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August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Los Gemelos or the Bobbsey Twins?

The GFS-Para, which sniffed out Isiais early has something near CH again, about this time.

gem_z850_vort_us_39.png

 

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Today was the most depressing weather day this summer! I can’t take this cool air it’s like October outside. It should be hot and humid it’s only 69 degrees with light rain! I can’t wait until next summer this summer is about done!

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NYC forum imo, still looks good for isolated severe 4P-10P Monday, with a secondary band of gusty showers-iso thunder around midnight-3AM Tue. No topic.  SPC D2 no longer has marginal risk. So they are seeing something I'm not as CAPE, 500 MB wind,  KI, time of day in a low 80s max temp environment look decent to me for a marginal risk.    509P/16

 

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Parts of the region experienced a soaking rainfall today with temperatures topping out mainly in the lower 70s. At New York City, the high temperature was 72°. The last time August had a maximum temperature of 72° or below was August 19, 2018 when the temperature also reached 72°. Rainfall amounts included:

Baltimore: 1.06"
Islip: 0.58"
New York City: 0.21"
Newark: 0.14"
Philadelphia: 0.63"
Poughkeepsie: 0.12"
Washington, DC: 1.03"
Wilmington, DE: 1.04"

Out west, extreme heat again prevailed in the Southwest. Select high temperatures included:

Bishop, CA: 108° (old record: 106°, 1994)
Death Valley, CA: 128° (old record: 124°, 1994 and 2002) ***New August Record***
Everett, WA: 99° (old record: 87°, 2010 and 2012) ***New August Record***
Flagstaff: 93° (old record: 89°, 1939) ***Tied August Record***
Kingman, AZ: 109°
Lake Havasu City, AZ: 117°
Las Vegas: 113° (tied record set in 1939)
Lemoore, CA: 120° (old record: 109°, 1967) ***New All-Time Record***
Mesa, AZ: 113° (old record: 108°, 2019)
Modesto, CA: 111° (old record: 104, 1992, 2015 and 2019) ***New August Record***
Needles, CA: 117°
Palm Springs, CA: 114°
Phoenix: 115° (old record: 113°, 1992 and 2013)
Sacramento: 112° (old record: 106°, 1992 and 2015) ***New August Record***
Seattle: 97°
Stockton, CA: 113° (old record: 106°, 1983) ***New August Record***
Tucson: 110° (old record: 108° 1992 and 2013)
Yuma, AZ: 113°

Death Valley reached 125° or above for the second consecutive day. The last time that happened in August was August 9-10, 2012.

Final figures should be available for Death Valley and Lake Havasu City tomorrow.

More intense heat is likely in that region through midweek.

Phoenix has an implied 93% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature of 96.2° - 96.6°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. Today was also Phoenix's 40th day on which the temperature reached 110° or above. The old record was 33 days, which was set in 2011.

Following the storm, readings will warm up tomorrow and Tuesday.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around August 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions will likely develop.

The SOI was +5.46.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.449.

On August 15, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.363 (RMM). The August 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.836.

The MJO's recent passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above has been uncommon during the first half of August. During the 1981-2019 period only 1983 and 2019 saw the MJO move through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the first half of August. August 1983 had the longest such stretch. Both cases saw the second half of August average generally warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Both cases also featured a warmer than normal September.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.0°.

 

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4 hours ago, JoshSnow said:

Today was the most depressing weather day this summer! I can’t take this cool air it’s like October outside. It should be hot and humid it’s only 69 degrees with light rain! I can’t wait until next summer this summer is about done!

Thanks Tony

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The next 8 days are averaging 81.5degs , or 6.5degs. AN 

Month to date is  +2.2[78.2].        Should be about +2.9[79.3] by the 25th.

67*!!!(83%RH), m clear-haze here at 6am.   66* at 6:30am.       70*(80%RH) by 9am.      Got to 75* by 4pm, fell back, but again it is 75* at 6pm.

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White Plains finally ended their record streak of 60° or warmer days. 

