Rtd208 Posted August 23, 2020 Author Share Posted August 23, 2020 High for the day yesterday was 93 here. Current temp 75/DP 68/RH 80% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 80.5degs., or 7degs. AN. Month to date is +1.3[77.0]. Should be about +2.9[78.0] by the 31st. More likely the 78.0 is 76.6, correcting for the GFS bias of +5.0, a topic for separate discussion. A quick 3" rain event and 30mph gusts from the tropical duo debris, next Saturday around here? GFS only. 12Z GFS already down to just 1" from the tropical remnants. 73*(89%RH) here at 6am., thin-scattered overcast. Was 82* at Noon but back to 80* by 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 Another day of 70° minimums across the area. This puts many of our stations in 1st place from June 1st to August 23rd. White Plains set the new record for 65° minimums. POU to our north has the new record for 60° lows. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2010-08-23 50 0 - 1973-08-23 50 0 2020-08-23 50 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 1908-08-23 52 0 2 2020-08-23 52 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2006-08-23 61 0 2 2020-08-23 60 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 36 4 2 2016-08-23 34 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2010-08-23 31 0 - 1988-08-23 31 0 2020-08-23 31 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 65 Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 51 1 2 2019-08-23 47 1 - 2010-08-23 47 2 Time Series Summary for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 60 Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 63 1 - 1973-08-23 62 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 Good Sunday morning all, A bit late for me... the Tropical post took a lot of time for me to hopefully construct with reasonable looks to failure. This is an interesting week in our NYC forum. Short heat wave has started in a few spots of non-marine influenced locations and expect it to continue into Tuesday, possibly squelched by showers/thunderstorm debris Monday and Tuesday. The GFS will probably have won the battle with the EC for Wednesday in terms of high temps precluding any potential extension of a heat wave into Thu or Fri. Today: No topic but note SPC has a marginal risk along the northern rim of our forum area (Ulster-Dutchess-Litchfield) so an isolated severe may impact those 3 counties late today or this eve?? I think we have a better chance for one or 2 clusters of 2-3" rains from thunderstorms in Ocean, possibly Monmouth and Mercer counties in central NJ this afternoon-evening. The rain free area today should be in our most populated area between I80-I84 (low KI), so that's the primary reason no topic. Monday-Tuesday: Issuing a low confidence topic for more widespread heavy thunderstorms with potential for 2-3" max rainfalls (this was modeled for Sunday several days ago by the EC). KI is up, actually quite high for Monday morning so we may get a quick start Monday. PW up to near 1.8". Cannot rule out an isolated SVR Monday afternoon but the two day topic includes Tuesday's SPC slight risk. They see more detailed model information than I, so despite my concerns about general nw 850MB flow, I've included Tuesday. I could see best chance SVR early in the day but this can improved as we draw closer. Plenty of wind in the sounding and enough CAPE/KI for sure, but don't quite like the 850 flow. Wednesday: Probably rain free. Thursday: PWAT and KI coming up pretty good in WAA with decent wind aloft. May have a nw flow svr event? Friday-Sunday as per tropic topic discussion. Wrapping up yesterday: Despite a low prob day... digital storm total near 1.25" was seen in nw NJ. I saw several weather underground reports between 0.5-0.9" and those are not included in this very early look at attached CoCoRAHS reports. The updated CoCoRAHS map had a 1.07" in ne NJ. Our future PWATS and forcing will are a little better than yesterday so my concerns for pockets of 2+" amounts in a few spots, many missing the storms. 