August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, lee59 said:

How did you find Farmingdale weather stats?

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[LibertyBell]

On 8/12/2020 at 9:17 AM, uncle W said:

where in the Poconos?...My son has a house in Wild Acres in Dingmans Ferry...I've been going there for 48 years...

It's in Bear Creek, about halfway between Allentown and Mt Pocono.  I wrote up a report about what I saw:

I noticed something strange with this shower that I hadn't noticed in others. Most of the time, I watch meteor showers at a sea level location on Long Island. But this time, I decided to do it at a less light polluted place, in the Poconos Mtns, about 2,000 ft above sea level. I didn't see a lot of meteors, but the ones I did see were very bright, as bright as Venus or even a little brighter. I saw about 10 of these per hour the night before the peak and the night of the peak. Here is what was really unusual- they seemed really low, maybe only a couple of hundred feet above the trees (?) That is just an estimate. But two of them I know for sure really seemed like they were only a little above the roof of my house.....and one of them changed color from golden to green to orange to red and I heard a sound at the end of the flash- it sounded like- as best I can describe it- like the sound of a pebble hitting a hard surface?

I have never seen or heard of anything like this before!

Meanwhile, in the background sky, just at the limit of visibility there was a near constant flashing and a sensation of the sky moving (?)- I suspect this was the vast majority of meteors, just at the limit of naked eye visibility? Whatever it was it was below the brightness of the Milky Way, which I can clearly see from this location (limiting magnitude about 6.5)

[nycwinter]

i have had enough of this humid weather..enough is enough..

[bluewave]

Less warm will be the new cool for us as the heat ridge shifts out to the Western US. 

 

[doncat]

Only made it to 76° here today after this mornings heavy rain, and clouds with an occasional spritz this afternoon.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, doncat said:

Only made it to 76° here today after this mornings heavy rain, and clouds with an occasional spritz this afternoon.

the humidity is unbearable, this area feels like a tropical rain forest, let alone the "subtropical" designation we now have.

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i have had enough of this humid weather..enough is enough..

Yeah trust me it felt like traversing across more than two climate zones on the drive from the Poconos to Long Island.  The change was very noticeable when I entered NJ.  It felt like someone mugged me.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Less warm will be the new cool for us as the heat ridge shifts out to the Western US. 

 

we need a way to relocate our humidity to the west where they are fighting fires.  They need humid air, we dont.

 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

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[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah trust me it felt like traversing across more than two climate zones on the drive from the Poconos to Long Island.  The change was very noticeable when I entered NJ.  It felt like someone mugged me.

 

Looks like MPO may finally end their record 55 or warmer minimum temperature streak.  LGA could also break their 70° minimum streak. 
 

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 55 
for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
Period of record: 1901-09-12 to 2020-08-12
1	46	2020-08-12
2	32	1938-08-18
-	32	1919-06-27
4	31	2013-07-23
5	24	2004-08-04
-	24	1947-08-31
7	23	1917-08-03
-	23	1916-07-28
9	22	2018-08-22
-	22	2009-08-30

 

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 
for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
Period of record: 1939-10-07 to 2020-08-12
1	41	2020-08-12
2	34	2006-08-10
3	32	1980-08-15
4	29	2018-08-19
5	28	2010-07-30
6	24	1999-08-08
-	24	1995-08-05
8	23	1988-08-18
9	22	2016-08-02
-	22	2012-07-19

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like MPO may finally end their record 55 or warmer minimum temperature streak.  LGA could also break their 70° minimum streak. 
 

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 55 
for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
Period of record: 1901-09-12 to 2020-08-12
1	46	2020-08-12
2	32	1938-08-18
-	32	1919-06-27
4	31	2013-07-23
5	24	2004-08-04
-	24	1947-08-31
7	23	1917-08-03
-	23	1916-07-28
9	22	2018-08-22
-	22	2009-08-30

 

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 
for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
Period of record: 1939-10-07 to 2020-08-12
1	41	2020-08-12
2	34	2006-08-10
3	32	1980-08-15
4	29	2018-08-19
5	28	2010-07-30
6	24	1999-08-08
-	24	1995-08-05
8	23	1988-08-18
9	22	2016-08-02
-	22	2012-07-19

wow both streaks of 40+ days!  It feels like just yesterday it was snowing in May lol.  I also remember we had some really cool nights in June, I guess that was just before this streak started?

 

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow both streaks of 40+ days!  It feels like just yesterday it was snowing in May lol.  I also remember we had some really cool nights in June, I guess that was just before this streak started?

 

It started on 6-28. MPO beat the previous warmest low temperature record for the period by 5 degrees.

 

Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Jun 28 to Aug 12	Missing Count
1	2020-08-12	55	0
2	2019-08-12	50	0
-	2008-08-12	50	0
-	1955-08-12	50	2

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Less warm will be the new cool for us as the heat ridge shifts out to the Western US. 

