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August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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8/30

EWR: 82
JFK: 82
LGA: 81
ACY: 81
BLM: 80
PHL: 80
New Brnswck: 80
ISP: 80
TEB: 80
NYC: 79
TTN: 79

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The last day of August and the meteorological summer is averaging 73degs., or just Normal.

Month to date is  +1.9[77.1].        August will end at +1.8[77.0].

67*(59%RH) here at 6am, thin overcast.

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Morning thoughts...

Temperatures started out mainly in the 50s outside the major cities and lower 60s in such cities as New York, Newark, and Philadelphia. August will end on a cool note under variably cloudy skies. There will be more clouds around than yesterday. Temperatures will reach the middle and upper 70s in the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 76°
Newark: 77°
Philadelphia: 78°

Temperatures will likely return to above normal levels near or just after mid-week. Afterward, a deep trough in Canada will move toward the Great Lakes Region and provide a period of cooler weather. That trough may persist until near mid-September.

2020 is the record 7th consecutive year that Central Park has had no August temperatures below 60°. The previous record was 3 consecutive years during 1931-33, 1995-97, and 2001-03. The last time the mercury fell below 60° was August 15, 2013 when the temperature fell to 59°.

LaGuardia Airport will conclude its warmest summer on record with a mean temperature near 79.5°. The existing record is 79.2°, which was set in 2010.

 

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Low of 58 here, first low in the 50’s since June 17th, which also had a low of 58.

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55 here lowest laost night.  70 and  Mostly cloudy looking to continue that way.  Two day of mostly sunny forecasts- yesterday (Sunday partly to mostly cloudy much of the morning and early afternoon) and today look off.  Warm up Wed - Friday with off chance of 90s in the warmer spots especially Thu and Fri before the front.  Labor Day weekend looking like a gem with highs near 80 Sat and Sunday and warming up Mon into the mid 80s.    

Beyond Labor day 9/8 - 9/14  WC ridge with trugh into Gl / MW and the Western Atlantic ridge expanding wet along the east coast.  Back and forth intrusions of cooler day or two followed by return humid/warm flow.  Looks like a block of fronts and lows west of the area into PA/ OH could see large rain amounts in the period.  Should see WC ridging breakdown a bit and push into the plains later the second half of Sep and subsequent EC heights and warm period.

 

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Islip finally dropped below 60° ending the record streak at 74 days.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KISP&table=1&num=168&banner=off

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 60 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 74 2020-08-30
2 63 1967-08-31
3 62 2015-08-28
4 61 2003-08-23
5 58 2005-09-05

 

 

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New York City's Central Park finished with a monthly mean temperature of 76.9° for August. Its summer mean temperature was also 76.9°, which tied summers 1949, 1983, and 1993 for the fourth warmest summer on record.

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with showers and some periods of rain possible. Rainfall amounts will likely come to 0.25" or less for much of the region. Temperatures will be in the middle and upper 70s.

Beyond midweek, temperatures will likely return to above normal levels. Afterward, a deep trough in Canada will move toward the Great Lakes Region and provide a period of cooler weather. Most of the colder air will stay west of the Appalachians. That trough may persist until near or just after mid-September. Nevertheless, the first half of September will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal and September, as a whole, will likely finish warmer than normal (generally 1°-3° above normal).

Parts of the Northeast and also Southwest recorded their warmest summer on record. At New York City's LaGuardia Airport, the summer mean temperature was 79.5°, which surpassed the prior record of 79.2° from 2010.
 
Phoenix had, by far, its warmest summer on record. Phoenix concluded with a summer mean temperature of 96.7°. That smashed the previous record of 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. August 2020 was surpassed July's record for the warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 99.0°. To date, Phoenix has smashed its record for most days with high temperatures of 110° or above (50), 115° or above (13), and low temperatures of 90° or above (28).

More on Phoenix's historic summer can be found here:

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around August 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely evolve into La Niña conditions during the fall.

The SOI was +21.36.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.535.

Daily MJO data remains unavailable.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Finally, on August 30, Arctic sea ice extent was 3.995 million square kilometers (JAXA). 2020 will be the second consecutive year with a minimum figure below 4.000 million square kilometers and third time on record. The highest 25% bound is 3.768 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 3.589 million square kilometers.

 

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8/31


ACY: 79
New Brnswck: 78
EWR: 78
LGA: 77
TTN: 77
PHL: 77
NYC: 77
TEB: 76
ISP: 75
JFK: 75
BLM: 75

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Several stations finished with August top 10 warmth. All our stations except Newark recorded a top 5 warmest summer. LGA established a new warmest summer on record. BDR tied for 1st with 2016 and ISP was a close 2nd to  2010. So numerous summers and summer months in the top 10 warmest just since 2010.

