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Rtd208

August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Normally I would learn towards the Euro but the GFS has done better in some instances. The 06z NAM is now much wetter for Sunday. Tough forecast and hopefully this will be resolved over the next 24 hours. 

I don't like that the GEFS is trending steadily south. Implies heavy rain Mason-Dixon line with northern fringes up here.  In summer, without deep cyclonic inflow, the heaviest tends to be be near the warm front-greatest instability.  This should resolve to greater consensus by the 00z/15 cycle.  Rather dry Uk is bothersome as well. 

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27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not seeing a lot of 90F potential moving forward. Maybe very end of the month and early September?

seems like the worst of the heat in actual #'s might be behind us....

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29 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I don't like that the GEFS is trending steadily south. Implies heavy rain Mason-Dixon line with northern fringes up here.  In summer, without deep cyclonic inflow, the heaviest tends to be be near the warm front-greatest instability.  This should resolve to greater consensus by the 00z/15 cycle.  Rather dry Uk is bothersome as well. 

I agree, I did notice the GFS slowly sinking south over the last few runs. The 06z NAM is probably still a bit out of its most accurate range and was the first run to show a wetter more north solution so its probably prudent to take with a grain of salt at this point.

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30 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I agree, I did notice the GFS slowly sinking south over the last few runs. The 06z NAM is probably still a bit out of its most accurate range and was the first run to show a wetter more north solution so its probably prudent to take with a grain of salt at this point.

NAM went from 2 inches of rain to nothing in one run

namconus_apcpn_neus_25.png

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11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm fine with that but I know some people need the rain

...you better believe it!..moderate drought here on ELI.(.most of suffolk

county actually.)

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21 minutes ago, doncat said:

What are some of your station totals since 6/1 ?

8.74” here.

Could be much worse, May and June were almost bone dry, July was very dry but it was bookended by enough rainfall to actually finish above normal, still not enough to make a dent in the drought, however.

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not seeing a lot of 90F potential moving forward. Maybe very end of the month and early September?

Never say never with weather but could be.  That strong heat building in the west would challenge past highs if/when it shifts east towards the end of the month.  These period of persistent onshore flows were followed by period of heat this summer.

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41 minutes ago, tim said:

...you better believe it!..moderate drought here on ELI.(.most of suffolk

county actually.)

All the high pressure over New England has kept the heaviest rains further to the west.

Time Series Summary for WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Precipitation Jun 1 to Aug 13
Missing Count
2020-08-13 4.35 3

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Precipitation Jun 1 to Aug 13
Missing Count
2020-08-13 16.30 0


 

 

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4 hours ago, wdrag said:

I don't like that the GEFS is trending steadily south. Implies heavy rain Mason-Dixon line with northern fringes up here.  In summer, without deep cyclonic inflow, the heaviest tends to be be near the warm front-greatest instability.  This should resolve to greater consensus by the 00z/15 cycle.  Rather dry Uk is bothersome as well. 

Right on cue, the GFS continues to look drier for Sunday.

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

onshore flow with water temps 75-80 off NJ so would think so.   (I'll be at the shore so works for me!)

50 dew points next week. That should really feel nice 

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24 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Right on cue, the GFS continues to look drier for Sunday.

12z/14 Friday cycle: Whew... glad it's not winter.  Have reviewed 12z GEFS/EPS/NAEFS, 09z SREF, 12z UK/GGEM/NAM12 and 3K. Despite the much drier 12z GFS op, the 12z GEFS continues to hammer 1" ne across much of our forum area, while the EPS is less than 1/4".  NAEFS (biased by the GEFS members) is definitely saying we're in the mix for a nasty dreary wet summer day but with GREAT variability in qpf amounts.  I do not like that the GGEM and UK are both edgy dry here.  Therefore,  don't know what to say except that I expect a period of rain for the forum area, mainly I95 corridor southeastward.  Amounts ?able but not enough for a topic (I'd be looking for 3-4" QPF somewhere here in the forum area, for a summer non - snow topic).  Will reevaluate early Saturday.

Monday evening:  unsure whether what happens Sunday nullifies late Monday,  but if the EC is correct and we just receive a quick grazing of light amounts Sunday I95 southeastward,  then we need to think potential for late season severe late Monday (EC has plenty of KI along the front, enough CAPE and wind aloft-good timing for now and cold enough 500mb to suggest iso hail).  UK seems to like the convective possibilities as well.  