 

less warmth is a good way to describe the coming cool down...gone are the days when July and August used to get heat relief with temperatures in the 50's in NYC...now its mid to low 60's...even in years when temperatures hit 100 or better there was a cool down into the 50's...

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It started on 6-28. MPO beat the previous warmest low temperature record for the period by 5 degrees.

 

Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Jun 28 to Aug 12	Missing Count
1	2020-08-12	55	0
2	2019-08-12	50	0
-	2008-08-12	50	0
-	1955-08-12	50	2

and beat the next longest streak by almost 50%!

 

[LibertyBell]

44 minutes ago, uncle W said:

less warmth is a good way to describe the coming cool down...gone are the days when July and August used to get heat relief with temperatures in the 50's in NYC...now its mid to low 60's...even in years when temperatures hit 100 or better there was a cool down into the 50's...

The first year I started watching the Perseid meteor shower was 1986 and the ironic thing was that was the most comfortable weather I remember having to watch it- in the last 35 or so years it has never been as cool with the skies so clear....you can double check this Uncle, I think the temps were either in the low 50s or the upper 40s with crystal clear skies through the period.....look up the lows from Aug 11 to Aug 14, that's when I watched them.

[RedSky]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's in Bear Creek, about halfway between Allentown and Mt Pocono.  I wrote up a report about what I saw:

I noticed something strange with this shower that I hadn't noticed in others. Most of the time, I watch meteor showers at a sea level location on Long Island. But this time, I decided to do it at a less light polluted place, in the Poconos Mtns, about 2,000 ft above sea level. I didn't see a lot of meteors, but the ones I did see were very bright, as bright as Venus or even a little brighter. I saw about 10 of these per hour the night before the peak and the night of the peak. Here is what was really unusual- they seemed really low, maybe only a couple of hundred feet above the trees (?) That is just an estimate. But two of them I know for sure really seemed like they were only a little above the roof of my house.....and one of them changed color from golden to green to orange to red and I heard a sound at the end of the flash- it sounded like- as best I can describe it- like the sound of a pebble hitting a hard surface?

I have never seen or heard of anything like this before!

Meanwhile, in the background sky, just at the limit of visibility there was a near constant flashing and a sensation of the sky moving (?)- I suspect this was the vast majority of meteors, just at the limit of naked eye visibility? Whatever it was it was below the brightness of the Milky Way, which I can clearly see from this location (limiting magnitude about 6.5)

Sometimes when they hit the firmament dome they ping off it lol

 

[donsutherland1]

With today's rainfall, New York City has received 26.28" precipitation this year. That is 4.50" below normal. Based on the 1971-2019 data, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will receive 40" or more precipitation this year. However, there is just an implied 23% probability that it will receive at least 50" precipitation.

The high temperature will rise into the lower to middle 80s tomorrow and then the upper 70s and lower 80s during the coming weekend.

Nevertheless, the current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around August 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions will likely develop.

The SOI was -5.95.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.332.

On August 12, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.328 (RMM). The August 11-adjusted amplitude was 0.421.

Some of the guidance suggests that the MJO could be in Phase 8 in late August. The convergence of the MJO's passage through phase 8 and revived tropical cyclone activity could suggest the possibility of an East Coast threat during the August 20-September 10 period. Phases 8-1-2 have coincided with a cluster of East Coast landfalls. Belle (1976) and Gloria (1985) made landfall when the MJO was in Phase 8 at a low amplitude. Sandy (2012) and Fay (2020) made landfall when the MJO was in Phase 2.

The MJO's recent passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above has been uncommon during the first half of August. During the 1981-2019 period only 1983 and 2019 saw the MJO move through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the first half of August. August 1983 had the longest such stretch. Both cases saw the second half of August average generally warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Both cases also featured a warmer than normal September.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.0°.

 

[SACRUS]

8/13

ACY: 86
LGA: 82
EWR: 82
BLM: 81
ISP: 81
PHL: 81
JFK: 80
TEB: 80
New Brnswck: 80
TTN: 79
NYC: 79

[SACRUS]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Less warm will be the new cool for us as the heat ridge shifts out to the Western US. 

 

Wait till that ridge shifts east into the plains with the WAR lingering by the last week of August.  Think we havent seen the last of the stronger or maybe even the strongest heat yet.

[LibertyBell]

54 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

With today's rainfall, New York City has received 26.28" precipitation this year. That is 4.50" below normal. Based on the 1971-2019 data, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will receive 40" or more precipitation this year. However, there is just an implied 23% probability that it will receive at least 50" precipitation.

The high temperature will rise into the lower to middle 80s tomorrow and then the upper 70s and lower 80s during the coming weekend.

Nevertheless, the current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around August 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions will likely develop.

