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August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

funny thing about Islip- they had a low in the 60s and a high in the 60s on the same day :P

Interesting that their record is from 1967, as it was the summer before that (1966) that was the hottest on record up until then.

Did the LGA and MPO streaks end?  Did JFK have a streak ongoing also?

 

LGA ended their 70° streak yesterday. JFK finally dipped below 65° today. MPO dropped to 52° ending their longest 55° streak. The margin  on the new MPO record was even bigger than the LGA one.Very impressive for around 1900 feet elevation in NE PA.

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 65 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 62 1980-09-07
2 59 2015-08-27
3 57 2020-08-16
4 52 2011-08-22
5 47 2019-08-10

 

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 55 
for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 50 2020-08-16
2 32 1938-08-18
- 32 1919-06-27
3 31 2013-07-23

 

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 
for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 44 2020-08-15
2 34 2006-08-10
3 32 1980-08-15
4 29 2018-08-19
5 28 2010-07-30
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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

LGA ended their 70° streak yesterday. JFK finally dipped below 65° today. MPO dropped to 52° ending their longest 55° streak. The margin  on the new MPO record was even bigger than the LGA one.Very impressive for around 1900 feet elevation in NE PA.

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 65 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 62 1980-09-07
2 59 2015-08-27
3 57 2020-08-16
4 52 2011-08-22
5 47 2019-08-10

 

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 55 
for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 50 2020-08-16
2 32 1938-08-18
- 32 1919-06-27
3 31 2013-07-23

 

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 
for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 44 2020-08-15
2 34 2006-08-10
3 32 1980-08-15
4 29 2018-08-19
5 28 2010-07-30

Yes I needed to wear a heavy blanket and close the windows! awww we missed the record at JFK by only 5 days!  I assume EWR and NYC weren't near any records?

 

 

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49 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes I needed to wear a heavy blanket and close the windows! awww we missed the record at JFK by only 5 days!  I assume EWR and NYC weren't near any records?

 

 

The record 65° streak for EWR and NYC ended this morning.

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 65 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 59 2020-08-16
2 57 2011-08-11
3 55 2003-08-17
- 55 1994-08-04
4 52 2010-08-24
5 47 2019-08-10

 

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 65 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 60 2020-08-16
2 58 2005-09-05
3 57 2018-09-07
4 55 1906-08-31
5 52 2010-08-23

 

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Thanks, so much Chris!  From all this what I get is that 55 at MPO == 65 at NYC, EWR and JFK == 70 at LGA.  It seems those are good equivalents to use when comparing the low temp data during the summer at these locations.

 

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it never fails that just when i feel safe to leave my house with the windows open that we get rain out of seemingly nowhere.

bright blue morning, drier than its been, muted forecast, and of course there is a cell over Somerset now heading my way while i am at work.

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Pouring! 

can you go close my house windows plz

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Tropical page is beginning to become active... does look interesting middle and end of next week up to at least 35N. I didn't say "promising" but for me, interesting in the form of moisture 27th-29th. We'll see how long this is worth monitoring for our area? 10 days out, should say enough for the uncertainty. 423P/17

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Tropical page is beginning to become active... does look interesting middle and end of next week up to at least 35N. I didn't say "promising" but for me, interesting in the form of moisture 27th-29th. We'll see how long this is worth monitoring for our area? 10 days out, should say enough for the uncertainty. 423P/17

As long as I’m finally on the west side of it and don’t have to deal with more massive tree loss and power outages, I’m good. Give me the 3-5” rain anyday over some showers with the high wind. 

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Passing this on to those who can access digital VIL.. if we you get a value over 35,  specially for 2 or 3 scans... look for hail.  We have some hail up here in Sussex County around 535PM, Frankford Township...size unknown.  That was also our first thunder of the day here in Wantage, despite two previous shower episodes. Now at 623P... total rainfall .20.  Not like some stripes of heavier showers over an inch. I see a decent storm approaching Manville NJ and radar does detect small hail from that one. 

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Interesting next 3 hours NYC area and LI.  Cell mergers... Intense rainfall in a few spots with 1" and maybe some pea sized hail and gust 40-50 MPH.  Something to watch for as your modeled available CAPE looks decent.  Also, whether this verifies, unlikely...but the HRRR is producing a near svr gust in Ulster County around 05z.  Kind of late at night but i see a second band overnight. 643P/17 thunder and rain. 

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On a bike trying to outrun that storm that just crossed the GWB. Looking a little vicious behind me.

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The region saw its coolest readings since just after mid-June this morning. However, under sunshine, the temperature rebounded into the upper 70s and lower 80s. The day ended with scattered thunderstorms. Another brief cool shot is possible near mid-week before a more prolonged warming trend takes hold.

Out west, extreme heat again prevailed in the Southwest. Select high temperatures included:

Bishop, CA: 105°
Blythe, CA: 117° (old record: 116°, 1950 and 1992)
Death Valley, CA: 127° (old record: 125°, 1994)
Flagstaff: 91° (old record: 88°, 2002)
Kingman, AZ: 108° (old record: 106°, 2001)
Lake Havasu City, AZ: 115°
Las Vegas: 112° (old record: 111°, 1939)
Mesa, AZ: 113° (old record: 106°, 2019)
Needles, CA: 117° (tied record set in 1892)
Palm Springs, CA: 114°
Phoenix: 115° (old record: 114°, 2013)
Sacramento: 105°
Stockton, CA: 109° (old record: 106°, 1967)
Tucson, AZ: 109° (old record: 108°, 2013)
Yuma, AZ: 114° (tied record set in 1892 and tied in 1953 and 1992)

Death Valley reached 125° or above for the third consecutive day. That ties the August record, which was set during August 11-13, 1933 and tied during August 6-8, 1998.

Intense heat will likely continue in that region into the coming weekend although the most severe heat will fade after midweek.

Phoenix has an implied 96% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature of 96.3° - 96.7°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions will likely develop.

The SOI was -3.52.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.917.

On August 16, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.635 (RMM). The August 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.367.

The MJO's recent passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above has been uncommon during the first half of August. During the 1981-2019 period only 1983 and 2019 saw the MJO move through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the first half of August. August 1983 had the longest such stretch. Both cases saw the second half of August average generally warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Both cases also featured a warmer than normal September.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.0°.

 

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8/17

EWR: 84
TEB: 83
New Brnswck: 83
LGA: 83
PHL: 83
TTN: 82
NYC: 81
ACY: 80
ISP: 79
BLM: 79
JFK: 78

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Big thunderstorm in the Bronx raining decently hard with thunder and lightning south wind at 11mph with a temperature at 70 degrees.

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From this evening as a thunderstorm passed to the north of Larchmont. The Village received a downpour, but only a few drops fell right at the Long Island Sound.

Larchmont08172020-1.jpg

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Getting hammered in Syosset.  .81” of rain in 15 minutes, I’m surprised no flood warning issued. Still raining probably end up close to 1”. 

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1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

Getting hammered in Syosset.  .81” of rain in 15 minutes, I’m surprised no flood warning issued. Still raining probably end up close to 1”. 

yea thats headed this way, doesn't look to be weakening at all either.

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