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Rtd208

August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Hang on down there.

It has been an absolutely beautiful morning up here (so far) but I can see the storm just slightly to my SSW sliding by to the east. That's not going to help me ease the precip deficit I've got going but this has been the typical setup for the last 10 weeks or so, I'm pretty much used to it.

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Yes...I agree on EC  one my go-to's for convection is the KI, very very well modeled by the EC for several cycles and the reasoning for the recent posts about a band of showers this morning NJ-LI. 

Through this afternoon-eve: Think there is a continued risk of isolated hail/svr LI, maybe coastal CT, into mid afternoon, with the more favored area for severe seemingly over the ocean s of LI.  A new southeastward moving line of heavy showers is possible late this afternoon-eve nw NJ into NYC at sunset but that should have less chance of being strong, tho not out of the question briefly a torrent. 

Fri night-Sunday: More heavy showers and thunderstorms.  Fri night-early Saturday is chancey and associated with WAA + moisture transport from the MS-TN low aloft leaking northeastward into the confluence zone. That moisture increase I think sets the stage for slow moving 2-3" pockets of big convection near NYC Sunday afternoon, ahead of the weakening shortwave, in an axis of high CAPE (2000+J), and KI looks fairly large as well along with 90 degree heat. This may become a topic eventually, but not for severe...more so intense rainfall. Right now PWAT is forecast near 1.8"...a little lower than I'd like for Thunderstorm production of 4".

Next week: interesting in it's variety of options, including eventual infusion of tropical event moisture and an approaching cold front from the northwest, developing a swath of rather high KI ahead of it and temps-heat index ahead of the front well up in the 90s with near 100 not impossible on both, for one of those days.  Forecasting 100 in late August is not smart several days in advance so will favor near 100HI eventually next week, but mid 90s temps (non sea breeze coastal plain locations ), in part due to wind direction and recent wetness. Should become interesting for convection. 

On eventual Laura/Marco: for now prior to the 29th,  the greater moisture contribution seems locked mostly south of 35 N latitude by westerly flow at our latitude but should there be any slow downs of northward advance (northward advance track in the Gulf States has to be west of 70 degrees longitude in order of for a moisture contribution in this projected flow pattern),  it then becomes a little more interesting toward the 30th. 

Below, added an update to yesterdays severe reports, Mid-2AM Monday 8/18. 1108A/19

Screen_Shot_2020-08-19_at_10_31.46_AM.png

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40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro had chances for convection across the area with the 12z run yesterday. But people often don’t pay attention when the NAM is dry.

12z Tue run

6699A2F0-49AE-4AB0-96B2-EDD65BE716C7.gif.f512d648101cb27b39987c8bb9626228.gif

0z Wed

8C5FD168-99F7-4B45-9856-64A9F5E2F624.gif.5e25d5da7d4c7a54f6f92f4fff95c119.gif

 

 


 

 

Well congrats to the euro for at least giving some showers to the area. So far today here, rainy and cool.

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9 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Yes...I agree on EC  one my go-to's for convection is the KI, very very well modeled by the EC for several cycles and the reasoning for the recent posts about a band of showers this morning NJ-LI. 

Through this afternoon-eve: Think there is a continued risk of isolated hail/svr LI, maybe coastal CT, into mid afternoon, with the more favored area for severe seemingly over the ocean s of LI.  A new southeastward moving line of heavy showers is possible late this afternoon-eve nw NJ into NYC at sunset but that should have less chance of being strong, tho not out of the question briefly a torrent. 

Fri night-Sunday: More heavy showers and thunderstorms.  Fri night-early Saturday is chancey and associated with WAA + moisture transport from the MS-TN low aloft leaking northeastward into the confluence zone. That moisture increase I think sets the stage for slow moving 2-3" pockets of big convection near NYC Sunday afternoon, ahead of the weakening shortwave, in an axis of high CAPE (2000+J), and KI looks fairly large as well along with 90 degree heat. This may become a topic eventually, but not for severe...more so intense rainfall. Right now PWAT is forecast near 1.8"...a little lower than I'd like for Thunderstorm production of 4".

Next week: interesting in it's variety of options, including eventual infusion of tropical event moisture and an approaching cold front from the northwest, developing a swath of rather high KI ahead of it and temps-heat index ahead of the front well up in the 90s with near 100 not impossible on both, for one of those days.  Forecasting 100 in late August is not smart several days in advance so will favor near 100HI eventually next week, but mid 90s temps (non sea breeze coastal plain locations ), in part due to wind direction and recent wetness. Should become interesting for convection. 

On eventual Laura/Marco: for now prior to the 29th,  the greater moisture contribution seems locked mostly south of 35 N latitude by westerly flow at our latitude but should there be any slow downs of northward advance (northward advance track in the Gulf States has to be west of 70 degrees longitude in order of for a moisture contribution in this projected flow pattern),  it then becomes a little more interesting toward the 30th. 