851A/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 78/73 here humid and mostly cloudy. Southerly flow bringing the humidity and some showers. Clouds and showers moving through should allow for partly sunny conditions this afternoon. We'll see how much we can warm things once we clear out. Mon - Tue more warmth with 90s again in the warmer spots. Wed (8/26) more of a Northerly flow and a brief 12 - 18 hour cooldown before stronger heat arrives Thu (8/27) and perhaps Friday or part of Friday (8/28) ahead of remnants of Laura. Sat (8/30) - Tue (9/1) cooler ahead of more warmth. Looking in the way beyond looks a bit back and forth the opening week of the month before a more sustained warmth towards the second week. I think we will have a better handle with guidance once we resolve Marco and Laura's remnants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 Larger area or cluster of storms forming in South NJ. See where they go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 Made it up to 88 before cluds worked in about 30 minutes ago. Now down to 83. Storms near TTN slowly moving NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 Updated the CoCoRAHS map with 1.07" isolated in ne NJ yesterday afternoon. Will check back around 6 or 7P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 BDL had yet another 90 degree day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: This may be the first year that it took until the end of August for the AO to reach -2. Such a strong drop will result in a very intense 50/50 vortex which may approach -4 SD. This will increase the shear greatly over the region by Thursday. There is a chance that the northern edge of a very unstable air mass may align with this deep shear. This could lead to MCS development by Thursday. There will also b a very sharp thermal gradient in place with 90s to the south and 70s north. So the exact location of this boundary will be important for our sensible weather. In addition, a trailing piece of energy behind the 50/50 vortex may try to phase with the post tropical Laura. So there should be plenty of potential to track. on the other hand the ao will go as positive as we seen in a while...it looks like an ao roller coaster coming up...with a la nina winter coming up the ao better go negative at least half the time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 newark airport needs a seabreeze wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 1 hour ago, uncle W said: on the other hand the ao will go as positive as we seen in a while...it looks like an ao roller coaster coming up...with a la nina winter coming up the ao better go negative at least half the time... It could be the 5th La Niña-like winter in a row for us. The La Niña background state has been very persistent since 16-17. The SE Ridge was a big player for us last 4 winters. La Niña winter snowfall is usually determined by whether NYC gets 3” of snow in December or not. So we should get an early idea of seasonal snowfall potential. Every La Niña-like snowfall season since 95-96 with under 3” in December turned out below normal like the last 2 winters. All the 3”+ Decembers featured above normal seasonal snowfall. Even the mild La Niña winters like 17-18, 16-17 and 05-06 did well in the snowfall department. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 the winters with the most consistent blocking were 1995-96, 1955-56, 1970-71, 1984-85, 2010-11...1973-74 had a lesser negative ao winter...The winters with no blocking to speak of are...1975-76, 1988-89, 1999-00, 2007-08, 1949-50, 1998-99...the only cold winter with no blocking was 1975-76...but all six with no blocking had less snow than average...the only winter with less snow than normal with blocking was 1970-71...only 1955-56, 1995-96 and 2010-11 had major blizzards and above average snowfall...weaker la nina years like 1966-67 and 2013-14 had less blocking but lots of snow...2010-11 had strong blocking until the end of January...snowfall was a lot less after that... la nina winters...DJF ONI...Dec-Mar AO...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls... 1973-74..............-1.7.............-0.296........35.5.....6..........32.3..........23.5"..........6.0" 4.3" 1988-89..............-1.6............+2.399........35.9.....5..........32.4............8.1"..........5.0" 1999-00..............-1.6............+0.735........36.2.....3..........26.2..........16.3"..........5.5" 1975-76..............-1.5............+0.892........34.4....-1..........27.1..........17.3"..........4.2" 4.0" 2007-08..............-1.4............+0.531........36.4...10..........35.7..........11.9"..........6.0" 1949-50..............-1.4............+0.190........37.5.....6..........31.6..........13.8"..........3.8" 1998-99..............-1.4............+0.113........38.7.....9..........31.3..........12.7"..........4.5" 1970-71..............-1.3.............-0.644........32.1.....4..........24.2..........15.5"..........6.4" 2010-11..............-1.3.............-0.329........32.7.....6..........28.1..........61.9"..........20.0" 19.0" 9.1" 5.0" 2017-18..............-0.9.............-0.291........36.2.....5..........28.0..........40.9"..........4.6" 9.8" 4.4" 8.4" 5.5" 1995-96..............