40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The problem is people see "pattern change" and automatically assume it's February 2015 or January 2011. It has become like pulling teeth to try and explain that a pattern change from an AK vortex to a -EPO where the cold dumps west first is a difference for the better but it still leaves us plenty susceptible to cutters...we can score in the new pattern but we're completely at the mercy of the atmospheric chaos in the northern stream. We can explain it a million times but as soon as that cutter shows up, there's always a vocal contingent that gets unhinged. Write..crap shoot. We've gone from no chance, to chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Anybody have any thoughts on the eruption of Krakatoa? Devastating tsunami , ash to 55 k, SOI unknown , still blowing up. Unsure if the dust is ejected into the strat for a trip around the globe. VEI number would be telling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Where is this transition push back crap coming from? Its the unrealistic and misinformed perceptions that are pushed. The anticipated seasonal progression has been the same since last fall. So a few weeks ago I remember saying post 12/25 for a better look. Indeed we have a better look vs the last few weeks, but I also said the nuances in the flow just cannot be determined so we broad brush it by saying better look. I think some meant all systems go. When people like Kevin keep ignoring all the well thought out posts and throw shit against the wall with things like “no cutter” and “12/20 onward for change,” it misinforms people. The fact of the matter is we have forcing for a building -EPO, but as Will and I said....the cold may dump west first and form warmer solutions for us. That’s what is happening. However, both ensembles and op runs have wintry chances until we get more of a +PNA. So while we may have a cutter or two, we will have some winter moments hopefully. I wasn’t kidding with 2014 analogy. It does seem like we have a better look after the first week of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: Probably one of your better traits besides the obvious meteorological background you possess is your skill level in the art of fanning the flames. I joke around, but when I see some really bad posts...it’s all systems go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The problem is people see "pattern change" and automatically assume it's February 2015 or January 2011. It has become like pulling teeth to try and explain that a pattern change from an AK vortex to a -EPO where the cold dumps west first is a difference for the better but it still leaves us plenty susceptible to cutters...we can score in the new pattern but we're completely at the mercy of the atmospheric chaos in the northern stream. We can explain it a million times but as soon as that cutter shows up, there's always a vocal contingent that gets unhinged. It’s funny if this is always the legit assumption I don’t believe anyone thought anything remotely Feb 2015 or Jan 2011, was on horizon. Is it assumed that if someone understands the pattern blows they won’t complain that a pattern that blows sucks , even by some magical power to be able to be smiling while they do. Seems more people just over-react TO negative posts during crap periods (even when the poster understands the patterns limitations and risks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: So a few weeks ago I remember saying post 12/25 for a better look. Indeed we have a better look vs the last few weeks, but I also said the nuances in the flow just cannot be determined so we broad brush it by saying better look. I think some meant all systems go. When people like Kevin keep ignoring all the well thought out posts and throw shit against the wall with things like “no cutter” and “12/20 onward for change,” it misinforms people. The fact of the matter is we have forcing for a building -EPO, but as Will and I said....the cold may dump west first and form warmer solutions for us. That’s what is happening. However, both ensembles and op runs have wintry chances until we get more of a +PNA. So while we may have a cutter or two, we will have some winter moments hopefully. I wasn’t kidding with 2014 analogy. It does seem like we have a better look after the first week of Jan. This December has gone exactly as I had anticipated...and I mean that. Both meteorologically and psychologically. 2014 is a nice general analog, but this December was better....we just didn't cash in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: lol im a stickler for accurate snowfall climo regardless of the pattern. Of course, snowfall climo is established with the inclusion of the both the stars and the duds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: This December has gone exactly as I had anticipated...and I mean that. Both meteorologically and psychologically. 2014 is a nice general analog, but this December was better....we just didn't cash in. lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 I agree with Will should be auto inserted into some people’s posts. Lol Looks like we are pretty much on the cusp of snow season, right on schedule including a pretty solid chance at a White Christmas. If you want to contribute here you have to understand who is a condescending contributor and who is contributing solid ideas. Will and Brian have forever been the 2 Mets who seem to have the best grasp on patterns, threats and now cast discussion. Ray certainly has proven his grasp of seasonal prediction is layers above most anyone here. I suggest if you want to learn here pay close attention to these 3 guys, they will steer you right. Best to ignore the noise and condescending attitude peeps. Putting yourself on a pedestal while making holier than thou posts brings this forum down. Sure some posters need reminders of science and posting style but it’s been sad that some professionals think it’s their position to belittle others while sticking their chests