Below, added an update to yesterdays severe reports, Mid-2AM Monday 8/18. 1108A/19

Screen_Shot_2020-08-19_at_10_31.46_AM.png

I think your call of not forecasting  near 100 degree temperatures this far out, is smart. Climatology really makes 100 hard this time of year, even at the hot spots like LaGuardia and Newark. Average temperatures are already on the way down and by the end of August will be down some 3-4 degrees.

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1 minute ago, lee59 said:

I think your call of not forecasting  near 100 degree temperatures this far out, is smart. Climatology really makes 100 hard this time of year, even at the hot spots like LaGuardia and Newark. Average temperatures are already on the way down and by the end of August will be down some 3-4 degrees.

But who would've thought we could reach the mid 90s in early October last year?

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2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

But who would've thought we could reach the mid 90s in early October last year?

climo is dead these days

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18 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I see a METS FAN is watching a Braves fan.  On climo...  it's biased down.  I did go to ACIS and check EWR  last 100. Sept 3, 1993. This might need to be rechecked.  Walt

You meant latest 100, right?

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850's weren't even above 20c in sept 1993. ewr couldn't break 100 with higher 850's this july

090318.png

 

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10 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

It was an interesting first week of Oct here in 2019...

10/2/19: High of 87 

10/5/19: First Frost of the Season 

Lets see what we can do to move that first frost out to early or even mid November. Thanx. ;)

Well, I did get wet but just barely. All of the local stations are down but I don't think it was any more than .1". I guess that keeping the soil in the garden beds moist for days is all I can ask for, the cool temps are a bonus.

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off the top of my head there were two summers that had its hottest temprature of the summer on 9/22...1895 hit 97 and 1914 hit 95...1970 tied its hottest day on 9/22 with a 94...

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Newark max temps from treaded extremes...

http://threadex.rcc-acis.org/

9/1 98 in 2010 96 in 1953 95 in 1980+
9/2 105 in 1953 98 in 1980 97 in 1944
9/3 100 in 1993 95 in 2018 95 in 2015
9/4 95 in 2018 95 in 1973 95 in 1964
9/5 94 in 1985 94 in 1961 92 in 1973
9/6 98 in 2018 97 in 1983 95 in 2014
9/7 95 in 2015 93 in 2010 92 in 1945
9/8 98 in 2015 94 in 1939 93 in 2010+
9/9 94 in 1964 93 in 2016 92 in 1971+
9/10 98 in 1983 97 in 1989 95 in 1931
9/11 99 in 1983 96 in 2013 96 in 1964+
9/12 95 in 1961 93 in 2005 90 in 1952+
9/13 94 in 2005 94 in 1952 93 in 1957+
9/14 94 in 2016 92 in 2008 92 in 1931
9/15 94 in 1993 91 in 1942 89 in 1947
9/16 95 in 1991 92 in 1970 91 in 1958+
9/17 95 in 1991 93 in 1972 91 in 1994
9/18 90 in 1992 90 in 1948 89 in 1965
9/19 93 in 1983 89 in 1946 88 in 2005+
9/20 92 in 1983 88 in 1946 87 in 1985
9/21 90 in 1940 88 in 1998 88 in 1980
9/22 94 in 1970 93 in 1931 92 in 1980
9/23 94 in 1970 93 in 2019 93 in 1959
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18 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Just checked LGA  was 95 on Sep 3, 1993. So until someone says I have it wrong, I'll go w EWR last 100 on Sep 3. Probably moot to discuss much more than what we have, except we all know...it's warmer these recent decades. 

That is Newark’s latest 100 degree reading.

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Clearing working through NW/N-NJ and should see sun in most places in the next hour or by 3.

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not for nothing but given the area and time of day i am really hoping there's more photos or video of that tornado.  that is absolutely incredible, and really came out of complete nowhere.  you can't ever make any assumptions about weather, the only certainties are that next year will be hotter and thunderstorms in Jersey are definitely not making it to Suffolk.

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1 hour ago, Euripides said:

Pic from Red Bank sent from my sister.

Not her picture but sent from a friend who is a Police officer in Red bank

 

158220.jpeg

 

I am not sure that`s Red Bank. 

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18 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

I am not sure that`s Red Bank. 

Could the pic be from Rumson looking toward Red Bank?

I wish my sister had taken the pic as yes I know when you get a pic from someone else the validity goes down.

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1 hour ago, Euripides said:

Going to need to update Red Bank for a Tornado.

See picture a few posts above......

saw them... it may be that PHI-EM are doing storm survey right now.  You'll probably know sooner than I, but I doubt if anything will officially pot on this for a little while, pending data assessment. If they do go with a TOR..will update the graphic when I get a chance. Thanks and Later, Walt

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26 minutes ago, Euripides said:

Could the pic be from Rumson looking toward Red Bank?

I wish my sister had taken the pic as yes I know when you get a pic from someone else the validity goes down.

I'm seeing lots of tree damage but no video or pics of the tornado/funnel itself 

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