-0.9.............-1.162........32.3.....5..........27.7..........75.6"..........20.2" 10.7" 7.9" 7.5" 4.6" 4.6" 4.1" 1955-56..............-0.9.............-0.512........32.7.....5..........27.6..........33.5"..........11.6" 6.5" 4.2" 1984-85..............-0.9.............-1.062........36.4....-2..........27.5..........24.1"..........5.7" 4.8" 4.3" 4.1" ................................................................................................................................................................. weak la nina... 1950-51..............-0.8.............-1.084.......35.9.....9..........33.0..........11.6"..........3.0" 1967-68..............-0.7.............-0.342.......31.3....-1..........25.1..........19.5"..........6.6" 2000-01..............-0.7.............-1.406.......33.5...14..........29.9..........35.0"........12.0"....6.0"....5.7" 2005-06..............-0.7.............-1.008.......37.3...14..........33.5..........40.0"........26.9"....5.8" 1971-72..............-0.7............+0.164.......35.1.....5..........28.6..........22.9"..........5.7".....5.2" 2008-09..............-0.7............+0.224.......34.2.....6..........27.9..........27.6"..........8.3".....4.5"....4.3" 2011-12..............-0.7............+0.750.......40.5...13..........37.0............7.4"..........4.2" 1954-55..............-0.6.............-0.930.......34.0.....0..........28.6..........11.5"..........3.9" 1964-65..............-0.5.............-1.070.......33.3.....9..........28.0..........24.4"..........6.3".....4.6" 1983-84..............-0.5.............-0.400.......35.2.....4..........26.1..........25.4"..........6.9".....5.1"....4.6" 1974-75..............-0.5............+0.624.......37.5...15..........33.0..........13.1"..........7.8" 1996-97..............-0.5............+0.201.......37.8.....4..........31.7..........10.0"..........3.5" 2013-14..............-0.5............+0.439.......33.0.....4..........28.5..........57.4"........12.5"...11.5"...8.0"...6.4"...5.0"...4.0" weak negatives... 1962-63..............-0.4.............-1.255.......30.0....-2..........25.9..........16.3"..........4.2" 1966-67..............-0.4............+0.293.......34.1.....4..........28.6..........51.5"........12.5".....9.8"...7.1" 1985-86..............-0.4.............-0.872.......33.4.....8..........31.0..........13.0"..........4.5"....4.5" 2012-13..............-0.4.............-1.838.......36.9...11..........31.5..........26.1"........11.4"....4.7" 2016-17..............-0.4............+1.108.......39.3...14..........35.5..........30.2"..........9.4"....7.6"....5.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 1 hour ago, uncle W said: the winters with the most consistent blocking were 1995-96, 1955-56, 1970-71, 1984-85, 2010-11...1973-74 had a lesser negative ao winter...The winters with no blocking to speak of are...1975-76, 1988-89, 1999-00, 2007-08, 1949-50, 1998-99...the only cold winter with no blocking was 1975-76...but all six with no blocking had less snow than average...the only winter with less snow than normal with blocking was 1970-71...only 1955-56, 1995-96 and 2010-11 had major blizzards and above average snowfall...weaker la nina years like 1966-67 and 2013-14 had less blocking but lots of snow...2010-11 had strong blocking until the end of January...snowfall was a lot less after that... la nina winters...DJF ONI...Dec-Mar AO...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls... 1973-74..............-1.7.............-0.296........35.5.....6..........32.3..........23.5"..........6.0" 4.3" 1988-89..............-1.6............+2.399........35.9.....5..........32.4............8.1"..........5.0" 1999-00..............-1.6............+0.735........36.2.....3..........26.2..........16.3"..........5.5" 1975-76..............-1.5............+0.892........34.4....-1..........27.1..........17.3"..........4.2" 4.0" 2007-08..............-1.4............+0.531........36.4...10..........35.7..........11.9"..........6.0" 1949-50..............-1.4............+0.190........37.5.....6..........31.6..........13.8"..........3.8" 1998-99..............-1.4............+0.113........38.7.....9..........31.3..........12.7"..........4.5" 1970-71..............-1.3.............-0.644........32.1.....4..........24.2..........15.5"..........6.4" 2010-11..............-1.3.............-0.329........32.7.....6..........28.1..........61.9"..........20.0" 19.0" 9.1" 5.0" 2017-18..............-0.9.............-0.291........36.2.....5..........28.0..........40.9"..........4.6" 9.8" 4.4" 8.4" 5.5" 1995-96..............-0.9.............-1.162........32.3.....5..........27.7..........75.6"..........20.2" 10.7" 7.9" 7.5" 4.6" 4.6" 4.1" 1955-56..............