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August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

For areas near the coast, 70° minimums are the benchmark. Further into the interior, it becomes 65°, 60°, and 55°. Numerous stations across the region are at the top for their corresponding benchmark records. Many stations have had 50 or more days reach those benchmarks.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 32 0
2 2010-08-24 31 0
- 1988-08-24 31 0


 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 50 0
2 2010-08-24 39 2
3 2018-08-24 32 0


 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 37 4
2 2016-08-24 34 0
3 2010-08-24 33 0


 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2006-08-24 62 0
2 2020-08-24 61 0
3 2010-08-24 59 0


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 53 0
2 1908-08-24 52 0
3 1906-08-24 50 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 51 0
2 2010-08-24 50 0
- 1973-08-24 50 0


 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 65 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 52 0
2 2019-08-24 47 1
- 2012-08-24 47 0
- 2010-08-24 47 2


 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 60 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 58 2
2 2019-08-24 51 0
- 2018-08-24 51 0


 

Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 60 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 64 1
2 1973-08-24 62 0
3 2005-08-24 61 1

 

 

Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 60 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 63 0
2 2019-08-24 52 0
3 2018-08-24 51 0

 

Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 60 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2018-08-24 53 0
2 2020-08-24 49 7
- 2005-08-24 49 3


 

Time Series Summary for MOUNT POCONO POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AP, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature >= 55 Jun 1 to Aug 24
Missing Count
1 2020-08-24 67 0
2 2010-08-24 63 0
3 2005-08-24 61 1

The date unequivocally show that climate change is boosting such warm minimum temperatures. With regard to Islip, the 30-year moving averages for the periods ending in 2000 and later are:

2000: 18.9 days/year

2010: 20.4 days/year

2020: 23.7 days/year (using data through 8/14)

Islip has seen that figure increase by nearly 2.5 days per decade since 2000. The coefficient of determination is > 0.95.

Whether one is dealing with urban areas having mature footprints, suburban or exurban areas, one finds the same trend in increasing minimum temperatures (and temperatures overall).

 

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5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The date unequivocally show that climate change is boosting such warm minimum temperatures. With regard to Islip, the 30-year moving averages for the periods ending in 2000 and later are:

2000: 18.9 days/year

2010: 20.4 days/year

2020: 23.7 days/year (using data through 8/14)

Islip has seen that figure increase by nearly 2.5 days per decade since 2000. The coefficient of determination is > 0.95.

Whether one is dealing with urban areas having mature footprints, suburban or exurban areas, one finds the same trend in increasing minimum temperatures (and temperatures overall).

 

Don what kind of increase in the new daily normals are we looking at heading into January 2021 when we lose the much cooler 80s and add in the 2010 s which were much warmer

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21 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Don what kind of increase in the new daily normals are we looking at heading into January 2021 when we lose the much cooler 80s and add in the 2010 s which were much warmer

The summer average for HPN will probably increase from around 70.7 to around 71.2 or 71.3. Summer averages have been increasing about 0.5 degrees per decade.

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51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The date unequivocally show that climate change is boosting such warm minimum temperatures. With regard to Islip, the 30-year moving averages for the periods ending in 2000 and later are:

2000: 18.9 days/year

2010: 20.4 days/year

2020: 23.7 days/year (using data through 8/14)

Islip has seen that figure increase by nearly 2.5 days per decade since 2000. The coefficient of determination is > 0.95.

Whether one is dealing with urban areas having mature footprints, suburban or exurban areas, one finds the same trend in increasing minimum temperatures (and temperatures overall).

 

Yeah, it fits the pattern really well.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/climate-change-rule-thumb-cold-things-warming-faster-warm-things

Climate change rule of thumb: cold "things" warming faster than warm things

Colder places are warming faster than warmer places

Colder seasons are warming faster than warmer seasons

Colder times of day are warming more than warmer times of day

 

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Read Remotely:

On beach in Ci..    87* with a Heat Index of 91* àt 2pm.

89* and Heat Index is 95* at 3pm,-still some sandstorms.    More clouds.

West wind and some sandstorms.     Reminds of Oct. 02 last year but not 93*

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Interesting summer where areas to our north like Hartford have set 90 degree days records...My station is no where close to its record of 44 days set in 2010, with 28 days after today. Big difference in summer rain fall between said station and mine has something to do with it.

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4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea, one of those rare days where we keep warming until 3:30 or so

Yeah, I was expecting temps to level off at around 90 but it kept on going.

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2 hours ago, CIK_62 said:

Read Remotely:

On beach in CI.    87* with a Heat Index of 91* at 2pm.

89* and Heat Index is 95* at 3pm,-still some sandstorms.    More clouds.

Back home by 4:30pm    92*      Heat Index is 98*-but clouds/wind made it tolerable.

West wind and some sandstorms.     Reminds me of Oct. 02 last year but not 93*

 

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Temperatures topped out in the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region. Parts of the area also saw thundershowers during the late afternoon and evening. Hartford reached 90° this afternoon. That was the record 39th 90° or above day there. The old record was 38 days, which was set in 1983.

