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August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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38 minutes ago, Cfa said:

No one would ever say “it’s over” if it were snow in February right after a top 5 cold/snowy January. I know some are itching for fall but let’s be realistic.

90/72 split today, dews in the 60’s feel so dry after endless 70’s and the odd 80+ thrown in the mix.

Who said it was over, all I said was the worst heat has likely passed. That doesn't mean it can't get really hot again though. 

And yeah by mid Feb the worst of the cold has likely passed. That doesn't mean you can't get snowstorms though. 

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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Thought some might like to see this new product.  Has many different ways to break this down geographically, including by county. Have just presented the overall OKX forecast area for the past 20 years of drought detail.  The dark red is D4... pretty serious but not for long and percentage wise (vertical), not too much of the area. Never a D5 in the OKX area the past 20 years. The cursor was set for a day in 2015 (blue vertical). From our NWS-NOA drought monitor group.

Can now search by NWS Weather Forecast Offices by the US Drought Manager Time Series tool.
This a great tool to provide information on how frequent drought occurs by percent of area in your county warning area. It can be found under "Area Type". You can even toggle on or off varying extremes of drought.

Screen Shot 2020-08-14 at 4.15.06 PM.png

I believe the last time NYC  had water restrictions was way back in 2002. But even that drought was much less severe than the one in the 1960s. A study of tree rings found that the 1960s drought may have been our most severe in 400 to 500 years. As your great recent storm threads have highlighted, we have shifted into a much wetter regime here.

https://seaandskyny.com/2012/04/29/trees-tell-the-story-of-500-years-of-nyc-drought-history/

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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I believe the last time NYC  had water restrictions was way back in 2002. But even that drought was much less severe than the one in the 1960s. A study of tree rings found that the 1960s drought may have been our most severe in 400 to 500 years. As your great recent storm threads have highlighted, we have shifted into a much wetter regime here.

https://seaandskyny.com/2012/04/29/trees-tell-the-story-of-500-years-of-nyc-drought-history/

since 1971 NYC is averaging over 50" a year...before that it was 42"...1956 to 1965 was the driest 10 years on record...the drought broke in Sept> 1966...

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26 minutes ago, uncle W said:

since 1971 NYC is averaging over 50" a year...before that it was 42"...1956 to 1965 was the driest 10 years on record...the drought broke in Sept> 1966...

1963-65 had about a 45" combined deficit based on a 48" yearly normal ( From Westerleigh coop).

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Temperatures rose into the middle and, in places, upper 80s today. Tomorrow will be cooler with highs in the lower 80s. Sunday could see some showers and perhaps periods of rain with readings mainly in the 70s.

Nevertheless, the current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around August 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions will likely develop.

The SOI was +1.76.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.181.

On August 13, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.618 (RMM). The August 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.327.

Some of the guidance suggests that the MJO could be in Phase 8 in late August. The convergence of the MJO's passage through phase 8 and revived tropical cyclone activity could suggest the possibility of an East Coast threat during the August 20-September 10 period. Phases 8-1-2 have coincided with a cluster of East Coast landfalls. Belle (1976) and Gloria (1985) made landfall when the MJO was in Phase 8 at a low amplitude. Sandy (2012) and Fay (2020) made landfall when the MJO was in Phase 2.

The MJO's recent passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above has been uncommon during the first half of August. During the 1981-2019 period only 1983 and 2019 saw the MJO move through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the first half of August. August 1983 had the longest such stretch. Both cases saw the second half of August average generally warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Both cases also featured a warmer than normal September.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.0°.

 

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21 minutes ago, doncat said:

1963-65 had about a 45" combined deficit based on a 48" yearly normal ( From Westerleigh coop).

1963 just missed being the driest year on record in NYC...1964 broke the record and became driest year on record...1965 broke that record by a lot to become the driest year on record...1966 was following the same theme but a September deluge broke the drought...

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8/14

EWR: 89
ISP: 88
LGA: 88
TEB: 88
JFK: 86
NYC: 86
New Brnswck: 86
PHL: 86
TTN: 86
ACY: 83
BLM: 83
 

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While clouds kept temps below forecast thursday, today saw more sunshine thanks in part to Josephine., allowing temps to beat guidance. 

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3 hours ago, uncle W said:

1963 just missed being the driest year on record in NYC...1964 broke the record and became driest year on record...1965 broke that record by a lot to become the driest year on record...1966 was following the same theme but a September deluge broke the drought...