-0.9.............-0.512........32.7.....5..........27.6..........33.5"..........11.6" 6.5" 4.2" 1984-85..............-0.9.............-1.062........36.4....-2..........27.5..........24.1"..........5.7" 4.8" 4.3" 4.1" ................................................................................................................................................................. weak la nina... 1950-51..............-0.8.............-1.084.......35.9.....9..........33.0..........11.6"..........3.0" 1967-68..............-0.7.............-0.342.......31.3....-1..........25.1..........19.5"..........6.6" 2000-01..............-0.7.............-1.406.......33.5...14..........29.9..........35.0"........12.0"....6.0"....5.7" 2005-06..............-0.7.............-1.008.......37.3...14..........33.5..........40.0"........26.9"....5.8" 1971-72..............-0.7............+0.164.......35.1.....5..........28.6..........22.9"..........5.7".....5.2" 2008-09..............-0.7............+0.224.......34.2.....6..........27.9..........27.6"..........8.3".....4.5"....4.3" 2011-12..............-0.7............+0.750.......40.5...13..........37.0............7.4"..........4.2" 1954-55..............-0.6.............-0.930.......34.0.....0..........28.6..........11.5"..........3.9" 1964-65..............-0.5.............-1.070.......33.3.....9..........28.0..........24.4"..........6.3".....4.6" 1983-84..............-0.5.............-0.400.......35.2.....4..........26.1..........25.4"..........6.9".....5.1"....4.6" 1974-75..............-0.5............+0.624.......37.5...15..........33.0..........13.1"..........7.8" 1996-97..............-0.5............+0.201.......37.8.....4..........31.7..........10.0"..........3.5" 2013-14..............-0.5............+0.439.......33.0.....4..........28.5..........57.4"........12.5"...11.5"...8.0"...6.4"...5.0"...4.0" weak negatives... 1962-63..............-0.4.............-1.255.......30.0....-2..........25.9..........16.3"..........4.2" 1966-67..............-0.4............+0.293.......34.1.....4..........28.6..........51.5"........12.5".....9.8"...7.1" 1985-86..............-0.4.............-0.872.......33.4.....8..........31.0..........13.0"..........4.5"....4.5" 2012-13..............-0.4.............-1.838.......36.9...11..........31.5..........26.1"........11.4"....4.7" 2016-17..............-0.4............+1.108.......39.3...14..........35.5..........30.2"..........9.4"....7.6"....5.1" So NAO is a big factor.But it is in most winters,Nina or Nino.Nina always seems to be front loaded,probably 75 percent of the time we get a cold December.The warm and snowless strong nina winters bit the dust in a big way in 10-11..From Dec 26th through early February was the most snow cover I ever saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 1 hour ago, KEITH L.I said: So NAO is a big factor.But it is in most winters,Nina or Nino.Nina always seems to be front loaded,probably 75 percent of the time we get a cold December.The warm and snowless strong nina winters bit the dust in a big way in 10-11..From Dec 26th through early February was the most snow cover I ever saw. I'd like to see a cold Christmas week for a change instead of 70 and Sunny... DJFM monthly nao for winters with at least 30" of snowfall in Central Park... season........Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....lowest/date... 1955-56......0.17...-0.22...-1.12...-0.05.....-1.114....12/17 1957-58......0.12...-0.54...-1.06...-1.96.....-1.651....1/22 1959-60......0.44...-1.29...-1.89...-0.50.....-2.120....1/16 1960-61......0.06....0.41....0.45....0.55.....-0.781....12/9 1963-64.....-1.27...-0.95...-1.43...-1.20.....-2.397....12/13 1966-67......0.72...-0.89....0.19....1.51.....-2.210....1/8 1968-69.....-1.40...-0.83...-1.55...-1.56.....-1.697....12/6 1977-78.....-1.00....0.66...-2.20....0.70.....-2.172....2/13 1993-94......1.56....1.04....0.46....1.26.....-0.854....12/26 1995-96.....-1.67...-0.12...-0.07...-0.24.....-1.846....12/7 2000-01.....-0.58....0.25....0.45...-1.26.....-1.658....12/7 2002-03.....-0.94....0.16....0.62....0.32.....-1.585....12/10 2003-04......0.64...-0.29...-0.14....1.02.....-1.449....1/28 2004-05......1.21....1.51...-0.06...-1.83.....-1.486....3/14 2005-06.....-0.44....1.27...-0.51...-1.28.....-1.360....2/27 2009-10.....-1.93...-1.11...-1.98...-0.88.....-2.250....1/3 2010-11.....-1.85...-0.88....0.70....0.61.....-2.023....12/1 2013-14......0.95....0.29....1.34....0.80.....-0.529....1/12 2014-15......1.86....1.79....1.32....1.45.....-0.909....12/28 2015-16......2.24....0.12....1.58....0.73.....