IrishRob17 Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, wdrag said: Is tropical tidbits up and running? If so, will delete this post. Just need a check. Seems to be a slow load for me. It’s working as slow as it normally is for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 8/15 EWR: 85 JFK: 85 LGA: 85 TEB: 85 NYC: 84 New Brnswck: 84 TTN: 83 PHL: 82 BLM: 81 ISP: 81 ACY: 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 74 predicted high for me tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 Whether the heavier rain tracks north once developing or not, this may be a typical faster than guidance storm and we clear out for a bit of the later afternoon. Already saw the clouds deck clear into OH before the visible went into IR mode. Following the trend Thu below guidance/ Fri warmer / today more cloudy / perhaps tomorrow later PM highs if we get into the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 9 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: Thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 Good Sunday morning all, Looking beyond the topic'd developing nor'easter for our I84 area southeastward, SPC continues D2 marginal risk for severe for our area. No topic til late afternoon since we're on-going with one event and small timing issues are developing for later Monday-Monday night. I am now having to think two bands of scattered gusty showers-thunderstorms...one mid Monday afternoon and the other around midnight to 3 am Tuesday. The afternoon would probably be more likely to produce a few severe, but I think the one overnight might surprise as it has quite a bit of KI/cooling 500MB temps and leftover CAPE to work with, along with a pretty decent 500mb jet/vort max coming through. The 22nd-24th (yesterdays's 23rd), looks interesting for a couple bands of heavy showers/thunderstorms. 649A/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 78degs., or 2.5degs. AN. Month to date is +2.7[78.7]. Should be about +2.7[78.4] by the 24th. 69*!!!(83%RH) here at 6am and 7am, overcast, drizzle. All models are about 0.5in. rain the next 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 The NWS did an extensive post about the leaf burn on the south sides of the trees following Isaias. We at the office have noticed an interesting phenomenon in the wake of Tropical Storm Isaias here on Long Island... A lot of the south side of exposed vegetation is withering while the north side of the same vegetation seems fine. This picture is taken by one of our meteorologists on the south shore of Long Island today (August 15th, 2020), about 11 days after Tropical Storm Isaias swept through the area. The picture is taken looking to the north. You can very clearly see that much of the south side of the vegetation looks as if it has progressed into late autumn with much of it turning brown. However, the north side of the trees and the bushes are still green! How and why is this happening?? We believe that the cause of this weird occurrence has to do with the blowing of ocean spray (and thus sea salt) onto the south side of exposed vegetation by strong winds. Tropical Storm Isaias had strong winds associated with it on Long Island, but not much rainfall. Strong southerly winds (with gusts up to and exceeding 70 mph) off of the ocean picked up sea salt off the ocean surface and battered the south sides of just about everything. With little to no rain to wash the salt off of trees and bushes in the wake of these strong winds, the south sides of the vegetation that experienced the brunt of the winds (and thus most exposure to the sea salt) seems to have begun to wither and wilt. Additionally, much of Long Island is currently in a moderate drought with Islip, NY (KISP) a little more than 6" of precipitation below average for the calendar year so far. This may at least partially enhance these withering effects. There is anecdotal evidence of this phenomenon occurring from tropical events in the past, like Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and the "Long Island Express" Hurricane in 1938, though both of these prior events occurred later in the year than Tropical Storm Isaias. With all that being said, have you noticed this weird occurrence in your area? We at the office would be very interested to hear (and see) from you if you've noticed this happening near you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 Morning thoughts... At 8 am, moderate rainfall was moving through area that included parts of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Another smaller area of moderate rainfall was moving through parts of the Hudson Valley. In New York City, light rain was falling with a temperature of 67 degrees. A moderate to heavy rainfall remains likely parts of the Middle Atlantic region. Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey could be in line for 1”-2” rain with locally higher amounts. Parts of Long Island could see 0.50”-1.00” rain. New York City will likely see less than 0.50”. Out west, intense heat will again sear parts of California, Arizona and Nevada. Death Valley is poised to challenge the August heat record. Yesterday’s high temperature there was 126 degrees, which beat the daily record of 124 degrees from 2002. Yesterday’s high temperature was just below the monthly record of 127 degrees, which was set on August 12, 1933 and tied on August 1, 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 With all the clouds and rain, White Plains has a chance to break its record 75° high temperature streak. It’s currently tied for 1st place with 2006 at 60 days. But it looks like the record 60° minimum streak will continue. