August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[binbisso]

Pretty typical summer weather Saturday through Tuesday with 85 to 90 degree readings for most of the area. Then looks like a big fail by the Euro for Wednesday possibly into Thursday with the big heat its showing. Friday looks like tropical remnants could affect the area then  big cool down next week end. 

[wdrag]

First showers ne PA, approaching nw NJ at 1250P. Small pinheads so far. 

[SACRUS]

1PM Roundup

LGA: 88
EWR: 88
TEB: 87
New Brnswck: 87
NYC: 86
BLM: 85
ISP: 85
PHL: 85
JFK: 84
TTN: 84

ACY: 83

[SACRUS]

24 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Pretty typical summer weather Saturday through Tuesday with 85 to 90 degree readings for most of the area. Then looks like a big fail by the Euro for Wednesday possibly into Thursday with the big heat its showing. Friday looks like tropical remnants could affect the area then  big cool down next week end. 

Looks to run +5 - +7 or more each day today - Tue.  Wed still up in the air of extent of the strong heat by Thu/Fri models look to bring in 95(+) potential heat, then potetntial wet/warm with remnants of Laura Fri PM / Sat.  Cooldown looks similar to this week 2-3 days then flow goes warm again by 9/4.

[wdrag]

Fairfield NJ shower in ne NJ at 115P. nice sized shower in ne PA. 

[forkyfork]

51 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

tuesday looks like the biggest severe event of the season

nw flow, potent s/w, 2k ML cape...

[dmillz25]

18 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

nw flow, potent s/w, 2k ML cape...

Derecho threat? Honestly asking

[Rjay]

17 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Derecho threat? Honestly asking

He says yes.   I say we'll see...lol.   You should go with me.  It's not like he's a meteorologist or something.  

[CIK_62]

ON BEACH IN CI.,  82*, Heat Index is is 88*      TS passing to north, I hope. 2pm. 8K

85*, Hèàr Index now 92^ àt 3pm.       87^ and a 94* HI at 3:30pm.

[Cfa]

The sea breeze has been loving my location this summer, it just moves in and parks itself right over me, so much early afternoon cloud cover this July/Aug + high dews.

89/80 here, because of said sea breeze causing the dew point to spike.

[doncat]

Add another 90° here currently after an 11 day break.

[Rjay]

86/72

[Snowlover11]

thunderboomer just south of me heading for the bronx.

[Rtd208]

Current temp 90/DP 67/RH 46%

[SACRUS]

2PM

LGA: 89
EWR: 89
New Brnswck: 88
BLM: 88
TTN: 86
JFK: 86
PHL: 86
NYC: 86
TEB: 85 (storm)
ACY: 84
ISP: 83

[uncle W]

27 minutes ago, doncat said:

Add another 90° here currently after an 11 day break.

you beat me to it...

[Rtd208]

Temp up to 93 here now.

[Intensewind002]

Current 87/72 with a heat index of 93 here

[STORMANLI]

TS just developed east of me.

Reached 87f today

[bluewave]

BDL reached 93° today. So they are just 1 short of their all time 90° day record of 38 days in 1983.

Time Series Summary for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	1983	38	0
2	2020	37	132
3	2002	35	0
4	2010	34	0
-	1965	34	0
5	2018	32	0
-	1966	32	0
6	2016	31	0
-	1991	31	0
-	1949	31	3
7	1988	30	0
-	1973	30	0
8	2005	29	0
9	1999	28	0
10	2019	27	0

[Cfa]

90/70 split today.

[CIK62]

4 hours ago, binbisso said:

I think you need to use a different formula for calculating how warm is going to be over the next eight days. In reality this period Was -2 for Central Park. It's not  like you're remotely close. The park is at + 1.1 for the month

DO NOT BLAME ME.       THE GFS IN THIS PART OF THE WORLD RUNS 5 DEGREES TOO WARM, AT LEAST IN THE SUMMER.         I MENTIONED THIS MANY TIMES.       I WILL   CALCULATE BY SUBTRACTING 5 FROM THE AVERAGE AND USE THAT TO GET A RANGE.      I JUST USE A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OTHERWISE.

[binbisso]

26 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

DO NOT BLAME ME.       THE GFS IN THIS PART OF THE WORLD RUNS 5 DEGREES TOO WARM, AT LEAST IN THE SUMMER.         I MENTIONED THIS MANY TIMES.       I WILL   CALCULATE BY SUBTRACTING 5 FROM THE AVERAGE AND USE THAT TO GET A RANGE.      I JUST USE A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OTHERWISE.

