ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 29 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Official Futility still in tact for ORH not bad merry xmas ORH had 0.1 so futility is gone. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: December hasn't been *that* good up here. I'll have to look but it is likely below normal snowfall, but it was very cold for the first half of the month. We were just riding on the coat tails of record November snows, followed by refreshing events but nothing huge in December. The brutal cold departures just continued the theme of deep winter despite no true "storms". Having constant snow cover for like 6 solid weeks leading into Christmas, it does put you in a different mindset, like man this winter has been going on for a while. To me the biggest snowfall gradient was somewhere between northern Mass and like Gene's area in that first round of winter. Gene having a 30+ inch November compared with 50 miles south was a decent gradient. I would say Compare LWM season to Plymouth NH and i do understand Stowe had a so so December . The cold air just sustained the huge depths at elevation for so early in the season. dude we just had 18 pages for a 35 degree flurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: dude we just had 18 pages for a 35 degree flurry Haha it's that time of year and it's been that type of start to winter. This was like a 2001-02 winter type thread. But when it started there seemed to be a lot more potential. I mean a widespread 1-3" in the HFD-PVD-BOS area would've gathered a lot more posts and interest than 1-3" that fell in the BTV CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 42 minutes ago, weathafella said: Weeklies? Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 24, 2018 Author Share Posted December 24, 2018 39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ORH had 0.1 so futility is gone. Lol. To be fair ... futility should technically be <= ".01" because values less than that are theoretical and cannot be 100% proven false or true based upon no measuring being absolute. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: To be fair ... futility should technically be <= ".01" because values less than that are theoretical and cannot be 100% proven false or true based upon no measuring being absolute. ... I thInk in this case futility refers to weakest snow December on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 36 minutes ago, powderfreak said: December hasn't been *that* good up here. I'll have to look but it is likely below normal snowfall, but it was very cold for the first half of the month. We were just riding on the coat tails of record November snows, followed by refreshing events but nothing huge in December. I can give you some quick numbers that pretty much back up your impressions, using my data as a proxy for the local higher elevations since we typically run in synch. There’s no question about November, it was really strong and put us well ahead on snowfall. The peak of the surplus, depending on whether you want to look at it in percent or inches, was somewhere in the range of Nov 16th (502.3% of average) to Dec 7th (27.7” ahead of average). The current season held its record pace (at least in the context of my data set) until Dec 15th at 51.1” of snow. On Dec 16th, it fell behind ‘07-‘08, which was at 62.5” on that date. As of today, this season has fallen to 3rd place behind ‘07-‘08 and ‘08-‘09, which were running nearly neck-and-neck on Dec 24th at 72.4” and 74.3” respectively. Indeed as you surmised, December snowfall has been a bit behind average pace according to my data. The average December snowfall as of December 24th here is 26.8”, and including the couple of inches so far from today’s event, we’re at 21.6”, so 5.2” behind/80.6% of average for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Being out of model loop today with the holiday. Are you split on ensemble camps on the 31st/ 1st storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Being out of model loop today with the holiday. Are you split on ensemble camps on the 31st/ 1st storm? How's Thursday ice storm? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 4 hours ago, moneypitmike said: I wonder what percentage of this board have absolutely no clue as to who that is. Ha, I wondered that myself when I posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Bump Continuation of previous epic looks in Feb with classic nino pac and stout neg nao. Weeks 3-4 look good this run as well with the transition away from the coupled +pna/-epo. Would imply active wx across the conus and plenty of cold around to work with through the second half of Jan. Overall another good weeklies run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Continuation of previous epic looks in Feb with classic nino pac and stout neg nao. Weeks 3-4 look good this run as well with the transition away from the coupled +pna/-epo. Would imply active wx across the conus and plenty of cold around to work with through the second half of Jan. Overall another good weeklies run. Thank you! Hopefully they’ll be right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Thank you! Hopefully they’ll be right! Yea, this was a particularly good run because weeks 3-7 are all workable in both our regions and each week gets better than the previous. If they're even just mostly right it would make the current crap Pac period we're in now the worst period of winter. It can't end soon enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, this was a particularly good run because weeks 3-7 are all workable in both our regions and each week gets better than the previous. If they're even just mostly right it would make the current crap Pac period we're in now the worst period of winter. It can't end soon enough... Music to my ears, my good man. Merry Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 55 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, this was a particularly good run because weeks 3-7 are all workable in both our regions and each week gets better than the previous. If they're even just mostly right it would make the current crap Pac period we're in now the worst period of winter. It can't end soon enough... Thanks for paying us a visit Bob. I read you sometimes in your regional thread. Merry Christmas if you celebrate...Happy New Year otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 I thought the weeklies were puzzling. They have a decent PNA, but the changes from Thursday were nina like. More SE ridging and cooler Canada. Almost wants to get back to gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 The long range pattern looks okay in my eyes. Not bad.. not great... I think we’ll have our chances but I definitely wouldn’t call it full steam ahead, at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I thought the weeklies were puzzling. They have a decent PNA, but the changes from Thursday were nina like. More SE ridging and cooler Canada. Almost wants to get back to gradient. Oh no, I thought they were good earlier?, well Scott and everyone else Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays to all and your families, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I thought the weeklies were puzzling. They have a decent PNA, but the changes from Thursday were nina like. More SE ridging and cooler Canada. Almost wants to get back to gradient. You actually want some but not much ridging or you risk the storms down stream sliding east northeast off the coasline instead of northeast off the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 13 minutes ago, Greg said: You actually want some but not much ridging or you risk the storms down stream sliding east northeast off the coasline instead of northeast off the coastline. The whole thing is just weird. Looks like it wants to be nina. No -NAO too on week 3. Week 4 has some. The look itself is pretty good, but the changes were interesting that’s all. Verbatim it would be good. Note: I’m not trying to bring weenies down lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I thought the weeklies were puzzling. They have a decent PNA, but the changes from Thursday were nina like. More SE ridging and cooler Canada. Almost wants to get back to gradient. Bring it. I want winter storm watches up before the winter storm warnings are cancelled (a la 2007-2008). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The whole thing is just weird. Looks like it wants to be nina. No -NAO too on week 3. Week 4 has some. The look itself is pretty good, but the changes were interesting that’s all. Verbatim it would be good. Note: I’m not trying to bring weenies down lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Maybe a couple of inches on the GFS for NYE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Bah humbug I tell you! The winter of 18-19 is all a bunch of HUMBUG! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 9 hours ago, moneypitmike said: I wonder what percentage of this board have absolutely no clue as to who that is. Jeff Bezos'.... brother? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 37 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Jeff Bezos'.... brother? Given Telly Savales’s age more like his father. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Merry Christmas, Weenies!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 Merry Christmas everyone. Stay safe today and may you all open a gift with a d10 blizzard inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Merry Christmas everyone. Stay safe today and may you all open a gift with a d10 blizzard inside. That's the "Secret Santa" gift from James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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