EWR....#10

LGA.....#5

BDR....#3

ISP......#6

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1993 79.2 0
2 2010 78.7 0
3 1994 78.5 0
4 2011 78.0 0
5 2005 77.8 0
6 1988 77.7 0
7 2020 77.6 0
- 2016 77.6 0
- 1973 77.6 0
8 1999 77.1 0
9 1995 77.0 0
10 2012 76.9 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 77.8 0
2 1966 77.3 0
3 2005 77.1 0
4 2020 76.9 0
- 1993 76.9 0
- 1983 76.9 0
6 1949 76.8 0
6 2016 76.7 0
- 1999 76.7 0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2020 79.5 0
2 2010 79.1 0
3 2016 78.8 0
4 2005 78.0 0
5 2018 77.9 0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 77.1 0
2 2016 76.5 0
3 2015 76.0 0
4 2011 75.8 0
5 2020 75.7 0
6 1983 75.6 0
7 1984 75.4 0
8 2012 75.3 0
- 1991 75.3 0
9 1971 75.2 0
- 1949 75.2 0
1p 2005 75.1 0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2020 75.4 4
- 2016 75.4 0
3 2010 75.0 0
4 2018 74.3 0
5 2012 74.2 0
Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 74.7 0
2 2020 74.6 0
3 1999 74.5 0
4 2016 74.4 0
5 2011 73.9 0
6 2019 73.8 0
7 2018 73.5 0
- 2005 73.5 0

 

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On 8/31/2020 at 8:55 PM, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's Central Park finished with a monthly mean temperature of 76.9° for August. Its summer mean temperature was also 76.9°, which tied summers 1949, 1983, and 1993 for the fourth warmest summer on record.

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with showers and some periods of rain possible. Rainfall amounts will likely come to 0.25" or less for much of the region. Temperatures will be in the middle and upper 70s.

Beyond midweek, temperatures will likely return to above normal levels. Afterward, a deep trough in Canada will move toward the Great Lakes Region and provide a period of cooler weather. Most of the colder air will stay west of the Appalachians. That trough may persist until near or just after mid-September. Nevertheless, the first half of September will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal and September, as a whole, will likely finish warmer than normal (generally 1°-3° above normal).

Parts of the Northeast and also Southwest recorded their warmest summer on record. At New York City's LaGuardia Airport, the summer mean temperature was 79.5°, which surpassed the prior record of 79.2° from 2010.
 
Phoenix had, by far, its warmest summer on record. Phoenix concluded with a summer mean temperature of 96.7°. That smashed the previous record of 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. August 2020 was surpassed July's record for the warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 99.0°. To date, Phoenix has smashed its record for most days with high temperatures of 110° or above (50), 115° or above (13), and low temperatures of 90° or above (28).

More on Phoenix's historic summer can be found here:

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around August 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely evolve into La Niña conditions during the fall.

The SOI was +21.36.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.535.

Daily MJO data remains unavailable.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Finally, on August 30, Arctic sea ice extent was 3.995 million square kilometers (JAXA). 2020 will be the second consecutive year with a minimum figure below 4.000 million square kilometers and third time on record. The highest 25% bound is 3.768 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 3.589 million square kilometers.

 

shocking that this summer matched 1993- I used the AC so much more that year, it was my hottest summer up to that point.

Don, odds that next summer NYC will have the kind of statistically anomalous summer that Phoenix had this summer?

 

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On 9/1/2020 at 7:06 AM, bluewave said:

Several stations finished with August top 10 warmth. All our stations except Newark recorded a top 5 warmest summer. LGA established a new warmest summer on record. BDR tied for 1st with 2016 and ISP was a close 2nd to  2010. So numerous summers and summer months in the top 10 warmest just since 2010.

EWR....#10

LGA.....#5

BDR....#3

ISP......#6

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1993 79.2 0
2 2010 78.7 0
3 1994 78.5 0
4 2011 78.0 0
5 2005 77.8 0
6 1988 77.7 0
7 2020 77.6 0
- 2016 77.6 0
- 1973 77.6 0
8 1999 77.1 0
9 1995 77.0 0
10 2012 76.9 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 77.8 0
2 1966 77.3 0
3 2005 77.1 0
4 2020 76.9 0
- 1993 76.9 0
- 1983 76.9 0
6 1949 76.8 0
6 2016 76.7 0
- 1999 76.7 0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2020 79.5 0
2 2010 79.1 0
3 2016 78.8 0
4 2005 78.0 0
5 2018 77.9 0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 77.1 0
2 2016 76.5 0
3 2015 76.0 0
4 2011 75.8 0
5 2020 75.7 0
6 1983 75.6 0
7 1984 75.4 0
8 2012 75.3 0
- 1991 75.3 0
9 1971 75.2 0
- 1949 75.2 0
1p 2005 75.1 0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2020 75.4 4
- 2016 75.4 0
3 2010 75.0 0
4 2018 74.3 0
5 2012 74.2 0
Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 74.7 0
2 2020 74.6 0
3 1999 74.5 0
4 2016 74.4 0
5 2011 73.9 0
6 2019 73.8 0
7 2018 73.5 0
- 2005 73.5 0

 

#5 on this list at JFK!  How is 1993 not on this list, Chris?  I remember it as being hotter than 1991.......

Also, do you have rankings for Allentown and Scranton too?  Thanks!

 

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On 8/31/2020 at 11:34 AM, bluewave said:

Islip finally dropped below 60° ending the record streak at 74 days.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KISP&table=1&num=168&banner=off

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 60 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 74 2020-08-30
2 63 1967-08-31
3 62 2015-08-28
4 61 2003-08-23
5 58 2005-09-05

 

 

Have all our local area streaks come to an end, Chris?

 

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12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

#5 on this list at JFK!  How is 1993 not on this list, Chris?  I remember it as being hotter than 1991.......

Also, do you have rankings for Allentown and Scranton too?  Thanks!

 

Numerous stations across PA also had their warmest summer. 

 

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