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August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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High of 92, low of 75 today.

I have to tally up my 90+ days, but I can say there have been way less 89’s this summer compared to the previous two. I hate 89’s.

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36 minutes ago, Cfa said:

High of 92, low of 75 today.

I have to tally up my 90+ days, but I can say there have been way less 89’s this summer compared to the previous two. I hate 89’s.

90+

  • 2018: 17 (max of 99)
  • 2019: 14 (max of 98)
  • 2020: 25 (max of 97)

89’s

  • 2018: 6
  • 2019: 9
  • 2020: 2

86+ (30°C)

  • 2018: 38
  • 2019: 38
  • 2020: 44

70+ lows

  • 2018: 40 (max min of 77)
  • 2019: 19 (max min of 78)
  • 2020: 32 (max min of 80)
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LGA moves into 5th place for the most 90° days. BDL is currently in 1st place tied with 1983.

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 48 0
2 2018 38 0
3 2002 35 0
4 1991 34 0
5 2016 32 0
  2020 32 129


 

Time Series Summary for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2020 38 130
- 1983 38 0
3 2002 35 0
4 2010 34 0
- 1965 34 0
5 2018 32 0

 

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1 hour ago, Cfa said:

High of 92, low of 75 today.

I have to tally up my 90+ days, but I can say there have been way less 89’s this summer compared to the previous two. I hate 89’s.

27 ,  90° days here so far...my record is 44 days in 2010. I have recorded 12 years with more than this year...of course there's still more to come. Have to check my 70° mins and see where we stand on that.

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The tiniest weeniest cell is hitting here in Piscataway.  Looks like hardly enough rain to cover a few city blocks but it is making lots of angry thunder.

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Cloudy 89, after a high of 93.  31st of the year. Basically following LGA, but a little less 95+ days.  Looking back, mid July to early Aug was almost wall to wall 90s. 7/24, and 7/31 broke up what would of been a super heat wave.

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Under partly to mostly sunny skies, readings soared into the upper 80s and even some lower 90s across the region today. Parts of the region, especially eastern Pennsylvania and also New England saw scattered thunderstorms. Highs included:

Allentown: 89°
Baltimore: 91°
Harrisburg: 92°
Hartford: 89°
Islip: 88°
New York City-JFK: 88°
New York City-LGA: 93° (tied record set in 1998)
New York City-NYC: 90°
Newark: 93°
Philadelphia: 91°
Washington, DC: 89°

90° Days for Select Cities (through August 24):

Albany: 13 (2019: 12 days)
Allentown: 23 (2019: 24 days)
Baltimore: 42 (2019: 59 days)
Boston: 14 (2019: 15 days)
Burlington: 20 (2019: 8 days)
Harrisburg: 32 (2019: 33 days)
Hartford: 38 (2019: 27 days)
Islip: 6 (2019: 8 days)
New York City-JFK: 10 (2019: 7 days)
New York City-LGA: 32 (2019: 26 days)
New York City-NYC: 19 (2019: 15 days)
Newark: 29 (2019: 28 days)
Philadelphia: 33 (2019: 35 days)
Scranton: 24 (2019: 12 days)
Washington, DC: 41 (2019: 62 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 23 (2019: 19 days)
...Expected: 23 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Tomorrow could again see readings approach or reach 90° in much of the region. There will be a risk of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. The month could end on a cool note before temperatures return to above normal levels during the first week of September.

The remnants of Laura could exit off the Delmarva Peninsula this weekend. The system has the potential to bring a period of heavy rain along or near its path and another area of heavy rain along a frontal boundary to its north. There remains some uncertainty about Laura's track and the location of the front.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, providing a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.

Parts of the West continued to experience near record to record warmth. Select high temperatures included:

Death Valley, CA: 120°
Denver: 98° (tied record set in 2011)
Flagstaff: 87°
Kingman, AZ: 106°
Lake Havasu City, AZ: 113°
Las Vegas: 107°
Needles, CA: 116°
Palm Springs, CA: 115°
Phoenix: 115° (tied record set in 1985)
Pueblo, CO: 100°
Tucson: 107°
Yuma, AZ: 116°

Today was the 11th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 120° or above at Death Valley. It is the longest August stretch since August 6-17, 2012 when the mercury reached 120° or above on 12 consecutive days.

Phoenix has an implied near 100% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature of 96.7° - 96.9°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. August 2020 could approach or exceed that figure. There is currently an implied 62% probability that August will exceed July's monthly record.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely evolve into La Niña conditions during the fall.