 

White Plains   PTCLDY    59  57  93 NW6     

 

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 60 
for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 58 2020-08-16
2 53 2012-08-18
3 51 2008-08-15
- 51 1970-08-19
4 49 2016-08-21
5 45 1988-08-18
6 44 2019-08-07
- 44 2018-08-22
- 44 2005-08-17
7 42 2013-08-03
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Morning thoughts...

In the wake of yesterday’s rainfall, the temperature fell to the coolest levels since near mid-June in parts of the region. At New York City, the temperature fell to 64 degrees, its coolest figure since June 17 when the temperature fell to 60 degrees. At Newark, the temperature fell to 64 degrees. The last time it was at least as cool there was on June 18 when the temperature dropped to 64 degrees.

After a cool start, temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region today. Parts of the region could see some thunderstorms during the afternoon or evening hours.

Out west, intense heat will again topple records in parts of California, Arizona and Nevada. Death Valley reached 130 degrees yesterday. That smashed the August monthly record of 127 degrees, which was set on August 12, 1933 and tied on August 3, 1993 and August 1, 2017. That was also Death Valley’s hottest temperature since July 13, 1913 when the mercury reached 131 degrees. However, there are questions about the accuracy of the July 1913 temperatures, which were far above what would have been expected from temperatures reported on the same dates elsewhere in the region.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/an-investigation-of-death-valleys-134f-world-temperature-record.html

Unlike in July 1913, many areas in the Southwest recorded daily and even monthly record high temperatures. One location recorded an all-time high temperature. In short, yesterday’s 130-degree temperature could have become the world’s highest reliably recorded temperature on record.

In addition, Phoenix reached 115 degrees. That was the 8th time this year that Phoenix reached 115 degrees or above. The prior record was 7 times in 1974.

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At White Plains, the temperature fell to 59 degrees this morning. That ended the 58-day stretch (June 20 through August 16) during which the minimum temperature was 60 degrees or above. The old record of 53 days was set during June 27 through August 18 in 2012.

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37 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

At White Plains, the temperature fell to 59 degrees this morning. That ended the 58-day stretch (June 20 through August 16) during which the minimum temperature was 60 degrees or above. The old record of 53 days was set during June 27 through August 18 in 2012.

I take it that streak of 70+ lows at LGA has come to an end too, as well as the streak of 55+ lows at MPO.  Not sure if the JFK streak is over?

Don do you have any rainfall totals or highest wind gusts from yesterday's "noreaster"?  Also I heard that parts of our area only made it into the 60s for highs?

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

In the wake of yesterday’s rainfall, the temperature fell to the coolest levels since near mid-June in parts of the region. At New York City, the temperature fell to 64 degrees, its coolest figure since June 17 when the temperature fell to 60 degrees. At Newark, the temperature fell to 64 degrees. The last time it was at least as cool there was on June 18 when the temperature dropped to 64 degrees.

After a cool start, temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region today. Parts of the region could see some thunderstorms during the afternoon or evening hours.

Out west, intense heat will again topple records in parts of California, Arizona and Nevada. Death Valley reached 130 degrees yesterday. That smashed the August monthly record of 127 degrees, which was set on August 12, 1933 and tied on August 3, 1993 and August 1, 2017. That was also Death Valley’s hottest temperature since July 13, 1913 when the mercury reached 131 degrees. However, there are questions about the accuracy of the July 1913 temperatures, which were far above what would have been expected from temperatures reported on the same dates elsewhere in the region.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/an-investigation-of-death-valleys-134f-world-temperature-record.html

Unlike in July 1913, many areas in the Southwest recorded daily and even monthly record high temperatures. One location recorded an all-time high temperature. In short, yesterday’s 130-degree temperature could have become the world’s highest reliably recorded temperature on record.

In addition, Phoenix reached 115 degrees. That was the 8th time this year that Phoenix reached 115 degrees or above. The prior record was 7 times in 1974.

Yep that 130 degree temp will be the only verified 130 degree temp in recorded history.....

wow looks like 1993 was a historically hot summer both for Death Valley and for the east coast- that's a rarity!

