December Discussion II

[CT Valley Snowman]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not meaning to sound like a whiner, but I haven’t had a 20” event since 2011, yet have done pretty well as far as getting AN snowfall 5 out of 7 years since that woeful season.

Nickels can add up...   add in a few dimes and we can make a season.

While skunking December is not ideal it is not critical

I would have thought you did better than 20" in 2013 Blizzard Nemo

[dryslot]

6 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

Some expect 20" storms a couple times a month, we've been spoiled the last few years.

That is a very high bar for expectations for anyone, If that's what is expected, Then be ready for a lot of disappointment, 20" plus storms just don't happen that often up here anyways but do see many in the 12"+ range which to me is more realistic to achieve.

[moneypitmike]

It's been very sucky in GC for big events since Rocktober.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

20 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

I would have thought you did better than 20" in 2013 Blizzard Nemo

He must have, I was 22" in a much less favorable location. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

21 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

I would have thought you did better than 20" in 2013 Blizzard Nemo

Nope.   I think I wound up with 16” from that (need to did it up).  A solid storm

[HoarfrostHubb]

8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

He must have, I was 22" in a much less favorable location. 

Nope. North Central areas in MA were a bit lower.  Worcester did well though

 

edit...lots of high totals around me, but maybe I was at 19”?  Fitchburg got 30”, and the guy who reported that is very reliable.  Royalston was 18”...but I know I didn’t get 20...

[EastonSN+]

While GFS has a cutter, FV3 has this! Battle of the American models.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

It's been very sucky in GC for big events since Rocktober.

Glad we don’t live there. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

While GFS has a cutter, FV3 has this! Battle of the American models.

Looks like euro.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Looks like euro.

Nice to see it has support. Serious question - is the following long range image from the GEFS a negative or positive EPO? The PNA is def positive.

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Nice to see it has support. Serious question - is the following long range image from the GEFS a negative or positive EPO? The PNA is def positive.

That’s an EPO kissing pna to me.  EPO moving further east makes it better for us.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah that is prob a slightly negative EPO but a solidly positive PNA. Good combo. 

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Glad we don’t live there. 

It's surprising to me that GC hasn't done that well in big events...I have to go look at their totals but 2 of the last 3 March's have had very large interior snowstorms in adjacent VT (max amounts over 30", including 30-spot at BTV).  Maybe they just maxed out a bit north of GC but usually if VT does well, so does he.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

That’s an EPO kissing pna to me.  EPO moving further east makes it better for us.

Did the EPS look as good for the same period?

[weathafella]

So now because people haven’t seen 20 in a while winter sucks?   2010-11 was a great winter...nothing over 20 in most of SNE.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Did the EPS look as good for the same period?

EPS stops at 360.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

It's surprising to me that GC hasn't done that well in big events...I have to go look at their totals but 2 of the last 3 March's have had very large interior snowstorms in adjacent VT (max amounts over 30", including 30-spot at BTV).  Maybe they just maxed out a bit north of GC but usually if VT does well, so does he.

There's a huge weenie band in one of the March events that set up just west of him. He probably was choking on exhaust. That can be the perils of the most outer fronto band. It can sometimes be thin and have exhaust on each side of it. 

[EastonSN+]

Talk about an MJO spike.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So now because people haven’t seen 20 in a while winter sucks?   2010-11 was a great winter...nothing over 20 in most of SNE.

10/11 was the last winter I experienced 18”+ with two events reaching 24”. Following October was obviously great with 16” but that’s it. Nothing since then over 14”. It’s been all nickels and dimes here several big deflating busts. 

[Ginx snewx]

34 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Nope. North Central areas in MA were a bit lower.  Worcester did well though

 

edit...lots of high totals around me, but maybe I was at 19”?  Fitchburg got 30”, and the guy who reported that is very reliable.  Royalston was 18”...but I know I didn’t get 20...