The SOI was -5.95.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.332.

On August 12, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.328 (RMM). The August 11-adjusted amplitude was 0.421.

Some of the guidance suggests that the MJO could be in Phase 8 in late August. The convergence of the MJO's passage through phase 8 and revived tropical cyclone activity could suggest the possibility of an East Coast threat during the August 20-September 10 period. Phases 8-1-2 have coincided with a cluster of East Coast landfalls. Belle (1976) and Gloria (1985) made landfall when the MJO was in Phase 8 at a low amplitude. Sandy (2012) and Fay (2020) made landfall when the MJO was in Phase 2.

The MJO's recent passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above has been uncommon during the first half of August. During the 1981-2019 period only 1983 and 2019 saw the MJO move through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the first half of August. August 1983 had the longest such stretch. Both cases saw the second half of August average generally warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Both cases also featured a warmer than normal September.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.0°.

 

Good to see we wont get 50" of rain.  The average rainfall should be between 40-45 inches, and I say "should" because that's what it was for most of NYC's recorded history before this dreaded wet pattern began a decade ago.

 

[Cfa]

84/74 split today, 0.03” of rainfall.

Today started out alright, but the second half was really nasty and drizzly.

[Will - Rutgers]

the low over North Carolina is now an NHC lemon for subtropical development.  it doesn't remotely look to affect us as a tropical event, but its potential development is yet another wrench in the gear of the short- and mid-term forecasting.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.82" of rain for the day yesterday.

Current temp 73/DP 71/RH 93%

[JerseyWx]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like MPO may finally end their record 55 or warmer minimum temperature streak.  LGA could also break their 70° minimum streak. 

I'm very impressed by that LGA record.  The trend continues of very warm minimums and humid weather.

[wdrag]

Regarding Sunday the 16th:  UK and EC model basically very little rain.  The Ensembles from the wet 1"+ GFS, EC (less than 1/4") and NAEFS (showing big variability) have been added with also the WPC operational mesh of all the guidance. No topic for a big rainer, at least not yet.  GFS has been shifting southward quite a bit the past several cycles (op and ensembles). 605A/14

[Rtd208]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Regarding Sunday the 16th:  UK and EC model basically very little rain.  The Ensembles from the wet 1"+ GFS, EC (less than 1/4") and NAEFS (showing big variability) have been added with also the WPC operational mesh of all the guidance. No topic for a big rainer, at least not yet.  GFS has been shifting southward quite a bit the past several cycles (op and ensembles). 605A/14

Normally I would learn towards the Euro but the GFS has done better in some instances. The 06z NAM is now much wetter for Sunday. Tough forecast and hopefully this will be resolved over the next 24 hours. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 79degs., or 3.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.8[78.8].        Should be about  +3.0[78.9] by the 22nd.

Almost no rain on any model now thru Wed.     Stays south?

75*(90%RH) here at 6am, thin overcast.          83*(68%RH) by 11am, warming up and drying out.        86*(59%RH) by 3:30pm.     87*(55%RH) at 4pm.       89*(52%RH) at 5pm.

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, uncle W said:

less warmth is a good way to describe the coming cool down...gone are the days when July and August used to get heat relief with temperatures in the 50's in NYC...now its mid to low 60's...even in years when temperatures hit 100 or better there was a cool down into the 50's...

Just enough of the WAR has been holding on to keep the coolest temperatures to our west. I can also remember when NYC would regularly drop into the 50s at some point behind a cold front in August. Now we just have to settle for lows in the 60s and highs below 90 for our less warm August periods. 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
2020	66	18
2019	61	0
2018	65	0
2017	60	0
2016	61	0
2015	63	0
2014	61	0
2013	59	0

 

 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 79degs., or 3.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.8[78.8].        Should be about  +3.0[78.9] by the 22nd.

Almost no rain on any model now thru Wed.     Stays south?

75*(90%RH) here at 6am, thin overcast.

NAM is wet for Sunday, but with the Euro well south, I'd buy into that solution right now....

[SACRUS]

 

80 / 72 here.  Sun breaking through.  Today looks to feature more sunshine than Thu and allow temps into the low/mid 80s.  Saturday strong onshore flow should allow for dry and sunny and low to mid 80s.  Sunday more clouds and storms which linger into the start of the work week.  Tue looks to be the warmest (driest day) next week  in mid perhaps upper 80s.  Wed -  Fri more  low perhaps mid 80s pending on any storms developing with associated clouds. Next weekend (8/22 - 8/23) looks much warmer at this stage. 

 

Rockies ridge is shifting into the Plains by the week of the 24th and pushing the stronger heat into the Plains / Midwest and east towards the last week of the month.  Some of that very strong heat may arrive for a 2 day period by months end.  WAR lingering and need to watch to expansion west and any hook with the Plains Ridge.