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

White Plains finally ended their record streak of 60° or warmer days. 

 

White Plains   PTCLDY    59  57  93 NW6     

 

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 60 
for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 58 2020-08-16
2 53 2012-08-18
3 51 2008-08-15
- 51 1970-08-19
4 49 2016-08-21
5 45 1988-08-18
6 44 2019-08-07
- 44 2018-08-22
- 44 2005-08-17
7 42 2013-08-03

I take it LGA, JFK and MPO streaks are all over also?

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I take it that streak of 70+ lows at LGA has come to an end too, as well as the streak of 55+ lows at MPO.  Not sure if the JFK streak is over?

Don do you have any rainfall totals or highest wind gusts from yesterday's "noreaster"?  Also I heard that parts of our area only made it into the 60s for highs?

 

 

 

Yes, LaGuardia's record-breaking 44-day streak (July 3 through August 15) during which the temperature remained at or above 70 degrees or above ended. The previous record was 34 days, which was set July 8 through August 10, 2006.

Islip had a high temperature of 69 degrees yesterday and White Plains only reached 68.

Rainfall totals were not impressive around the area.

 

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No topic on svr for the 5PM-midnight time frame in our area, especially CT, vcnty NYC and LI but to me  it continues to look pretty good.  CAPE arrives a little late in the day but with the wind at 500MB increasing and multimodels showing increasing convection in the 6P-11P time frame, not sure why it won't happen. You're welcome to add the reasons it won't.  For now no topic til we see how this evolves this afternoon. I'm looking for several svr reports in our area late today or this eve.

The second trailer batch between midnight and 4am may have gusty winds but should not be quite as strong as that of the 6P-8P time frame. 1044A/17

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I take it LGA, JFK and MPO streaks are all over also?

 

The Islip streak continues....

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 60 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 63 1967-08-31
2 62 2015-08-28
3 61 2003-08-23
4 60 2020-08-16
5 58 2005-09-05
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75/60 amazing out after a dreary Sunday.  0.22 in the bucket.  Aside from some storms later today and Wed looking dry this work week. Highs generally in the low to mid 80s Mon - Fri (8/17 - 8/21).  Rockies Heat Dome in place through 8/20 before slowly nudging east into the plains. 

8/22 - 8/24

The western Atlantic ridge expands west by Friday and into the weekend allowing heights to come up and warmer air to produce th next opportunity for 90(s) in the area.  Looks like piece of stronger heat is shooting across from the west into early next week.  Have to watch the progression of the western ridge and if we get enough ridging to keep things on the hot side next week 8/24 and beyond.  Tropics coming to life in the Gulf later this week too.  Still think we see piece of the tremendous heat building out west eject east for a 2 day period.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Islip streak continues....

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 60 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 63 1967-08-31
2 62 2015-08-28
3 61 2003-08-23
4 60 2020-08-16
5 58 2005-09-05

funny thing about Islip- they had a low in the 60s and a high in the 60s on the same day :P

Interesting that their record is from 1967, as it was the summer before that (1966) that was the hottest on record up until then.

Did the LGA and MPO streaks end?  Did JFK have a streak ongoing also?

 

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

75/60 amazing out after a dreary Sunday.  0.22 in the bucket.  Aside from some storms later today and Wed looking dry this work week. Highs generally in the low to mid 80s Mon - Fri (8/17 - 8/21).  Rockies Heat Dome in place through 8/20 before slowly nudging east into the plains. 

8/22 - 8/24

The western Atlantic ridge expands west by Friday and into the weekend allowing heights to come up and warmer air to produce th next opportunity for 90(s) in the area.  Looks like piece of stronger heat is shooting across from the west into early next week.  Have to watch the progression of the western ridge and if we get enough ridging to keep things on the hot side next week 8/24 and beyond.  Tropics coming to life in the Gulf later this week too.  Still think we see piece of the tremendous heat building out west eject east for a 2 day period.

it would be tremendous if the two highs could connect......

 

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