The SOI was +11.17.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.793.

On August 23, the MJO was unavailable.

The MJO's recent passage through Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above has been fairly uncommon during the August 10-25 timeframe. During the 1981-2019 period only 2002 and 2004 saw the MJO move through Phase 8 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during this period. Both cases were followed by a warmer than normal September.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°.

Finally, on August 23, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.266 million square kilometers (JAXA). There is an implied 91% probability that Arctic sea ice extent will reach a minimum figure below 4.000 million square kilometers for the second consecutive year and third time on record. The highest 25% bound is 3.825 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 3.473 million square kilometers.

 

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all the la nina Decembers since 2000 had at least 3" of snow except in 2011 which had 3" in October...2000, 2005, 2008, 2010, 2017 had at least 6" of snow and a snowstorm at least 4"...

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3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

The tiniest weeniest cell is hitting here in Piscataway.  Looks like hardly enough rain to cover a few city blocks but it is making lots of angry thunder.

.19 here 

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The last 7 days are averaging 80degs., or 6.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +1.8[77.3].    August.should end near +2.7[77.9].       Corrected for GFS +5 bias, +1.6[76.8].

All models have 3 more 90-Degree Days before summer ends, 8/31.

Tropical debris figure on leaving just 0.5"-1.0" around Saturday.

75*(83%RH) here at 6am, scattered overcast.      79*(77%RH) by 9am.        85*(60%RH) by Noon.

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We continue with a record number of 70° minimums from June 1st through August 24th.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 53 0
2 1908-08-24 52 0
3 1906-08-24 50 0
4 2010-08-24 49 0
5 2005-08-24 47 0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 51 0
2 2010-08-24 50 0
- 1973-08-24 50 0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2006-08-24 62 0
2 2020-08-24 61 0
3 2010-08-24 59 0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 37 4
2 2016-08-24 34 0
3 2010-08-24 33 0

 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 50 0
2 2010-08-24 39 2
3 2018-08-24 32 0
- 2016-08-24 32 1
- 2015-08-24 32 0
- 2002-08-24 32 0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 32 0
2 2010-08-24 31 0
- 1988-08-24 31 0

 

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So far, Sunday-Monday have only produced 2-3 tiny clusters of significant activity in our area (CT,NJ), though the northern fringe of our forum (NYS/CT) is now getting decent heavy showers/thunderstorms around 8A-9A. 

We'll see what comes up for us this afternoon, Thursday and now a D5 SPC OUTLOOK not added here, nor topic'd,  since we already have a Laura remnant  topic for Fri-Sat.  For many all of this will be routine, but there will be a few hot spots of rocking weather the rest of this week. Should  become a little more interesting. 

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Morning thoughts...


At 9:12 am, a dying thunderstorm was located near Waterbury and headed east-southeastward. Following the departure of that thunderstorm, clouds should break in Hartford allowing the temperature to approach or reach 90°. If the temperature reaches 90°, that would be Hartford's record-breaking 39th such day this summer. The record is 38 days, which was set in 1983 and tied in 2020.

Around the region, 9 am temperatures included:

Hartford: 75°
New York City: 78°
Newark: 80°
Philadelphia: 77°
Poughkeepsie: 77°

Much of the region will see high temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Parts of the area could see a strong or severe thunderstorm this afternoon or evening.

Laura is now a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. There is a distinct possibility that it could be this season's first major landfalling hurricane. The remnants of Laura could exit off the Delmarva Peninsula this weekend.

 

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Summer stats thus far:

18 90 degree days

28 70 degree lows

Mean temp for July was 78.1, warmest in my 5 years here, beating out 2019 by 0.5. 

2019 had 14 total 90 degree days (2 in october) and 26 70 degree lows

2018 had 13 total 90 degree days (1 in September)

2017 had 13 90 degree days

2015 had 6 90 degree days. 

 

In sum, this summer will go down as the warmest since i have lived here (only 5 years)

 

 

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84/70.  Sunny and warm.  More 90s today likely ahead of the cold front / storms.  Northerly flow Wed keeps the heat away for 12 - 18 hours before hot SW flow returns  on Thu and brings in stronger 95(=) heat potential and maybe some record highs - well modeled in advance. With Laura nowlikely further south and west and remnants not impacting the EC till later Fri night/ Sat, Fri should see low to mid 90s as well.  Outside chance if Laura stays well south that Saturday is sneaky warm. 