It's early and am only highlighting the possibilities of these two days. We should all look this over again tomorrow.  May be offline for a while. 309P/14

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5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

12z/14 Friday cycle: Whew... glad it's not winter.  Have reviewed 12z GEFS/EPS/NAEFS, 09z SREF, 12z UK/GGEM/NAM12 and 3K. Despite the much drier 12z GFS op, the 12z GEFS continues to hammer 1" ne across much of our forum area, while the EPS is less than 1/4".  NAEFS (biased by the GEFS members) is definitely saying we're in the mix for a nasty dreary wet summer day but with GREAT variability in qpf amounts.  I do not like that the GGEM and UK are both edgy dry here.  Therefore,  don't know what to say except that I expect a period of rain for the forum area, mainly I95 corridor southeastward.  Amounts ?able but not enough for a topic (I'd be looking for 3-4" QPF somewhere here in the forum area, for a summer non - snow topic).  Will reevaluate early Saturday.

Monday evening:  unsure whether what happens Sunday nullifies late Monday,  but if the EC is correct and we just receive a quick grazing of light amounts Sunday I95 southeastward,  then we need to think potential for late season severe late Monday (EC has plenty of KI along the front, enough CAPE and wind aloft-good timing for now and cold enough 500mb to suggest iso hail).  UK seems to like the convective possibilities as well.  

It's early and am only highlighting the possibilities of these two days. We should all look this over again tomorrow.  May be offline for a while. 309P/14

Well if this winter is anything like the last couple the only thing we will be tracking is rain and warm temps :P. I agree with your concern on "edgy dry" here, small shifts can make a big difference in QPF amounts. 

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41 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Well if this winter is anything like the last couple the only thing we will be tracking is rain and warm temps :P. I agree with your concern on "edgy dry" here, small shifts can make a big difference in QPF amounts. 

One thing I should have mentioned: IF this were a snow situation,  no matter the edgy, there is/was too much  information of concern within the ensembles to not have this a winter topic...but it's summer and most everyone can live with less than1 inch of rain as a non topic, provided the track remains south as per the 12z/14 modeling. 

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Thought some might like to see this new product.  Has many different ways to break this down geographically, including by county. Have just presented the overall OKX forecast area for the past 20 years of drought detail.  The dark red is D4... pretty serious but not for long and percentage wise (vertical), not too much of the area. Never a D5 in the OKX area the past 20 years. The cursor was set for a day in 2015 (blue vertical). From our NWS-NOA drought monitor group.

Can now search by NWS Weather Forecast Offices by the US Drought Manager Time Series tool.
This a great tool to provide information on how frequent drought occurs by percent of area in your county warning area. It can be found under "Area Type". You can even toggle on or off varying extremes of drought.

Screen Shot 2020-08-14 at 4.15.06 PM.png

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17 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

It’s dead Jim!

 

maybe a couple of more days but it’s about to get cooler now.

I'd agree-daylight shortening quickly now, gets harder as you enter late August and with cooler weather this week that takes us to 8/22 and beyond before any return to heat.

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No one would ever say “it’s over” if it were snow in February right after a top 5 cold/snowy January. I know some are itching for fall but let’s be realistic.

90/72 split today, dews in the 60’s feel so dry after endless 70’s and the odd 80+ thrown in the mix.

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Naming ever little S H    T on the block.       TS KYLE forms and leaves.       Sinking air around it is why we cleared up today.      What a joke------the ACE for the year is about 21 and it has taken 11storms to get that much!

I reached 89* here this PM.

https://www.11alive.com/article/weather/tropical-depression-11-forms-likely-to-become-ts-josephine/85-5f8bc9c2-7595-4dc5-b695-9b96aee9515b

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3 hours ago, Cfa said:

No one would ever say “it’s over” if it were snow in February right after a top 5 cold/snowy January. I know some are itching for fall but let’s be realistic.

90/72 split today, dews in the 60’s feel so dry after endless 70’s and the odd 80+ thrown in the mix.

It’s like they forgot how hot our past few Septembers and October’s have been. Working in the field on ticks I can tell you we can get real heat and humidity well into the fall. 

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