80s

We now have Laura in the Atlantic, so far another weak system that is questionable on how strong it will ever get. Very much the theme of this hurricane season. I wonder if it is a record to make it to the "L" storm and not have any storm make it to a major category.

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3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

We now have Laura in the Atlantic, so far another weak system that is questionable on how strong it will ever get. Very much the theme of this hurricane season. I wonder if it is a record to make it to the "L" storm and not have any storm make it to a major category.

2005 had 5 hurricanes, 3 of them major by this point

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8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Hey Don did MPO get into the 40s last night?  Thanks!

In regards to the SW haven't they also been in a long term drought?

 

Yes. It was 46 at MPO. It has been dry in the Southwest. However, Phoenix was hit by heavy thunderstorms last night with 0.90” rain.

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I understand what your saying that the SW is in a drought because their precip is below normal but lets not forget most of that area is a desert or close to it. They will always be in a drought. :)

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32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

2005 had 5 hurricanes, 3 of them major by this point

Yea 2005 was a bad year, especially for Florida. After that season we set a  record by going 11 seasons in a row without a major hurricane hitting the United States.

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