I remember those years. A little over 26 inches in 1965. The churches were offering special prayers for ran. Houses with Accessible yards in my Brooklyn neighborhoods were having wells dug. Trying to do that In the city today would probably be a permit nightmare. In my present Brooklyn area, even if my postage stamp was accessible, the NYC Landmarks hysterical society board would deny my request because the ground was historical.. As always ....

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the 2020 tropical season has been extremely active and i can't help but feel the worst is in store for the United States in a big way.  we're burning through a lot of names with relative trash and fish storms, but, the atmosphere clearly intends to let loose on us, the water's there to support it.  and that's really disturbing when you consider the stagnant steering flows and unusual retrograding patterns we've seen.

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The next 8 days are averaging 79.5degs., or 4degs. AN 

Month to date is +2.8[78.8].         Should be about  +3.3[79.0] by the 23rd.

74*(55%RH) here at 6am, scattered overcast.      80*(50%RH) by 11am.

 

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Good Saturday morning to all!  I hope it is a good start.  

Weatherwise. Not starting a topic for Sunday, but you're welcome to.  I think overall, that it will rain but under 1.5" for the area along and southeast of I95...best chance at 1-1.5" Ocean County and Suffolk County.  HOWEVER... if the 12z cycle adjusts north, I'll get one going but no decision til ~230P. UK and EC op runs continue rather dry for tomorrow and I think WPC has reacted drier in its D2 qpf. There is still quite  bit of variability in the NAEFS, but it too has shifted south and insists nothing I84 north (not good for some of us with flowers Sussex and Orange counties).  SREF (short range ensemble) plumes from 03z/15 have a cluster of very little for ISP, and then bunch spread out with big numbers.  EPS and GEFS show more consensus, drier -further south. So am going with the drier further south solution but not ruling out something substantial for the I195 region southward and eastern LI. 

Monday afternoon-early night (17th): You probably saw the SPC D3 Marginal for most of our area except eastern LI.  This i think will be a topic.  Will await clearance of Sunday's system and not begin this yet... but am pretty sure at least isolated will occur in our forum area, especially n of I80. Enough CAPE, WIND aloft and KI.

Wednesday afternoon (19th): ?: might be a severe day?? some guidance signals but very early and this does not yet look like Monday has been looking for a while on the ECMWF.

Sunday the 23rd:  Eight days away so this can easily be nothing to monitor but for now,  somewhat interesting at a distant date.  706A/15

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28 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good Saturday morning to all!  I hope it is a good start.  

Weatherwise. Not starting a topic for Sunday, but you're welcome to.  I think overall, that it will rain but under 1.5" for the area along and southeast of I95...best chance at 1-1.5" Ocean County and Suffolk County.  HOWEVER... if the 12z cycle adjusts north, I'll get one going but no decision til ~230P. UK and EC op runs continue rather dry for tomorrow and I think WPC has reacted drier in its D2 qpf. There is still quite  bit of variability in the NAEFS, but it too has shifted south and insists nothing I84 north (not good for some of us with flowers Sussex and Orange counties).  SREF (short range ensemble) plumes from 03z/15 have a cluster of very little for ISP, and then bunch spread out with big numbers.  EPS and GEFS show more consensus, drier -further south. So am going with the drier further south solution but not ruling out something substantial for the I195 region southward and eastern LI. 

Monday afternoon-early night (17th): You probably saw the SPC D3 Marginal for most of our area except eastern LI.  This i think will be a topic.  Will await clearance of Sunday's system and not begin this yet... but am pretty sure at least isolated will occur in our forum area, especially n of I80. Enough CAPE, WIND aloft and KI.

Wednesday afternoon (19th): ?: might be a severe day?? some guidance signals but very early and this does not yet look like Monday has been looking for a while on the ECMWF.

Sunday the 23rd:  Eight days away so this can easily be nothing to monitor but for now,  somewhat interesting at a distant date.  706A/15

Besides the tropical storm which brought an inch or so, I have barely had any measurable rain in a month up here around West Point. Storms from the West have had an interesting trend of weakening East from the Delaware River during this time frame even during peak heating hours. This and bad luck of Fropa timing and scattered storms barely missing MBY in all directions

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Morning thoughts...

Readings will generally rise into the lower 80s across the region today. Some areas could top out in the middle 80s.

