Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,789
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Mibuki
    Newest Member
    Mibuki
    Joined

August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
 Share

Recommended Posts

NYC/CT...storms will probably make it with damaging wind by 3AM across parts of our forum... NYC area into sw CT...am pretty sure. Penty of CAPE in place. That may[ have been the difference for this past evenings 8PM storms in NYC area... CAPE wasn't already in place...was accompanying the the rain. This is the real deal, as they say. This may be last post of the night.  Walt

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Great job by @wdrag on highlighting this potential. Spot on as usual. Definitely an impressive line of storms, have to see how it holds together as it approached portions of the NYC metro.

@wdrag is an outstanding contributor to an outstanding message board.

and i just saw a massive flash of lightning from that line like 60 miles away.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

NYC/CT...storms will probably make it with damaging wind by 3AM across parts of our forum... NYC area into sw CT...am pretty sure. Penty of CAPE in place. That may[ have been the difference for this past evenings 8PM storms in NYC area... CAPE wasn't already in place...was accompanying the the rain. This is the real deal, as they say. This may be last post of the night.  Walt

Thank you for all your post you crushed this timing and all

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good Tuesday morning everyone, 

I see the overnight band of storms faded in it's intensity before making it to NYC.  I have to think there will be a few more late reports of severe overnight around 1AM, at least per the high res velocity data I saw going thru nw NJ and Orange County NY vicinity Port Jervis ~1AM.  However, if not,  then at least we got some rain and thunder early today. 

I don't have new topic material for now. 

Today: Might be an isolated shower in nw NJ and se NYS this afternoon that tracks into CT/LI this evening but a long shot.

Wednesday:  suspect a narrow band of showers of across NJ and possibly LI early Wednesday with a very brief instability burst.

Sat 22nd-Monday 24th: looks a little more interesting, especially Sunday in NJ/LI, for thunderstorms. 

Late next week: Going to be interesting to watch tropics and northern stream interactions next week. For now, tropic moisture should be shunted east-northeast, to our south but we'll have to look for possible changes in the northern stream Great Lakes area trough. If some of that trough splits south into Tennessee (long shot right now) then we can bring up some of that tropical moisture.  For now, most 00z/18 ensemble members of the GEFS, EPS/NAEFS say it stays southeast of us guided by a coherent northern stream west to east dominant flow.  539A/18

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good Tuesday morning everyone, 

I see the overnight band of storms faded in it's intensity before making it to NYC.  I have to think there will be a few more late reports of severe overnight around 1AM, at least per the high res velocity data I saw going thru nw NJ and Orange County NY vicinity Port Jervis ~1AM.  However, if not,  then at least we got some rain and thunder early today. 

Vivid lighting and booming thunder around 2am woke me up despite the AC and a fan running which typically drowns out all other noise, lasted 20-30 minutes, picked up .65”

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

You nailed it Walt. The storm cluster early this AM crushed me with the heaviest rain since May. I got 1.3" in less than an hour! It was more than I got in the two tropical storms put together. Good wind, great lightning and gutter overflowing downpours. See what you can do to rustle up a few more of those ;)

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts...

It was another cool morning in parts of the region. At New York City, the temperature fell to 63 degrees, its coolest figure since June 17 when the temperature fell to 60 degrees. At Newark, the temperature fell to 63 degrees. The last time it was at least as cool there was on June 17 when the temperature dropped to 60 degrees.

Under bright sunshine, temperatures will rebound to the lower and even middle 80s. After another short mid-week cool shot, noticeably warmer conditions will likely develop for the coming weekend.

Out west, intense heat will again topple records in parts of California, Arizona and Nevada.

Out in the eastern Atlantic, a new tropical depression could develop in coming days. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This was the heaviest rain event for Eastern LI in a while. 2.52” at the Southhold mesonet. They picked up 1.12” of that total in just 15 minutes.

http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=sout

Liquid-Equivalent Precipitation
6 hours: 2.32″
1 day: 2.52″
3 days: 3.08″
7 days: 3.17″

 

 

 

I am out in the East Hampton area till end of month, the thunder overnight was house shaking and even woke up my 7 year old who is a deep sleeper. Quite impressive.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

I am out in the East Hampton area till end of month, the thunder overnight was house shaking and even woke up my 7 year old who is a deep sleeper. Quite impressive.

Impressive training event for the Twin Forks.

Station Number: NY-SF-140  Station Name: Amagansett 1.5 E
Observation Date 8/18/2020 9:00 AM
Submitted 8/18/2020 9:49 AM
Total Precip Amount  2.41 in.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

CoCoRAHS 24 hr rainfall (multi bands of showers/tstms Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning). Note bands of 1"+.  My 0.42 is in the northern part of Sussex County but does not show since am not a CoCoRAHS observer.  This graphic gives us an idea of what happened but not necessarily a completely clear picture. Neither does this sensor-radar mix image that has been appended.   I do think we need to consider adding PWS's that have a quality assurance filter placed on them to at least the sensor-radar image.  I think they could help modify the bands.  A friend's PWS  ~ 7 miles away, had 1.68" in Frankford Township NJ (Sussex County)... as compared to my 0.42" in Wantage. Both are not well defined in the graphics. 

Finally, there was a hail report from another friend in Frankford Township, probably pea,  but we need crowd sourcing mPING back so we can get a better grip on the realities as they unfold.  Unsure when mPING returns. I do know that Frankford Township hail defined cell had a DVIL in excess of 35 and so no surprise when the hail report came through. I'm betting more unreported hail occurred in our forum area,  especially NNJ and Orange County. 1212P/18

Screen_Shot_2020-08-18_at_11_51.15_AM.png

Screen_Shot_2020-08-18_at_11_56.14_AM.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Later update 83/59 - gorgeous day.  Looking ahead at a very nice and seasonal few days with highs in the low to perhaps mid 80s.  Heat dome lingering a few more days out west before shifting a bit east towards the Plains.   We warm things up 8/22 - 8/27 with next chance of 90s in the areas as 850 MB temps >16c and with a piece of that strong heat >18c pushing etast into the area by mid week (8/25-26) possible with storms becoming possible during the peroid..  Also need to watch topics.  Flow is flatter towards the end of next week and once we clear or get through any influence from the tropics it looks warm overall.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Later update 83/59 - gorgeous day.  Looking ahead at a very nice and seasonal few days with highs in the low to perhaps mid 80s.  Heat dome lingering a few more days out west before shifting a bit east towards the Plains.   We warm things up 8/22 - 8/27 with next chance of 90s in the areas as 850 MB temps >16c and with a piece of that strong heat >18c pushing etast into the area by mid week (8/25-26) possible with storms becoming possible during the peroid..  Also need to watch topics.  Flow is flatter towards the end of next week and once we clear or get through any influence from the tropics it looks warm overall.  

this looks stormy

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_10.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...