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August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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The sea breeze has been loving my location this summer, it just moves in and parks itself right over me, so much early afternoon cloud cover this July/Aug + high dews.

89/80 here, because of said sea breeze causing the dew point to spike.

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2PM

LGA: 89
EWR: 89
New Brnswck: 88
BLM: 88
TTN: 86
JFK: 86
PHL: 86
NYC: 86
TEB: 85 (storm)
ACY: 84
ISP: 83

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BDL reached 93° today. So they are just 1 short of their all time 90° day record of 38 days in 1983.

Time Series Summary for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 1983 38 0
2 2020 37 132
3 2002 35 0
4 2010 34 0
- 1965 34 0
5 2018 32 0
- 1966 32 0
6 2016 31 0
- 1991 31 0
- 1949 31 3
7 1988 30 0
- 1973 30 0
8 2005 29 0
9 1999 28 0
10 2019 27 0
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4 hours ago, binbisso said:

I think you need to use a different formula for calculating how warm is going to be over the next eight days. In reality this period Was -2 for Central Park. It's not  like you're remotely close. The park is at + 1.1 for the month

DO NOT BLAME ME.       THE GFS IN THIS PART OF THE WORLD RUNS 5 DEGREES TOO WARM, AT LEAST IN THE SUMMER.         I MENTIONED THIS MANY TIMES.       I WILL   CALCULATE BY SUBTRACTING 5 FROM THE AVERAGE AND USE THAT TO GET A RANGE.      I JUST USE A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OTHERWISE.

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26 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

DO NOT BLAME ME.       THE GFS IN THIS PART OF THE WORLD RUNS 5 DEGREES TOO WARM, AT LEAST IN THE SUMMER.         I MENTIONED THIS MANY TIMES.       I WILL   CALCULATE BY SUBTRACTING 5 FROM THE AVERAGE AND USE THAT TO GET A RANGE.      I JUST USE A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OTHERWISE.

That's interesting I thought the GFS runs about 5 degrees too cold. I think the more accurate way to portray temperatures for the next 8 days would be taking an average from the three major Global models  Euro GFS in UK which is what I assumed you did. To use the GFS to gauge temperatures for the next 8 days does not make sense.

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Windy, mostly cloudy, mild day at robert moses. At home now its another world. Hardly any breeze..sunny and hot high was 91, 30 days for the year. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

BDL reached 93° today. So they are just 1 short of their all time 90° day record of 38 days in 1983.

Time Series Summary for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 1983 38 0
2 2020 37 132
3 2002 35 0
4 2010 34 0
- 1965 34 0
5 2018 32 0
- 1966 32 0
6 2016 31 0
- 1991 31 0
- 1949 31 3
7 1988 30 0
- 1973 30 0
8 2005 29 0
9 1999 28 0
10 2019 27 0

likely gets beaten in the next 3 days with highs in the low 90's to near 90 next 3 days

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Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures rose to the middle and upper 80s today. A few parts of the region reached 90° or slightly above.

90° Days for Select Cities (through August 22):

Albany: 13 (2019: 12 days)
Allentown: 23 (2019: 24 days)
Baltimore: 40 (2019: 59 days)
Boston: 14 (2019: 15 days)
Burlington: 20 (2019: 8 days)
Harrisburg: 30 (2019: 33 days)
Hartford: 37 (2019: 27 days)
Islip: 6 (2019: 8 days)
New York City-JFK: 10 (2019: 7 days)
New York City-LGA: 31 (2019: 26 days)
New York City-NYC: 18 (2019: 15 days)
Newark: 28 (2019: 28 days)
Philadelphia: 32 (2019: 35 days)
Scranton: 24 (2019: 12 days)
Washington, DC: 41 (2019: 62 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 22 (2019: 19 days)
...Expected: 22 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Tomorrow will be another warm day. At the height of the warmth early next week, readings could approach or reach 90° in much of the region. However, the month could end on a cool note before temperatures return to above normal levels during the first week of September. In addition, the remnants of Laura could exit off the Middle Atlantic coast late next week.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.

Parts of the West continued to experience near record to record warmth. Select high temperatures included:

Death Valley, CA: 121°
Denver: 97°
Flagstaff: 90° (old record: 88°, 1938)
Las Vegas: 105°
Needles, CA: 111°
Phoenix: 106°
Pueblo, CO: 103° (old record: 100°, 2003 and 2013) ***hottest so late in the season***

At Death Valley, the temperature topped out at 120°. That was also the 9th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 120° or above. That is the longest August stretch since August 6-17, 2012 when the mercury reached 120° or above on 12 consecutive days.

Phoenix has an implied near 100% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature of 96.6° - 97.0°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. August 2020 could approach or exceed that figure. There is currently an implied 56% probability that August will exceed July's monthly record.

As recently, as 2000, the 30-year average summer minimum temperature in Phoenix was 79.8°. The last time Phoenix had an average summer minimum temperature below 80.0° was 1998 when the average minimum temperature was 79.7°. The first time Phoenix recorded an average summer mean temperature of 80° or above was in 1977 when the average low temperature was 81.5°. Records go back to August 1895.     

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions will likely develop.

The SOI was +9.53.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.397.

On August 21, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.533 (RMM). The August 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.572.

The MJO's recent passage through Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above has been fairly uncommon during the August 10-25 timeframe. During the 1981-2019 period only 2002 and 2004 saw the MJO move through Phase 8 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during this period. Both cases were followed by a warmer than normal September.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°.