out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 ACATT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: ACATT I agree with Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I agree with Will When we all agree, it should tell you something. By saying agree, it means you have a team of Mets in the same page and hopefully some people can have confidence in what is being posted. I say that all the time when I agree with ideas. I said that to Ray yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 By the way, if one were to loop the northern hemisphere 500 anomalies, you’ll see how a gradual east shift in the ridging from EPAC to the coast of North America also shifts the trough east towards the East Coast. A very simple, but telling loop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: When we all agree, it should tell you something. By saying agree, it means you have a team of Mets in the same page and hopefully some people can have confidence in what is being posted. I say that all the time when I agree with ideas. I said that to Ray yesterday. I agree with Will , peeps do the panic dance prior to every seasonal epoch. Don’t know who the we is you speak of. Merry White Christmas to you and yours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I agree with Will , peeps do the panic dance prior to every seasonal epoch. Don’t know who the we is you speak of. Merry White Christmas to you and yours. We, is speaking in general. There was no personal tone. Even though you told me to eff off, I still love me some Ginxy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The problem is people see "pattern change" and automatically assume it's February 2015 or January 2011. It has become like pulling teeth to try and explain that a pattern change from an AK vortex to a -EPO where the cold dumps west first is a difference for the better but it still leaves us plenty susceptible to cutters...we can score in the new pattern but we're completely at the mercy of the atmospheric chaos in the northern stream. We can explain it a million times but as soon as that cutter shows up, there's always a vocal contingent that gets unhinged. Well to some it doesn't matter if the pattern changes...they need sensible changes. It either snows or it doesn't. And if it rains from a cutter, it doesn't matter if the entire hemisphere changed orientation, it's still rain thus no pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We, is speaking in general. There was no personal tone. Even though you told me to eff off, I still love me some Ginxy. Oh ok. Thought we was Kevin style. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Pitchers and catchers 6 weeks just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Well to some it doesn't matter if the pattern changes...they need sensible changes. It either snows or it doesn't. And if it rains from a cutter, it doesn't matter if the entire hemisphere changed orientation, it's still rain thus no pattern change. Put me squarely in that camp. I could give a rat's ass how favorable December's pattern was. Jack schitt is Jack schitt. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Having Boston snowfall at a trace with it being December 23rd, nuff said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, kdxken said: Put me squarely in that camp. I could give a rat's ass how favorable December's pattern was. Jack schitt is Jack schitt. I agree, but it matters as far as diagnosing a pattern as favorable or unfavorable. In the future, I'd prefer a Dec 2018 composite to 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 16 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Well to some it doesn't matter if the pattern changes...they need sensible changes. It either snows or it doesn't. And if it rains from a cutter, it doesn't matter if the entire hemisphere changed orientation, it's still rain thus no pattern change. People ask about the pattern bc they want snow...I don't know that the perils of this pattern could have been articulated any more clearly than they were. The cold is there, but it dumps west, so we need good timing to avoid cutters. Its been said over and over that the very favorable period is later in Jan and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 We had a super cold and snowy November, so the rest of winter is going to be poop..... it's that simple. Blew our load too early. Sure there's years that were exceptions but on the whole if you have a cold snowy fall then you have a ratter winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 9 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Having Boston snowfall at a trace with it being December 23rd, nuff said Hey, it’s 0.1 for the season (though that’s bogus given the measurements debacle in November. 2014 was similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: We had a super cold and snowy November, so the rest of winter is going to be poop..... it's that simple. Blew our load too early. Sure there's years that were exceptions but on the whole if you have a cold snowy fall then you have a ratter winter. Evidence please. I am pretty sure that cold snowy November has a good correlation to similar winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 13 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Having Boston snowfall at a trace with it being December 23rd, nuff said Fake news when most have 2–12” on the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Man this place is a cesspool. Good god. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Man this place is a cesspool. Good god. That kid has been allowed to troll in our threads for awhile. Doesn’t even live anywhere near NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That kid has been allowed to troll in our threads for awhile. Doesn’t even live anywhere near NE Is Connecticut NE, I live two miles from the border. Just wondering. I'm also not a "kid" and I have been on these forums since wright weather 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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