-1.014....1/12 2016-17......0.48....0.48....1.00....0.74.....-1.002....12/6 2017-18......0.00....1.44....1.58...-0.93.....-1.719....3/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Temperatures rose into the middle and even upper 80s across most of the region today. A thick line of severe thunderstorms moved across parts of Massachusetts late in the day with wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and hail. Through 8:05 pm, Boston picked up 1.30" rain. Worcester received 1.72" rain, which surpass the previous daily record of 1.33" from 1970. Tomorrow and Tuesday could see readings approach or reach 90° in much of the region. There is a risk of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms tomorrow and Tuesday. The month could end on a cool note before temperatures return to above normal levels during the first week of September. In addition, the remnants of Laura could exit off the Middle Atlantic coast late this week. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. Parts of the West continued to experience near record to record warmth. Select high temperatures included: Death Valley, CA: 121° Denver: 98° (Tied record set in 2009 and tied in 2011) Flagstaff: 88° Lake Havasu City, AZ: 111° Las Vegas: 105° Needles, CA: 113° Palm Springs, CA: 113° Phoenix: 110° Pueblo, CO: 99° Tucson: 106° Yuma, AZ: 110° At Death Valley, the temperature topped out at 121°. That was the 10th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 120° or above and is the longest August stretch since August 6-17, 2012 when the mercury reached 120° or above on 12 consecutive days. Phoenix has an implied near 100% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature of 96.6° - 97.0°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. August 2020 could approach or exceed that figure. There is currently an implied 61% probability that August will exceed July's monthly record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions will likely develop. The SOI was +9.53. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.258. On August 22, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.700 (RMM). The August 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.529. The MJO's recent passage through Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above has been fairly uncommon during the August 10-25 timeframe. During the 1981-2019 period only 2002 and 2004 saw the MJO move through Phase 8 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during this period. Both cases were followed by a warmer than normal September. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°. Finally, on August 22, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.317 million square kilometers (JAXA). There is an implied 89% probability that Arctic sea ice extent will reach a minimum figure below 4.000 million square kilometers for the second consecutive year and third time on record. The highest 25% bound is 3.840 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 3.460 million square kilometers. 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SACRUS Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 8/23 New Brnswck: 88 TEB: 87 LGA: 87 EWR: 87 NYC: 86 TTN: 85 PHL: 84 ACY: 84 BLM: 84 JFK: 83 ISP: 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 No heat wave except vicinity CDW and POU which should continue today and possibly Tue. Typical summer. Saw interesting UKMET 2m temps for NYC Thu...modeled warmest NYC at 00z, instead of 18z., implying warm air advection but not much shower-thunderstorm activity. Hmmm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 The last 8 days of August are averaging 81degs., or 7.5degs. AN. Month to date is +1.5[77.1]. August should end at +2.9[78.1]-----or correcting a +5* GFS bias----end at +1.6[76.8]. 75*(93%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue sky. Getting away lucky here at just 80*(80%RH) by Noon. 81* by 12:30pm. 83*(75%RH) at 1pm. 84*(73%RH) at 1:30pm-Heat Index is 91* Nearest TS now near Allentown. 