Finally, on August 21, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.386 million square kilometers (JAXA). There is an implied 86% probability that Arctic sea ice extent will reach a minimum figure below 4.000 million square kilometers for the second consecutive year and third time on record. The highest 25% bound is 3.870 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 3.460 million square kilometers.

 

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8/22

LGA: 92
EWR: 92
New Brnswck: 91
BLM: 89
TEB: 89
NYC: 88
TTN: 88
PHL: 87
ISP: 86
JFK: 86
ACY: 86

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The next 8 days are averaging 80.5degs., or 7degs. AN.

Month to date is  +1.3[77.0].         Should be about  +2.9[78.0] by the 31st.      More likely the 78.0 is 76.6, correcting for the GFS bias of +5.0, a topic for separate discussion.

A quick 3" rain event and 30mph gusts from the tropical duo debris, next Saturday around here?     GFS only.    12Z GFS already down to just 1" from the tropical remnants.

73*(89%RH) here at 6am., thin-scattered overcast.         Was 82* at Noon but back to 80* by 1pm.

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Another day of 70° minimums across the area. This puts many of our stations in 1st place from June 1st to August 23rd. White Plains set the new record for 65° minimums. POU to our north has the new record for 60° lows.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 23
Missing Count
1 2010-08-23 50 0
- 1973-08-23 50 0
  2020-08-23 50 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 23
Missing Count
1 1908-08-23 52 0
2 2020-08-23 52 0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 23
Missing Count
1 2006-08-23 61 0
2 2020-08-23 60 0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 23
Missing Count
1 2020-08-23 36 4
2 2016-08-23 34 0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 23
Missing Count
1 2010-08-23 31 0
- 1988-08-23 31 0
  2020-08-23 31 0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 65 Jun 1 to Aug 23
Missing Count
1 2020-08-23 51 1
2 2019-08-23 47 1
- 2010-08-23 47 2

 

Time Series Summary for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 60 Jun 1 to Aug 23
Missing Count
1 2020-08-23 63 1
- 1973-08-23 62 0
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Good Sunday morning all,  A bit late for me... the Tropical post took a lot of time for me to hopefully construct with reasonable looks to failure. 

This is an interesting week in our NYC forum. Short heat wave has started in a few spots of non-marine influenced locations and expect it to continue into Tuesday, possibly squelched by showers/thunderstorm debris Monday and Tuesday.  The GFS will probably have won the battle with the EC for Wednesday in terms of high temps precluding any potential extension of a heat wave into Thu or Fri. 

Today: No topic but note SPC has a marginal risk along the northern rim of our forum area (Ulster-Dutchess-Litchfield) so an isolated severe may impact those 3 counties late today or this eve??  I think we have a better chance for one or 2 clusters of 2-3" rains from thunderstorms in Ocean, possibly Monmouth and Mercer counties in central NJ this afternoon-evening. The rain free area today should be in our most populated area between I80-I84 (low KI), so that's the primary reason no topic. 

Monday-Tuesday: Issuing a low confidence topic for more widespread heavy thunderstorms with potential for 2-3" max rainfalls (this was modeled for Sunday several days ago by the EC).  KI is up, actually quite high for Monday morning so we may get a quick start Monday.  PW up to near 1.8". Cannot rule out an isolated SVR Monday afternoon but the two day topic includes Tuesday's SPC slight risk.  They see more detailed model information than I, so despite my concerns about general nw 850MB flow,  I've included Tuesday.  I could see best chance SVR early in the day but this can improved as we draw closer.  Plenty of wind in the sounding and enough CAPE/KI for sure, but don't quite like the 850 flow. 

Wednesday: Probably rain free.

Thursday: PWAT and KI coming up pretty good in WAA with decent wind aloft. May have a nw flow svr event?

Friday-Sunday as per tropic topic discussion. 

 

Wrapping up yesterday: Despite a low prob day... digital storm total near 1.25" was seen in nw NJ.  I saw several weather underground reports between 0.5-0.9" and those are not included in this very early look at attached CoCoRAHS reports. The updated CoCoRAHS map had a 1.07" in ne NJ.  Our future PWATS and forcing will are a little better than yesterday so my concerns for pockets of 2+" amounts in a few spots, many missing the storms. 851A/23 

 

 

Screen_Shot_2020-08-23_at_2_35.13_PM.png

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78/73 here humid and mostly cloudy.  Southerly flow bringing the humidity and some showers.  Clouds and showers moving through should allow for partly sunny conditions this afternoon. We'll see how much we can warm things once we clear out.  Mon - Tue more warmth with 90s again in the warmer spots.  Wed (8/26) more of a Northerly flow and a brief 12 - 18  hour cooldown before stronger heat arrives Thu (8/27) and perhaps Friday or part of Friday (8/28) ahead of remnants of Laura.

Sat (8/30) - Tue (9/1) cooler ahead of more warmth.  Looking in the way beyond looks a bit back and forth the opening week of the month before a more sustained warmth towards the second week.  I think we will have a better handle with guidance once we resolve Marco and Laura's remnants. 

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Made it up to 88 before cluds worked in about 30 minutes ago.  Now down to 83.  Storms near TTN slowly moving NE.

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Beautiful day today 86 and mostly sunny, perfect pool day unfortunately I’m working today but I start my vacation tomorrow Cape Cod here I come!

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