Tomorrow, a system will bring a moderate to heavy rainfall to parts of the Middle Atlantic region. Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey could be in line for 1”-2” rain with locally higher amounts. There is uncertainty how far north the steady rain will come. New York City could see only showers and perhaps a period of rain if the ECMWF is accurate.

Out west, a period of intense heat will be searing parts of California, Arizona and Nevada. Death Valley is poised to challenge the August heat record. Yesterday’s high temperature there was 124 degrees, which was just below the daily record of 125 degrees from 1996. That was the hottest August temperature since the mercury hit 127 degrees on August 1, 2017. Today through Tuesday should be several degrees warmer.

The August record is 127 degrees. That record was set on August 12, 1933 and tied on August 3, 1993 and August 1, 2017.

Earlier this summer, Death Valley recorded a 128-degree high temperature on July 12. That was Death Valley’s highest temperature since July 4, 2013 when the thermometer also reached 128 degrees.

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75/71 mostly cloudy and some light drizzle earlier here.  Those mostly sunny forecasts today look tough with clouds back to MO, onshore high pressure trying to clear things out but may only be successful later this PM.  Will see how much we clear.  Highs today low to mid 80s pending on sunshine.  More clouds and rain tomorrow, pending on northwards extent of storms could be 0.25 or > 1  inch of rain. 

Rockies ridge goes to >600DM  with record heat into the west coast and PNW.   WAR blunted south  8/15 - 8/21.   

Mon and Tue look beautiful with Tue being the warmer day highs mid 80s.  Somewhat cooler air Wed (8/19)  - Fri  (8/20)  low 80s highs and lows 60s/ 50s.  

Looking like a back and forth starting next weekend Sat (8/22) and Sun (8/23) with brief warm up and perhaps the next shot at 90s especially in the warmer spots.  Then a cool down for a day or so before trough into the west coast pushes the Rockies ridge into the Plains.  Hotter finish to the month with potential strong heat for a couple of day as ridge centers into the plains and MW and WAR nearby looking to hook.

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Lets see if caching issue persists. 

Edit yes it reverts back 24 hours on any live image.  Seems to only be in new threads as the storm tracking one still shows the updated loop when you enter the thread or hit  refresh.

 

1356894886_clouds8-15-20.thumb.JPG.51784b37e1aacd5427ee94ef8e391516.JPG

 

 

 

 

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13 hours ago, uncle W said:

since 1971 NYC is averaging over 50" a year...before that it was 42"...1956 to 1965 was the driest 10 years on record...the drought broke in Sept> 1966...

Sept 14th and 21st 1966 we got drenched Especially over 5 inches on the 21st..Were they tropical in origin?.Month in whole was wet and cool,after a hot summer.

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Official 6-10, 8-14 has AN Precip., but OP has just 1/4 of Normal.

In speaking about the early 60's drought, does anyone remember when in 1964 the City had to pump water into WT-2 direct from the Hudson River above the salt line, but not above the pollution line.       Lots of Chlorine was added!

Also, does anyone have a copy of the short 5-Second PSA jingle that played in '65 throughout the northeast drought on radio?

It went simply:    Save Water!-----While There's Water >>>>>>To Save.      A few piano chords and a studio group, I guess

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So the 12z NAM is decidedly back north with 2" parts of NJ and LI, NAM 3k still s by Ocean County.  Might start a topic midday based on more model trends. Topic not so much for Flooding but more so for some parts of our area getting a needed 1-2"  Difficult to ignore the 12z/15 NAM but also difficult to believe the 700 flow configuration it has for 12z in NNJ. No decision til at least Noon, prefer 230P.

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4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

So the 12z NAM is decidedly back north with 2" parts of NJ and LI, NAM 3k still s by Ocean County.  Might start a topic midday based on more model trends. Topic not so much for Flooding but more so for some parts of our area getting a needed 1-2"  Difficult to ignore the 12z/15 NAM but also difficult to believe the 700 flow configuration it has for 12z in NNJ. No decision til at least Noon, prefer 230P.

For days and days the GGEM kept showing sunday as a complete washout. I think most ignored the GGEM rainy solution for sunday because it's a lousy model and all the other models were dry, but maybe it had the right idea for a change.

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8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

For days and days the GGEM kept showing sunday as a complete washout. I think most ignored the GGEM rainy solution for sunday because it's a lousy model and all the other models were dry, but maybe it had the right idea for a change.

