Rtd208 Posted August 27, 2020 Author Share Posted August 27, 2020 Current temp 92/DP 72/RH 52% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Hit 89 today, surprised. 88/72 here. Lots of shear around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Harrisburg made it to 98° with the warm downslope flow. Late afternoon high temperatures for our area as WAA keeps going into this evening. 850s peak at +18C to +20 C in a few hours. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KCXY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 91/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 91° now in Wantagh with a 96° HX. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 90/71 heat index 96 right now, i dont think i get much of anything at least in the near term, for severe since it looks like storms will be mostly too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 93/73 HI 101 @ 4:48 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 91/73 (HI 100). Didn’t think we’d make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 92, off a high of 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted August 27, 2020 Share Posted August 27, 2020 Current and high temp of 93, dew 69 Hazy sunshine, dark clouds looking north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 Parts of southern New York State and Connecticut saw severe thunderstorms this afternoon. North of the frontal boundary, readings stayed mainly in the 60s and 70s. South of the front, temperatures topped out into the upper 80s and lower 90s. High temperatures included: Albany: 69° Allentown: 93° Baltimore: 94° Bridgeport: 88° Harrisburg: 95° Hartford: 77° Islip: 90° New York City-JFK: 92° New York City-LGA: 94° New York City-NYC: 90° Newark: 93° Philadelphia: 93° Washington, DC: 93° 90° Days for Select Cities (through August 27): Albany: 13 (2019: 12 days) Allentown: 24 (2019: 24 days) Baltimore: 44 (2019: 59 days) Boston: 14 (2019: 15 days) Burlington: 20 (2019: 8 days) Harrisburg: 34 (2019: 33 days) Hartford: 39 (2019: 27 days) Islip: 8 (2019: 8 days) New York City-JFK: 12 (2019: 7 days) New York City-LGA: 34 (2019: 26 days) New York City-NYC: 20 (2019: 15 days) Newark: 31 (2019: 28 days) Philadelphia: 35 (2019: 35 days) Scranton: 25 (2019: 12 days) Washington, DC: 43 (2019: 62 days) New York City-Newark Average: 24 (2019: 19 days) ...Expected: 25 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) Tomorrow will be another very warm day. However, the month could end on a cool note before temperatures again return to above normal levels during the first week of September. Overall, the September 1-15 period could run several degrees above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. After having made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph near Cameron, LA, Laura weakened but continued to bring heavy rain to parts of the Gulf region. Through 8 pm, select daily rainfall amounts included: Lafayette, LA: 5.71" (old record: 3.77", 1967) Little Rock: 2.78" Pine Bluff, AR: 2.69" (old record: 1.37", 2017) Shreveport: 2.04" (old record: 1.76", 1940) Laura will likely exit off the Delmarva Peninsula late Saturday night. The system has the potential to bring an area of 1"-3" rain with locally higher amounts across parts of Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula, along with another area with pockets of moderate to heavy rain along a frontal boundary to its north. The New York City area and adjacent suburbs could pick up 0.25"-0.75" rain. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, providing a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. Parts of the West continued to experience near record and record high temperatures. Select high temperatures included: Death Valley, CA: 114° Denver: 96° Flagstaff: 87° Kingman, AZ: 104° Lake Havasu City, AZ 113° Las Vegas: 106° Needles, CA: 115° Palm Springs, CA: 116° Phoenix: 113° (tied record set in 1981 and tied in 2009) Pueblo, CO: 98° Tucson: 107° Yuma, AZ: 115° Phoenix has an implied near 100% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature near 96.8°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. August 2020 could approach or exceed that figure. There is currently an implied 61% probability that August will exceed July's monthly record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely evolve into La Niña conditions during the fall. The SOI was -0.67. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.507. On August 26, daily MJO data was unavailable. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. New York City has had 18 days on which the temperature reached 90° or above during July-August 2020. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°. Summer 2020 will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°, which would tie 2020 as Central Park's 4th warmest summer with 1949, 1983, and 1993. At LaGuardia Airport, summer 2020 will likely finish with a mean temperature of 79.4°. That would surpass the existing summer record of 79.2°, which was set in 2010. Finally, on August 25, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.173 million square kilometers (JAXA). There is an implied 93% probability that Arctic sea ice extent will reach a minimum figure below 4.000 million square kilometers for the second consecutive year and third time on record. The highest 25% bound is 3.840 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 3.575 million square kilometers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 8/27 LGA: 94 EWR: 94 PHL: 93 ACY: 93 ISP: 92 JFK: 92 TTN: 92 TEB: 92 BLM: 91 New Brnswck: 91 NYC: 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 IPT missed the record high by a degree. Looks like CDW was the warmest in our area at 95°. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KCDW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 91/65 temp split today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 10 hours ago, binbisso said: 77* in the bronx. Very unlikely to get to mid to upper 90's here. I checked several forecast not one has a higher temperature than 90 degrees for any part of our area today. That would be Northern New Jersey New York City metro Long Island Southeast New York and Southwest Connecticut don't know where those mid and Upper 90 are coming from. Maybe Central Southern New Jersey and the Philly area Lga hit 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 I had a 92/67 split today with a brief downpour this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Lga hit 94 Yeah not surprising LGA hit 94 as well as Newark but 99% of the region was between 88 and 92 which was well forecast buy all weather Outlets. Those two sites will always run warmer and are not a very good representation of their region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 The last 4 days of August are averaging 78degs., or 4.5degs. AN. Month to date is +1.9[77.2]. August should end at +2.1[77.3], or correcting for a +3 bias of the GFS at this range, end at +1.7[76.9]. It still appears while final arrangements to open the NYC School System on Sept. 10th. is in progress-----there is a chance they may have to be making simultaneous plans to fashion them out as hurricane shelters. A Cat. 3 still showing up near EC on some runs for Sept. 12,13. Critical period for this latter outcome will take place the first week of Sept. Meanwhile Laura Leftovers may leave from 0.5" to 1.2" here, mostly from 11am-5pm Saturday. 71*(88%RH) here at 6am, m. clear-cirrus. 78*(72%RH) by 11am. 80*(67*RH) at Noon. 85*(60%RH) by 4pm, but some light rain now threatening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 All our major stations are top 5 warmest for the summer so far. LGA, ISP, and BDR are currently in 1st place. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 79.6 4 2 2010 79.1 0 3 2016 78.8 0 4 2005 78.0 0 5 2018 77.9 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 74.7 4 - 2010 74.7 0 3 1999 74.5 0 4 2016 74.4 0 5 2011 73.9 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 75.6 8 2 2016 75.4 0 3 2010 75.0 0 4 2018 74.3 0 5 2012 74.2 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 77.8 0 2 1966 77.3 0 3 2005 77.1 0 4 2020 77.0 4 5 1993 76.9 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1993 79.2 0 2 2010 78.7 0 3 1994 78.5 0 4 2011 78.0 0 5 2020 77.8 4 - 2005 77.8 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 77.1 0 2 2016 76.5 0 3 2015 76.0 0 4 2020 75.8 4 - 2011 75.8 0 5 1983 75.6 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: All our major stations are top 5 warmest for the summer so far. LGA, ISP, and BDR are currently in 1st place. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 79.6 4 2 2010 79.1 0 3 2016 78.8 0 4 2005 78.0 0 5 2018 77.9 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 74.7 4 - 2010 74.7 0 3 1999 74.5 0 4 2016 74.4 0 5 2011 73.9 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 75.6 8 2 2016 75.4 0 3 2010 75.0 0 4 2018 74.3 0 5 2012 74.2 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 77.8 0 2 1966 77.3 0 3 2005 77.1 0 4 2020 77.0 4 5 1993 76.9 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1993 79.2 0 2 2010 78.7 0 3 1994 78.5 0 4 2011 78.0 0 5 2020 77.8 4 - 2005 77.8 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 77.1 0 2 2016 76.5 0 3 2015 76.0 0 4 2020 75.8 4 - 2011 75.8 0 5 1983 75.6 0 Taking a quick look, my station looks like it will finish 2nd warmest, behind 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 49 minutes ago, doncat said: Taking a quick look, my station looks like it will finish 2nd warmest, behind 2010. It was just unusual to have so many 95° days without reaching 100°. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Max Temperature 1 1955 14 100 2 2020 13 97 - 1999 13 101 3 2012 11 101 4 2010 10 103 4 1995 10 103 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 76/67. 