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Rtd208

August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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That line means business, some of those are warned cells but not sure if they’ll make it down to the city. We’ll see I guess. Regardless tomorrow looks like a perfect day to go to the beach.

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NYC/CT...storms will probably make it with damaging wind by 3AM across parts of our forum... NYC area into sw CT...am pretty sure. Penty of CAPE in place. That may[ have been the difference for this past evenings 8PM storms in NYC area... CAPE wasn't already in place...was accompanying the the rain. This is the real deal, as they say. This may be last post of the night.  Walt

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23 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Great job by @wdrag on highlighting this potential. Spot on as usual. Definitely an impressive line of storms, have to see how it holds together as it approached portions of the NYC metro.

@wdrag is an outstanding contributor to an outstanding message board.

and i just saw a massive flash of lightning from that line like 60 miles away.

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1 minute ago, wdrag said:

NYC/CT...storms will probably make it with damaging wind by 3AM across parts of our forum... NYC area into sw CT...am pretty sure. Penty of CAPE in place. That may[ have been the difference for this past evenings 8PM storms in NYC area... CAPE wasn't already in place...was accompanying the the rain. This is the real deal, as they say. This may be last post of the night.  Walt

Thank you for all your post you crushed this timing and all

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An impressive light show with the squall line as it passes through.  Frequent CTC/CTG Is accompanying this feature.  No strong winds here.

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Impressive light show indeed out here in Warren County for most of Monday evening. It appears this line maxed out once it went Tornado Warned near Stroudsburg PA.  It moved through here with a nice light show and torrential rain. Thankfully no damage at this time. 

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Good Tuesday morning everyone, 

I see the overnight band of storms faded in it's intensity before making it to NYC.  I have to think there will be a few more late reports of severe overnight around 1AM, at least per the high res velocity data I saw going thru nw NJ and Orange County NY vicinity Port Jervis ~1AM.  However, if not,  then at least we got some rain and thunder early today. 

I don't have new topic material for now. 

Today: Might be an isolated shower in nw NJ and se NYS this afternoon that tracks into CT/LI this evening but a long shot.

Wednesday:  suspect a narrow band of showers of across NJ and possibly LI early Wednesday with a very brief instability burst.

Sat 22nd-Monday 24th: looks a little more interesting, especially Sunday in NJ/LI, for thunderstorms. 

Late next week: Going to be interesting to watch tropics and northern stream interactions next week. For now, tropic moisture should be shunted east-northeast, to our south but we'll have to look for possible changes in the northern stream Great Lakes area trough. If some of that trough splits south into Tennessee (long shot right now) then we can bring up some of that tropical moisture.  For now, most 00z/18 ensemble members of the GEFS, EPS/NAEFS say it stays southeast of us guided by a coherent northern stream west to east dominant flow.  539A/18

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37 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good Tuesday morning everyone, 

I see the overnight band of storms faded in it's intensity before making it to NYC.  I have to think there will be a few more late reports of severe overnight around 1AM, at least per the high res velocity data I saw going thru nw NJ and Orange County NY vicinity Port Jervis ~1AM.  However, if not,  then at least we got some rain and thunder early today. 

Vivid lighting and booming thunder around 2am woke me up despite the AC and a fan running which typically drowns out all other noise, lasted 20-30 minutes, picked up .65”

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The next 8 days are averaging 80degs., or 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +1.9[77.8].        Should be +2.9[78.5] by the 26th.

66*(87%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue.         75*(72%RH) by Noon.

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You nailed it Walt. The storm cluster early this AM crushed me with the heaviest rain since May. I got 1.3" in less than an hour! It was more than I got in the two tropical storms put together. Good wind, great lightning and gutter overflowing downpours. See what you can do to rustle up a few more of those ;)

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Morning thoughts...

It was another cool morning in parts of the region. At New York City, the temperature fell to 63 degrees, its coolest figure since June 17 when the temperature fell to 60 degrees. At Newark, the temperature fell to 63 degrees. The last time it was at least as cool there was on June 17 when the temperature dropped to 60 degrees.

Under bright sunshine, temperatures will rebound to the lower and even middle 80s. After another short mid-week cool shot, noticeably warmer conditions will likely develop for the coming weekend.

Out west, intense heat will again topple records in parts of California, Arizona and Nevada.

Out in the eastern Atlantic, a new tropical depression could develop in coming days. 

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40 minutes ago, Cfa said:

¿Que?

I tried to take it, but received the following message: 

This survey is now closed, but the Haz Simp team will still be accepting comments on the proposal via email ([email protected]) through August 21, 2020. Thank you for your interest!

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This was the heaviest rain event for Eastern LI in a while. 2.52” at the Southhold mesonet. They picked up 1.12” of that total in just 15 minutes.

http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=sout

Liquid-Equivalent Precipitation
6 hours: 2.32″
1 day: 2.52″
3 days: 3.08″
7 days: 3.17″

 

 

 

I am out in the East Hampton area till end of month, the thunder overnight was house shaking and even woke up my 7 year old who is a deep sleeper. Quite impressive.

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18 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

I am out in the East Hampton area till end of month, the thunder overnight was house shaking and even woke up my 7 year old who is a deep sleeper. Quite impressive.

Impressive training event for the Twin Forks.

Station Number: NY-SF-140  Station Name: Amagansett 1.5 E
Observation Date 8/18/2020 9:00 AM
Submitted 8/18/2020 9:49 AM
Total Precip Amount  2.41 in.
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CoCoRAHS 24 hr rainfall (multi bands of showers/tstms Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning). Note bands of 1"+.  My 0.42 is in the northern part of Sussex County but does not show since am not a CoCoRAHS observer.  This graphic gives us an idea of what happened but not necessarily a completely clear picture. Neither does this sensor-radar mix image that has been appended.   I do think we need to consider adding PWS's that have a quality assurance filter placed on them to at least the sensor-radar image.  I think they could help modify the bands.  A friend's PWS  ~ 7 miles away, had 1.68" in Frankford Township NJ (Sussex County)... as compared to my 0.42" in Wantage. Both are not well defined in the graphics. 

Finally, there was a hail report from another friend in Frankford Township, probably pea,  but we need crowd sourcing mPING back so we can get a better grip on the realities as they unfold.  Unsure when mPING returns. I do know that Frankford Township hail defined cell had a DVIL in excess of 35 and so no surprise when the hail report came through. I'm betting more unreported hail occurred in our forum area,  especially NNJ and Orange County. 1212P/18

Screen_Shot_2020-08-18_at_11_51.15_AM.png

Screen_Shot_2020-08-18_at_11_56.14_AM.png

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Had a nice cell move through last night around 3am. Lots of lightning and .52" of rain.  All total yesterday through this morning I got .82". 

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4 hours ago, Cfa said:

¿Que?

Uh, if it’s as simple as “should advisories go away?” the only answer to that is no. 

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On beach here in CI,    My remotely read T is a nice 80* at 3pm, with variable clouds since 2pm.    Decent spread out crowd for a weekday.

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