It's been on and sometimes off and certainly yesterdays 12z/14 cycle was less than 0.2" and the overnight 00z/15 cycle had about 0.6" NNJ and less LI. That inconsistency, the UK through 00z/15 being bereft of QPF and 00z/15 GEFS/EPS trends weren't helpful in an early, yes it will happen commit.  However,  no matter what happens at 700mb,  the 12z NAM 850 FGEN axis promises 1 to possibly near 3" qpf, at least in the far southeastern part of our forum area (Ocean County and Suffolk).  Am leaning to a topic, with the understanding that it's modeling and no guarantee.  Prefer another couple of hours to await some other modeling information. 

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3 hours ago, KEITH L.I said:

Sept 14th and 21st 1966 we got drenched Especially over 5 inches on the 21st..Were they tropical in origin?.Month in whole was wet and cool,after a hot summer.

not tropical as far as I can see which isn't to far in my condition...that week had about 6" of rain but it does not come close to one of the wettest weeks we have seen...

List of wettest weeks in NYC.
13.02" 10/08-14/2005
12.23" 09/20-26/1882
12.13" 10/07-13/1903
..9.96" 08/05-11/1990
..9.85" 04/12-16/2007
..9.66" 11/04-10/1977

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Decided to wait, til 230 or 430.  IF 12z EC and UK stay south, I have to wait til the 18z NAM.  For now, preliminarily I see a very sharp cut off of rainfall somewhere from Sussex County NJ northward or I84 to about HFD or just west of HFD.  Suspect two bands of heavy rain in our area...one maybe along I80-I78 corridors thru LI (deformation zone in the morning-afternoon, then LI getting the direct storm additional contribution during Sunday evening).  The second band across southern Ocean County NJ.

The northern band narrow, but widespread 0.5-2". the drier zone just south of that band in Monmouth to Trenton,  then the other band over southern Ocean County in the 1-3" zone.  E LI total from both daytime deformation FGEN and evening storm  1-3".  

My guess is much of interior se NYS doesn't receive much if any beneficial rain and maybe Sussex County too, while we watch some pretty decent bands along I80 or 78?  

That's my early take. Can adjust northward tonight or Sunday morning if modeling evidence and reality support. 

Should we topic?  It would be for rainfall reports primarily, and easing of some recent dryness in a few spots of our forum.  FF not likely except maybe southern Ocean County?  Lesser flood advisories would probably occur for poor drainage urban flooding Sunday near NYC (IF I'm reading this right?)   127P/15

 

at 131P: If it's any consolation...the GEFS is a tick higher for NJ/LI and as far north as it's been since the 18z/14 run with 1" skirting the s coast of LI. It's broad output so doesn't get into the banding etc. 

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22 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Decided to wait, til 230 or 430.  IF 12z EC and UK stay south, I have to wait til the 18z NAM.  For now, preliminarily I see a very sharp cut off of rainfall somewhere from Sussex County NJ northward or I84 to about HFD or just west of HFD.  Suspect two bands of heavy rain in our area...one maybe along I80-I78 corridors thru LI (deformation zone in the morning-afternoon, then LI getting the direct storm additional contribution during Sunday evening).  The second band across southern Ocean County NJ.

The northern band narrow, but widespread 0.5-2". the drier zone just south of that band in Monmouth to Trenton,  then the other band over southern Ocean County in the 1-3" zone.  E LI total from both daytime deformation FGEN and evening storm  1-3".  

My guess is much of interior se NYS doesn't receive much if any beneficial rain and maybe Sussex County too, while we watch some pretty decent bands along I80 or 78?  

That's my early take. Can adjust northward tonight or Sunday morning if modeling evidence and reality support. 

Should we topic?  It would be for rainfall reports primarily, and easing of some recent dryness in a few spots of our forum.  FF not likely except maybe southern Ocean County?  Lesser flood advisories would probably occur for poor drainage urban flooding Sunday near NYC (IF I'm reading this right?)   127P/15

 

at 131P: If it's any consolation...the GEFS is a tick higher for NJ/LI and as far north as it's been since the 18z/14 run with 1" skirting the s coast of LI. It's broad output so doesn't get into the banding etc. 

What do you think about winds? I know nothing crazy but nam and gfs have 40+ gust just offshore a bump north southern areas can get some gust 

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