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 75 for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 60 2020-08-15 - 60 2006-08-24 2 57 1966-08-09 3 55 2016-09-02 - 55 2010-08-11 4 52 2015-09-13 5 51 2003-08-30 Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 60 for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 57 2020-08-15 2 53 2012-08-18 3 51 2008-08-15 - 51 1970-08-19 4 49 2016-08-21 5 45 1988-08-18 6 44 2019-08-07 - 44 2018-08-22 - 44 2005-08-17 7 42 2013-08-03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 Light rain and 68 (!) degrees. Grown unaccustomed to anything not hot b/c it feels very chilly to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 67 and 0.17 of rain so far. Coolest day overall since Fay (7/10) likely daytime highs below 70? Sun is about 100 miles west into C- PA. Rockies heat dome locked and loaded the next 7 - 10 days. Overall near to slightly above normal around these parts once past today for this coming week 8/17 - 8/21 with lots of low - mid 80s. Storms possible Mon and Wed PM but the week looks good overall. Pending on any storms next weekend (8/22 - 23) offers the next opportunity to reach 90, especially in the warmer spots before trough pushes into the east. Beyond next weekend and into the final week of August 8/24, Rockies ridge nudging into the plains and piece of that heat is heading east should allow for much warmer close to the month with chance of 90s and perhaps a piece of the stronger heat gets here for a 2 day window. Beyond there have to watch for Plains ridge to establish and WAR pushing west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The NWS did an extensive post about the leaf burn on the south sides of the trees following Isaias. We at the office have noticed an interesting phenomenon in the wake of Tropical Storm Isaias here on Long Island... A lot of the south side of exposed vegetation is withering while the north side of the same vegetation seems fine. This picture is taken by one of our meteorologists on the south shore of Long Island today (August 15th, 2020), about 11 days after Tropical Storm Isaias swept through the area. The picture is taken looking to the north. You can very clearly see that much of the south side of the vegetation looks as if it has progressed into late autumn with much of it turning brown. However, the north side of the trees and the bushes are still green! How and why is this happening?? We believe that the cause of this weird occurrence has to do with the blowing of ocean spray (and thus sea salt) onto the south side of exposed vegetation by strong winds. Tropical Storm Isaias had strong winds associated with it on Long Island, but not much rainfall. Strong southerly winds (with gusts up to and exceeding 70 mph) off of the ocean picked up sea salt off the ocean surface and battered the south sides of just about everything. With little to no rain to wash the salt off of trees and bushes in the wake of these strong winds, the south sides of the vegetation that experienced the brunt of the winds (and thus most exposure to the sea salt) seems to have begun to wither and wilt. Additionally, much of Long Island is currently in a moderate drought with Islip, NY (KISP) a little more than 6" of precipitation below average for the calendar year so far. This may at least partially enhance these withering effects. There is anecdotal evidence of this phenomenon occurring from tropical events in the past, like Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and the "Long Island Express" Hurricane in 1938, though both of these prior events occurred later in the year than Tropical Storm Isaias. With all that being said, have you noticed this weird occurrence in your area? We at the office would be very interested to hear (and see) from you if you've noticed this happening near you! I was in guilford ct the last few days, right on the sound, and noticed the same phenomena. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 At 12 pm, the temperature at LaGuardia Airport was 69°. That ended LaGuardia's record-breaking 44-day streak (July 3 through August 15) during which the temperature remained at or above 70°. The previous record was 34 days, which was set July 8 through August 10, 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: At 12 pm, the temperature at LaGuardia Airport was 69°. That ended LaGuardia's record-breaking 44-day streak (July 3 through August 15) during which the temperature remained at or above 70°. The previous record was 34 days, which was set July 8 through August 10, 2006. This will be probably be broken again in the next 5 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: This will be probably be broken again in the next 5 years I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: At 12 pm, the temperature at LaGuardia Airport was 69°. That ended LaGuardia's record-breaking 44-day streak (July 3 through August 15) during which the temperature remained at or above 70°. The previous record was 34 days, which was set July 8 through August 10, 2006. MPO is the higher elevation interior version of the streak. Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 55 for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 49 2020-08-15 2 32 1938-08-18 - 32 1919-06-27 3 31 2013-07-23 4 24 2004-08-04 - 24 1947-08-31 5 23 1917-08-03 - 23 1916-07-28 Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 44 2020-08-15 2 34 2006-08-10 3 32 1980-08-15 4 29 2018-08-19 5 28 2010-07-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 16, 2020 Author Share Posted August 16, 2020 Picked up 0.23" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 Los Gemelos or the Bobbsey Twins? The GFS-Para, which sniffed out Isiais early has something near CH again, about this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 68F, rain, stiff east/northeast wind off the water for past few days in Wading River Feels like fall. Love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 Four photos of the leaf burn following Tropical Storm Isiais (Larchmont, NY): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 Looks like midnight temp of 71° will be the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 NYC forum imo, still looks good for isolated severe 4P-10P Monday, with a secondary band of gusty showers-iso thunder around midnight-3AM Tue. No topic. SPC D2 no longer has marginal risk. So they are seeing something I'm not as CAPE, 500 MB wind, KI, time of day in a low 80s max temp environment look decent to me for a marginal risk. 509P/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 16, 2020 Share Posted August 16, 2020 .53 in Syosset & .43 in Muttontown, light drizzle/mist now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 Parts of the region experienced a soaking rainfall today with temperatures topping out mainly in the lower 70s. At New York City, the high temperature was 72°. The last time August had a maximum temperature of 72° or below was August 19, 2018 when the temperature also reached 72°. Rainfall amounts included: Baltimore: 1.06" Islip: 0.58" New York City: 0.21" Newark: 0.14" Philadelphia: 0.63" Poughkeepsie: 0.12" Washington, DC: 1.03" Wilmington, DE: 1.04" Out west, extreme heat again prevailed in the Southwest. Select high temperatures included: Bishop, CA: 108° (old record: 106°, 1994) Death Valley, CA: 128° (old record: 124°, 1994 and 2002) ***New August Record*** Everett, WA: 99° (old record: 87°, 2010 and 2012) ***New August Record*** Flagstaff: 93° (old record: 89°, 1939) ***Tied August Record*** Kingman, AZ: 109° Lake Havasu City, AZ: 117° Las Vegas: 113° (tied record set in 1939) Lemoore, CA: 120° (old record: 109°, 1967) ***New All-Time Record*** Mesa, AZ: 113° (old record: 108°, 2019) Modesto, CA: 111° (old record: 104, 1992, 2015 and 2019) ***New August Record*** Needles, CA: 117° Palm Springs, CA: 114° Phoenix: 115° (old record: 113°, 1992 and 2013) Sacramento: 112° (old record: 106°, 1992 and 2015) ***New August Record*** Seattle: 97° Stockton, CA: 113° (old record: 106°, 1983) ***New August Record*** Tucson: 110° (old record: 108° 1992 and 2013) Yuma, AZ: 113° Death Valley reached 125° or above for the second consecutive day. The last time that happened in August was August 9-10, 2012. Final figures should be available for Death Valley and Lake Havasu City tomorrow. More intense heat is likely in that region through midweek. Phoenix has an implied 93% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature of 96.2° - 96.6°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. Today was also Phoenix's 40th day on which the temperature reached 110° or above. The old record was 33 days, which was set in 2011. Following the storm, readings will warm up tomorrow and Tuesday. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around August 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions will likely develop. The SOI was +5.46. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.449. On August 15, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.363 (RMM). The August 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.836. The MJO's recent passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above has been uncommon during the first half of August. During the 1981-2019 period only 1983 and 2019 saw the MJO move through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the first half of August. August 1983 had the longest such stretch. Both cases saw the second half of August average generally warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Both cases also featured a warmer than normal September. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.0°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 4 hours ago, JoshSnow said: Today was the most depressing weather day this summer! I can’t take this cool air it’s like October outside. It should be hot and humid it’s only 69 degrees with light rain! I can’t wait until next summer this summer is about done! Thanks Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 Feels like Autumn outside 71 here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 81.5degs , or 6.5degs. AN Month to date is +2.2[78.2]. Should be about +2.9[79.3] by the 25th. 67*!!!(83%RH), m clear-haze here at 6am. 66* at 6:30am. 70*(80%RH) by 9am. Got to 75* by 4pm, fell back, but again it is 75* at 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 17, 2020 Share Posted August 17, 2020 White Plains finally ended their record streak of 60° or warmer days. White Plains PTCLDY 59 57 93 NW6 Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 60 for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 58 2020-08-16 2 53 2012-08-18 3 51 2008-08-15 - 51 1970-08-19 4 49 2016-08-21 5 45 1988-08-18 6 44 2019-08-07 - 44 2018-08-22 - 44 2005-08-17 7 42 2013-08-03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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