Tomorrow will be noticeably cooler before temperatures rebound on Thursday and Friday. However, the month could end on a cool note before temperatures again return to above normal levels during the first week of September. Overall, the September 1-15 period could run several degrees above normal in the Middle Atlantic region.

The remnants of Laura could exit off the Delmarva Peninsula this weekend. The system has the potential to bring an area of 1"-3" rain with locally higher amounts along or near its path and another area with pockets of heavy rain along a frontal boundary to its north. The New York City area and adjacent suburbs could pick up 0.50" or more rain if some of the guidance verifies. There remains some uncertainty about Laura's track and the location of the front.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, providing a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.

Parts of the West continued to experience near record to record warmth. Select high temperatures included:

Death Valley, CA: 119°
Denver: 97°
Flagstaff: 85°
Kingman, AZ: 106° (tied record set in 1919 and tied in 1985)
Lake Havasu City, AZ: 113°
Las Vegas: 110°
Needles, CA: 117°
Palm Springs, CA: 117° (tied record set in 1962)
Phoenix: 112°
Pueblo, CO: 101°
Tucson, AZ: 107° (old record: 106°, 1901, 1985, 2001 and 2002)
Yuma, AZ: 115°

Phoenix has an implied near 100% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature of 96.7° - 96.9°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. August 2020 could approach or exceed that figure. There is currently an implied 70% probability that August will exceed July's monthly record.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely evolve into La Niña conditions during the fall.

The SOI was -3.22.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.769.

On August 24, daily MJO data was unavailable.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°.

Finally, on August 24, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.237 million square kilometers (JAXA). There is an implied 92% probability that Arctic sea ice extent will reach a minimum figure below 4.000 million square kilometers for the second consecutive year and third time on record. The highest 25% bound is 3.831 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 3.508 million square kilometers.

 

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8/25

LGAL 93
EWR: 92
JFK: 92
ACY: 91
ISP: 91
BLM: 91
PHL: 91
TEB: 90
New Brnswck: 90
TTN: 89
NYC: 89
 

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Appears the worst part of what little severe there was east of the city yesterday moved over my area of Lynbrook. Came home from Jones Beach (where the storm was meh) to find a large tree on my neighbors house. The tree had most likely weakened during Isaias as I do not see signs of winds higher then 50ish. Here’s a nighttime pic, but you get the idea. (Norway Maple, weed tree) 

 

D7C0D26E-EBF3-460B-AAE5-4EF02EBC1B6B.jpeg

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The last 6 days of August are averaging 79degs., or 5.5degs. AN 

Month to date is  +1.9[77.4].         August should end at  +2.5[77.7].        Correcting for a +4 GFS bias at this range, August should end at  +1.7[76.9].

GFS actually shows more of a threat from a post frontal passage spinup Sept. 1-2(20-30mph winds and 3" of rain) than from Laura's leftovers.      Of course there is now that Cat. 4 appearing at the end of the run near the Bahamas.

70*(62%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.        69*(62%RH) at 7am.       70*(50%RH) at 10am.      71*(47%RH) at 11am.      73*(43%RH) at Noon.

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Finally got a NW flow day with dew points in the low 50s. We may see the next one Sunday into Monday.

Kennedy Intl   PTCLDY    69  53  56 NW10    
 
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72 / 54 off a low of 60.  What a gorgeous day!  Cooler air for the next 17..16.15 hours before heat returns tomorrow. Highs may reach 95(+) in the hotter spots but likely wont exceed season maxes.  Friday more heat as Laura should approach the east coast Saturday PM.  Pending on clouds and rain, Saturday sneaky warm if enough sun shines through.

Cooldown Sun (8/30) and Mon (8/31) similar to today upper 70s and cooler nights. By Tue (9/1) we are warming up towards and above normal with heat and the next shot at 90s arriving 9/3 - 9/7 time frame (Labor Day weekend) with Western Atlantic Ridge expanding west along the Mid Atlantic and NE coasts. 

 

Beyond there the W.A.R looks anchored off the east coast with trough building down into the plain and MW.  Could see hung up fronts west of the area with warmer east coast.  Ridging looks sustained into the second week of next month.  Tropics still need to keep an eye as flow around the Bermuda high which is displaced north  could aim storms FL / EC.

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Most impressive temperature gradient of the summer tomorrow ahead of the severe threat.  This will be one of the few times this year that the strongest heat won’t be found over New England. Maybe the warmest spots around the region can make another run on 95°.
 

F8E16D20-C64F-43C3-8014-8847279A8B67.thumb.gif.4f0b3927e79a440acc43aefdb223f7f3.gif

 

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On beach again.     Windy, but no sandstorms.

76*(38%RH) at 2pm.      Broken cirrostratus.

78*(36%RH) at 3pm.       80*(34%RH) at 4pm.

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