That's interesting I thought the GFS runs about 5 degrees too cold. I think the more accurate way to portray temperatures for the next 8 days would be taking an average from the three major Global models  Euro GFS in UK which is what I assumed you did. To use the GFS to gauge temperatures for the next 8 days does not make sense.

[weathermedic]

Picked up a quick .35 inches from that cell here in Sheepshead Bay. Almost no wind and very little lightning though 

[dWave]

Windy, mostly cloudy, mild day at robert moses. At home now its another world. Hardly any breeze..sunny and hot high was 91, 30 days for the year. 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

BDL reached 93° today. So they are just 1 short of their all time 90° day record of 38 days in 1983.

Time Series Summary for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	1983	38	0
2	2020	37	132
3	2002	35	0
4	2010	34	0
-	1965	34	0
5	2018	32	0
-	1966	32	0
6	2016	31	0
-	1991	31	0
-	1949	31	3
7	1988	30	0
-	1973	30	0
8	2005	29	0
9	1999	28	0
10	2019	27	0

likely gets beaten in the next 3 days with highs in the low 90's to near 90 next 3 days

[doncat]

92/72 split today.

[MJO812]

Insane tracks for the 2 hurricanes

Double trouble

Then remnants trouble for our area

[donsutherland1]

Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures rose to the middle and upper 80s today. A few parts of the region reached 90° or slightly above.

90° Days for Select Cities (through August 22):

Albany: 13 (2019: 12 days)
Allentown: 23 (2019: 24 days)
Baltimore: 40 (2019: 59 days)
Boston: 14 (2019: 15 days)
Burlington: 20 (2019: 8 days)
Harrisburg: 30 (2019: 33 days)
Hartford: 37 (2019: 27 days)
Islip: 6 (2019: 8 days)
New York City-JFK: 10 (2019: 7 days)
New York City-LGA: 31 (2019: 26 days)
New York City-NYC: 18 (2019: 15 days)
Newark: 28 (2019: 28 days)
Philadelphia: 32 (2019: 35 days)
Scranton: 24 (2019: 12 days)
Washington, DC: 41 (2019: 62 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 22 (2019: 19 days)
...Expected: 22 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Tomorrow will be another warm day. At the height of the warmth early next week, readings could approach or reach 90° in much of the region. However, the month could end on a cool note before temperatures return to above normal levels during the first week of September. In addition, the remnants of Laura could exit off the Middle Atlantic coast late next week.

The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.

Parts of the West continued to experience near record to record warmth. Select high temperatures included:

Death Valley, CA: 121°
Denver: 97°
Flagstaff: 90° (old record: 88°, 1938)
Las Vegas: 105°
Needles, CA: 111°
Phoenix: 106°
Pueblo, CO: 103° (old record: 100°, 2003 and 2013) ***hottest so late in the season***

At Death Valley, the temperature topped out at 120°. That was also the 9th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 120° or above. That is the longest August stretch since August 6-17, 2012 when the mercury reached 120° or above on 12 consecutive days.

Phoenix has an implied near 100% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature of 96.6° - 97.0°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. August 2020 could approach or exceed that figure. There is currently an implied 56% probability that August will exceed July's monthly record.

As recently, as 2000, the 30-year average summer minimum temperature in Phoenix was 79.8°. The last time Phoenix had an average summer minimum temperature below 80.0° was 1998 when the average minimum temperature was 79.7°. The first time Phoenix recorded an average summer mean temperature of 80° or above was in 1977 when the average low temperature was 81.5°. Records go back to August 1895.     

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions will likely develop.

The SOI was +9.53.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.397.

On August 21, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.533 (RMM). The August 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.572.

The MJO's recent passage through Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above has been fairly uncommon during the August 10-25 timeframe. During the 1981-2019 period only 2002 and 2004 saw the MJO move through Phase 8 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during this period. Both cases were followed by a warmer than normal September.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°.

Finally, on August 21, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.386 million square kilometers (JAXA). There is an implied 86% probability that Arctic sea ice extent will reach a minimum figure below 4.000 million square kilometers for the second consecutive year and third time on record. The highest 25% bound is 3.870 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 3.460 million square kilometers.

 

[SACRUS]

8/22

LGA: 92
EWR: 92
New Brnswck: 91
BLM: 89
TEB: 89
NYC: 88
TTN: 88
PHL: 87
ISP: 86
JFK: 86
ACY: 86