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Rtd208

August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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another high dewpoint warm front showing up on the models for sunday

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Striped from the July discussion

Warm and wet:  Mon (8/2) through Thu (8/6) hung up pattern W. AR offshore with higher heights along the east coast, Rockies ridge and trough nearby into the GL/OV with waves of low pressure riding along the front.  Pending on stegth of the WAR will see placement of the heaviest and persistent showers.  Looks humid/ warm and wet with limited chances for 90s in this period.  Beyond there the Rockies ridge should eject east and push more strong heat into the plains, GL and eventually the EC. Pending on the WAR, could see another very warm and hot period start the second week of August.

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SPC Day 2

...Northeast...
   Moderate destabilization near and south of the surface warm front,
   combined with veering wind profiles with 35-50 kt of effective
   shear, will result in a conditionally favorable environment for
   supercells across much of central/eastern PA/NY and northern NJ by
   Sunday afternoon. However, substantial uncertainty remains regarding
   storm coverage across the region with the most favorable
   environment. Large-scale ascent associated with the departing
   shortwave trough is expected to primarily remain north of the
   international border, with a capping inversion around 700 mb
   potentially limiting deep convection across much of the warm sector.

   At least isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along an
   eastward-moving surface trough Sunday afternoon. All hazards would
   be possible with any sustained deep convection. A Slight Risk has
   been introduced from northeast PA into central NY, where confidence
   in storm coverage is somewhat greater due to potentially stronger
   heating and instability compared to areas further north and east. 

day2otlk_0600.gif

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The first 8 days of August are averaging 83degs., or about 6.5degs. AN.      The idiot GFS has +5 bias, I have found.

74*(84%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.     75*(83%RH) at 7am.           79*(78%RH} by Noon.     80*(75%RH) at 1pm.

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The record breaking high dew point pattern continues into early August. This is the first 5 consecutive years with 10 or more 75° or higher dew point days at one of our stations. Sunday is on track for day 11 this year at JFK as dew points surge into the upper 70s.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2020&dpi=100&_fmt=js

DBD0A047-1CF4-4912-A0B3-392F644DD608.thumb.jpeg.800491c1f7ea33d8027beb6aa4c91413.jpeg
47A2C4C7-2EF7-4623-9E4D-C551AA15A836.thumb.png.4d6c2fe33c78b61605108389f031ec5e.png

 

 

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84/66 and bright sunshine but clouds on the move from CPA.  We'll see if they can dissipate and we can burn some off. Today pending on clouds will see some of the warmer spots approach 90.  Sunday the same but there look to be plenty of storms nearby.  Sun and Mon will feature a spike of 850MB temps to >18c with high dew points ahead of Isaias so warm and quite wet.  Tuesday - Wed AM dealing with Isaias and plenty rain  3 - 5 inches for total storm totals Mon PM - Wed

 August opening warm and wet besides a couple of days post Isaias (8/6 - 8/7) that look drier.  Rockies ridge will shift towards the plains and heat will eject eat into the GL/MW and then east  into the area towards the middle of the second week of August where more sustained heat is possible. Stronger heat looks more possible  around or closer to mid month.

 

 

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Picked up 1.35" of rain for the day yesterday. That could prime my area for more flooding beginning tomorrow thru Wednesday depending on where the heaviest rains fall.

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Race is on for a 90 in the warmer spots  with clouds pushing into EPA and near W-NJ

 

11AM Roundup

 

 

New Brnswck: 86
PHL: 86
ISP: 85
EWR: 85
TTN: 85
ACY: 84
TEB: 83
JFK: 83
NYC: 82
LGA: 82
BLM: 82

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Sump pump overloader, mosquito barrage, and gutter busting rains being forecast this week.

p120i.gif?1596297665

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Our marine heatwave continues with SSTs near 80°.

STATION/POSITION TIME  SKY/WX   TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                                AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC)          (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
NY Harb Entrance 1450               76   70/  2/  4 1014.1          2/14
20 S Fire Island 1450               80   60/  4/  4 1014.1          3/13
Great South Bay  1430            80      CALM  /  2   N/A
23 SSW Montauk P 1450            75 78  350/  6/  8 1014.3          3/13
15 E Barnegat Li 1426               79                N/A           3/13
Hudson Canyon    1450               79              1015.9          3/


90F0AF9D-61DA-47A5-9FF4-F368732ABD03.jpeg.7088103cd796a672adcf9c57f7023e8d.jpeg

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89/70 here. High of 91 so far. Again, unexpected.

Twentieth 90 of the season.

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Noon roundup, lots of clouds inland with seabreaze pushing in along the Jersey shore

 

PHL: 88
TEB: 87
New Brnswck: 87
ISP: 86
TTN: 86
ACY: 86
LGA: 85
EWR: 85
BLM: 84
JFK: 82
NYC: 82

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Was I the only one that forgot we are in August today? I was looking for the July thread and scratched my head wondering why it wasn’t near the top. Even though most days are similar I feel like time is flying by. Can you believe it is already hockey season ;-)

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August has been a bit of a back and forth month the last decade.

EWR
2010: +1.9 -  continued hot but not like July
2011:  +1.1 - warm and record  wet after a record hot July
2012:  +1.8 -  hot after very hot July
2013: -1.1 - below normal following a very hot Jul 
2014: -1.3 -  near or below normal after a below normal  July
2015:  +2.9 - very warm after warmish July
2016:  +4.1 - very hot after warm Jul
2017:  -1.8 - cooler than normal after hot Jul
2018:   +3.4 Hot Aug after hot Juk
2019:  +0.4 near normal after hot Jul

 

 

 

 

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2PM Roundup

 

TEB: 90
New Brnswck: 89
PHL: 89
TTN: 88
EWR: 87
BLM: 86
ACY: 86
LGA: 86
ISP: 84
JFK: 83
NYC: 82

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3PM Roundup

New Brnswck: 90
TTN: 89
LGA: 89
PHL: 89
EWR: 88
BLM: 86
ACY: 8%
JFK: 85
ISP: 84
NYC: 82

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14 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

3PM Roundup

New Brnswck: 90
TTN: 89
LGA: 89
PHL: 89
EWR: 88
BLM: 86
ACY: 8%
JFK: 85
ISP: 84
NYC: 82

Central Park is 86

 

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28 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Mt.Holly (KDIX) radar down again?

Wtf is a wideband issue? Never heard that one before. 
 

Aug 01 2020 18:50:43

KDIX has a Wideband issue. Techs will be looking at it shortly.

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Warmer weather returned today. Temperatures generally topped out in the upper 80s across the region. Following its hottest month on record, LaGuardia Airport topped out at 90° to begin August.

Tomorrow, will see a front push northward across the region. Some areas could see strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. Temperatures will again be above normal.

Overall, the first week of August will likely be wetter than normal. Rainfall amounts will likely be enhanced as Isaias moves northward across the Chesapeake Bay, out to New Jersey and the northeastward on Tuesday into Wednesday. An area of 3"-6" rainfall with locally higher amounts will exist in a portion of the region.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least August, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions could develop.

The SOI was -9.23.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.645.

On July 31, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.057 (RMM). The July 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.018.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

 

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8/1


TTN: 91
TEB: 90
New Brsnwck: 90
LGA: 90
PHL: 90
NYC: 88
ISP: 88
EWR: 88
ACY: 87
BLM: 87
JFK: 86

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