0.77 rain yesterday morning (0.14 / .53 evening) missed the worst which was north f this area. Late summer heat and humidity today with more storms arriving later and that timing will determine how widespread 90s are today. Gloomy start to the weekend with rain and storms Saturday (8/29). Dryer and very nice Sunday (8/30) and Monday (8/31) similar to Wednesday (8/26) weather. By the start of the month the Western Atlantic Ridge is expanding west in the more classic Bermuda high position and Tue (9/1) we are warming up. Wed (9/2) - Fri (9/5) next heatwave and shot at 90s potential before another brief cool down the first half of the labor day weekend. Beyond there warmer air looks to return by labor day (9/7) and the subsequent week. Tropics need to be watched in this period 9/9 - 913 EC / FL. WAR nearby expanding west in spurts , WC ridge pushing into the plains and should set the stage for a very warm period in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 34 minutes ago, bluewave said: It was just unusual to have so many 95° days without reaching 100°. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Max Temperature 1 1955 14 100 2 2020 13 97 - 1999 13 101 3 2012 11 101 4 2010 10 103 4 1995 10 103 Warmer / more humid flow lots of WV capping temps and keeping overall warmth these past years. Still wonder if there isnt a rogue triple digit looming in early September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: Warmer / more humid flow lots of WV capping temps and keeping overall warmth these past years. Still wonder if there isnt a rogue triple digit looming in early September. Yeah, it’s the orientation of the ridge axis allowing more onshore flow and humidity with the heat. The Bermuda High axis extending toward. SE New England has allowed the much more humid pattern during recent summers. Our summers with more 100° heat from 2010 to 2013 featured a flatter Bermuda High into the Southeast allowing more westerly flow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 This afternoon, the temperature rose into the middle 80s in New York City under mainly sunny skies. Four photos from The New York Botanical Garden: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 89 today, sneaky warm. I have had like 6-7 89s this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 28, 2020 Share Posted August 28, 2020 This month was probably one of the warmest Eastern Trough patterns that we have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 Laura will likely exit off the Delmarva Peninsula late tomorrow night. The system has the potential to bring an area of 1"-3" rain with locally higher amounts across parts of Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula, along with another area with pockets of moderate to perhaps heavy rain along a frontal boundary to its north. The New York City area and adjacent suburbs could pick up 0.25"-0.75" rain. August will likely end on a cool note before temperatures again return to above normal levels during the first week of September. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, providing a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. Parts of the West continued to experience near record and record high temperatures. Select high temperatures included: Death Valley: 115°, Kingman, AZ: 105° Lake Havasu City, AZ: 113° Las Vegas: 106° Needles, CA: 115° Palm Springs, CA: 116° Phoenix: 112° Tucson: 107° (tied record set in 1998) Yuma, AZ: 113° Phoenix has an implied near 100% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature near 96.8°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. August 2020 could approach or exceed that figure. There is currently an implied 60% probability that August will exceed July's monthly record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely evolve into La Niña conditions during the fall. The SOI was +9.65. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.512. On August 27, daily MJO data was unavailable. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. New York City has had 18 days on which the temperature reached 90° or above during July-August 2020. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°. Summer 2020 will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°, which would tie 2020 as Central Park's 4th warmest summer with 1949, 1983, and 1993. At LaGuardia Airport, summer 2020 will likely finish with a mean temperature of 79.4°. That would surpass the existing summer record of 79.2°, which was set in 2010. Finally, on August 27, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.157 million square kilometers (JAXA). There is an implied 93% probability that Arctic sea ice extent will reach a minimum figure below 4.000 million square kilometers for the second consecutive year and third time on record. The highest 25% bound is 3.857 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 3.618 million square kilometers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 8/28 ACY: 91 PHL: 90 EWR: 89 LGA: 89 TTN: 88 BLM: 87 TEB: 87 New Brnswck: 87 ISP: 86 NYC: 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 88/69 split today. 92/66 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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