85*(78%RH) at 3pm, Heat Index is 95*. Got to 89* at 5:30pm. 86* at 6:30pm. Quick look at Sept: Weeks 1,2 near Normal, + bias. 5820-40m 500mb Heights stick around. Weeks 3,4 near Normal but with a -- bias. So overall Normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 79/ 69 here. Hot late summer next 36 hours with 90s possible outside of any storms/clouds that may form which are likely later today and Tuesday. Strong north/ NE flow 12 - 18 hours Wednesday gives a brief reprieve from the late summer warmth before stronger heat returns Thu and Fri (pending on remnants of Laura). Overnight models, epsecially the ECM now have the remnants of Laura later Fri (overnight) into Sat. Either way warm and humid this week next 4 of 5 days with thunderstorm potential. The upcoming weekend will see cooler air in the wake of Laura's remnants later Saturday and Sunday (8/30) and continue a day or so before return SW flow brings more warmth 9/2. We'll see the timing for Labor Day weekend way out there but looks like a few days warmth followed by brief cool downs 9/2 - 9/7. Ridging may dig into the EC beyond there for a period in early/mid next month. Next tropical threat could be an East coast one by labor day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 On 8/21/2020 at 12:14 PM, lee59 said: Yea 2005 was a bad year, especially for Florida. After that season we set a record by going 11 seasons in a row without a major hurricane hitting the United States. I wonder why no majors this year? Too much shear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 18 hours ago, forkyfork said: newark airport needs a seabreeze wall lol you got that idea from me since I always talk about putting a sea breeze wall up on the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 17 hours ago, bluewave said: It could be the 5th La Niña-like winter in a row for us. The La Niña background state has been very persistent since 16-17. The SE Ridge was a big player for us last 4 winters. La Niña winter snowfall is usually determined by whether NYC gets 3” of snow in December or not. So we should get an early idea of seasonal snowfall potential. Every La Niña-like snowfall season since 95-96 with under 3” in December turned out below normal like the last 2 winters. All the 3”+ Decembers featured above normal seasonal snowfall. Even the mild La Niña winters like 17-18, 16-17 and 05-06 did well in the snowfall department. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 I remember we had a close miss in mid December 2010 and most thought we'd have a very low snowfall season, and then the big multi model bust came that gave us the Boxing Day surprise and the rest, as they say, was history (and historic.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: lol you got that idea from me since I always talk about putting a sea breeze wall up on the south shore. Interesting topic, LB, conceptual plagiarism. As always ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 11AM Roundup EWR: 85 ACY: 85 LGA: 85 New Brnswck: 85 TEB: 85 ISP: 84 BLM: 84 TTN: 83 JFK: 83 PHL: 82 NYC: 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Numerous stations around the Northeast are having their warmest summer through August 23rd. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 79.5 0 2 2010-08-23 79.4 0 3 2016-08-23 78.5 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 75.3 4 2 2016-08-23 75.2 0 - 2010-08-23 75.2 0 3 2019-08-23 74.5 0 Time Series Summary for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 74.9 0 2 2019-08-23 74.1 0 - 2005-08-23 74.1 0 3 2010-08-23 74.0 0 Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 72.8 0 2 1949-08-23 72.4 0 3 1995-08-23 72.2 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 67.7 0 2 1995-08-23 66.5 0 - 1970-08-23 66.5 0 Time Series Summary for Manchester Area, NH (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 75.0 0 2 2018-08-23 73.5 2 3 2019-08-23 73.1 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Numerous stations around the Northeast are having their warmest summer through August 23rd. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 79.5 0 2 2010-08-23 79.4 0 3 2016-08-23 78.5 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 75.3 4 2 2016-08-23 75.2 0 - 2010-08-23 75.2 0 3 2019-08-23 74.5 0 Time Series Summary for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 74.9 0 2 2019-08-23 74.1 0 - 2005-08-23 74.1 0 3 2010-08-23 74.0 0 Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 72.8 0 2 1949-08-23 72.4 0 3 1995-08-23 72.2 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 67.7 0 2 1995-08-23 66.5 0 - 1970-08-23 66.5 0 Time Series Summary for Manchester Area, NH (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 23 Missing Count 1 2020-08-23 75.0 0 2 2018-08-23 73.5 2 3 2019-08-23 73.1 0 and that's with June being average to below average especially the first 3 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Noon Roundup LGA: 88 New Brnswck: 88 ACY: 87 TEB: 87 NYC: 86 BLM: 86 EWR: 86 ISP: 85 JFK: 85 PHL: 84 TTN: 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 24, 2020 Share Posted August 24, 2020 Storms fring in E PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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