Cool down Sun (8/30) - Tue (9/1) before we warm things up Wed (9/2). The next shot at 90s looks like a 1 - 2 day window the middle/end of next week 9/3 - 9/5.  

Longer range ridging looks to setup along the EC towards mid month.

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For areas near the coast, 70° minimums are the benchmark. Further into the interior, it becomes 65°, 60°, and 55°. Numerous stations across the region are at the top for their corresponding benchmark records. Many stations have had 50 or more days reach those benchmarks.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 32 0
2 2010-08-24 31 0
- 1988-08-24 31 0


 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 50 0
2 2010-08-24 39 2
3 2018-08-24 32 0


 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 37 4
2 2016-08-24 34 0
3 2010-08-24 33 0


 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2006-08-24 62 0
2 2020-08-24 61 0
3 2010-08-24 59 0


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 53 0
2 1908-08-24 52 0
3 1906-08-24 50 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 51 0
2 2010-08-24 50 0
- 1973-08-24 50 0


 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 65 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 52 0
2 2019-08-24 47 1
- 2012-08-24 47 0
- 2010-08-24 47 2


 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 60 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 58 2
2 2019-08-24 51 0
- 2018-08-24 51 0


 

Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 60 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 64 1
2 1973-08-24 62 0
3 2005-08-24 61 1

 

 

Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 60 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 63 0
2 2019-08-24 52 0
3 2018-08-24 51 0

 

Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 60 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2018-08-24 53 0
2 2020-08-24 49 7
- 2005-08-24 49 3


 

Time Series Summary for MOUNT POCONO POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AP, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 55 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 67 0
2 2010-08-24 63 0
3 2005-08-24 61 1
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21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

For areas near the coast, 70° minimums are the benchmark. Further into the interior, it becomes 65°, 60°, and 55°. Numerous stations across the region are at the top for their corresponding benchmark records. Widespread 50 or greater number days across the board from June 1st through August 24th. 

Absolutely.  Its been a warm summer for sure but IMBY, nothing notable as far as record highs or heat waves, just a lot of well above average.  In 2013 for example I had 14 70 degree lows,  I average 4.9 lows of 70 and its only been 2 thus far with only 6 90 degree days.

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53 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

84/70.  Sunny and warm.  More 90s today likely ahead of the cold front / storms.  Northerly flow Wed keeps the heat away for 12 - 18 hours before hot SW flow returns  on Thu and brings in stronger 95(=) heat potential and maybe some record highs - well modeled in advance. With Laura nowlikely further south and west and remnants not impacting the EC till later Fri night/ Sat, Fri should see low to mid 90s as well.  Outside chance if Laura stays well south that Saturday is sneaky warm. 

Cool down Sun (8/30) - Tue (9/1) before we warm things up Wed (9/2). The next shot at 90s looks like a 1 - 2 day window the middle/end of next week 9/3 - 9/5.  

Longer range ridging looks to setup along the EC towards mid month.

Ominous setup with northeast ridging for September. Opens the door for tropical systems.

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33 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Absolutely.  Its been a warm summer for sure but IMBY, nothing notable as far as record highs or heat waves, just a lot of well above average.  In 2013 for example I had 14 70 degree lows,  I average 4.9 lows of 70 and its only been 2 thus far with only 6 90 degree days.

Yeah, looks like you were one of the cooler spots along the general I- 84 corridor.

 

Time Series Summary for WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2005-08-24 74.7 0
2 2020-08-24 74.2 0
3 1949-08-24 73.8 0
4 1995-08-24 73.4 0
5 2016-08-24 73.1 0
6 1955-08-24 72.7 0
7 1966-08-24 72.6 0
8 2010-08-24 72.5 0
9 2019-08-24 72.3 0
10 1993-08-24 72.0 0

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 73.0 2
2 2005-08-24 72.5 0
3 2018-08-24 71.7 0
- 2016-08-24 71.7 1
- 2010-08-24 71.7 2

 

Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2005-08-24 73.3 3
2 2016-08-24 72.3 2
3 2018-08-24 72.1 0
- 2010-08-24 72.1 0
5 2002-08-24 72.0 1
- 1999-08-24 72.0 2
7 2020-08-24 71.7 7


 

Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2005-08-24 74.5 1
2 2020-08-24 74.3 1
3 2016-08-24 74.1 0

 

 

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