HUNCHIE your post from Feb 13

19.5" was my report here.... Very hard to get a good measurement. Higher drifts, then areas down to like 12"

Not a bad storm here, but def not earth shatterin

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

10/11 was the last winter I experienced 18”+ with two events reaching 24”. Following October was obviously great with 16” but that’s it. Nothing since then over 14”. It’s been all nickels and dimes here several big deflating busts. 

Someone would have drop-kicked you for this back in the early 1990s...lol. Your area had prob gone 6-7 years without a 14" snowstorm at that point. We've def become spoiled with the 18+ recently. 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

10/11 was the last winter I experienced 18”+ with two events reaching 24”. Following October was obviously great with 16” but that’s it. Nothing since then over 14”. It’s been all nickels and dimes here several big deflating busts. 

What’s your areas climo?   Nearer the ocean it’s easier to get 20+ but seasonal totals are probably less than yours.

[Go Kart Mozart]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Talk about an MJO spike.

Literally off the charts, lol.  Let's see that kind of amplitude move into phase 7.  Might be timed just about right for a 1/20/19 explosion of winter?  Where have I heard that prediction?

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Someone would have drop-kicked you for this back in the early 1990s...lol. Your area had prob gone 6-7 years without a 14" snowstorm at that point. We've def become spoiled with the 18+ recently. 

Whats amazing is I lived literally 15 miles south of his old location and had 22 for NEMO. Huge north south gradient. Agreed since then had experienced only 1 12+ storm in 2014, and even though a ton of snow no 12 plus since I moved to Easton, albeit several 11.5 storm (can't make this up, half inch away on a bunch of storms).

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

HUNCHIE your post from Feb 13

19.5" was my report here.... Very hard to get a good measurement. Higher drifts, then areas down to like 12"

Not a bad storm here, but def not earth shatterin

Dang.  I was meh-ing a 19+” event.      What a weenie.   Nice job finding that

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

What’s your areas climo?   Nearer the ocean it’s easier to get 20+ but seasonal totals are probably less than yours.

I can attest to this which is correct, inland coastal CT will average more snow per year mainly do to longer changeover times from SWFE, however during storms like 2016 the sound provides extra moisture and the gradient can be large. For instance NEMO had 22 in Norwalk and I believe 12 in Danbury. That's only approx 15 miles.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Whats amazing is I lived literally 15 miles south of his old location and had 22 for NEMO. Huge north south gradient. Agreed since then had experienced only 1 12+ storm in 2014, and even though a ton of snow no 12 plus since I moved to Easton, albeit several 11.5 storm (can't make this up, half inch away on a bunch of storms).

I am Northeast of you Easton in Southington ...and we had 33 inches in Feb 13(Nemo), and have done well here with many 14-18 inches over the last 10-15 years.  That first Jan 2011 storm dropped 22 here and the second one was 18 plus.  Amazing how small distances can make such a difference. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I am Northeast of you Easton in Southington ...and we had 33 inches in Feb 13, and have done well here with many 14-18 inches over the last 10-15 years.  That first Jan 2011 storm dropped 22 here and the second one was 18 plus.  Amazing how small distances can make such a difference. 

I was in Norwalk at the time, agreed on the amazing difference in short distances. First Jan storm received 16 and second 18 in Norwalk in 2011. Being East is definately an advantage save miller A's that ride too close to the coast.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Someone would have drop-kicked you for this back in the early 1990s...lol. Your area had prob gone 6-7 years without a 14" snowstorm at that point. We've def become spoiled with the 18+ recently. 

Deff agree lol. But this also means, west zones are behind the recent curve/spike of big events. Could just be a relatively small sample size and variance eventually evens out.. This area certainly hasn’t lacked qpf second half of the year....just need it continue through March but not 80s style where the cold comes after the moisture. 

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Dang.  I was meh-ing a 19+” event.      What a weenie.   Nice job finding that

Um there is more

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Posted February 9, 2013

Snowblowing done. Most shoveling done. Will do the back deck someday...

Did more measuring. Avg of 21.5" friends across town got 25" drifting makes it hard.