December Discussion II

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Canadian also has next weekends torching cutter. 

 

[SnoSki14]

Really ugly model runs last night. Euro/EPS gearing up for a nice big eastern ridge to start the new year with multiple cutters. 

[CoastalWx]

It’s the EPO. Until it moves east it will be cutter potential. That looks to happen after the first week of Jan. To be honest that’s how it looked for awhile despite people not wanting to hear it. The good news is that some winter threats appear to be mixed in as well. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Really ugly model runs last night. Euro/EPS gearing up for a nice big eastern ridge to start the new year with multiple cutters. 

Excellent, a unanimous decision.

A few days of cool

but don't play the fool

because then we warm, we rain

some posters go insane

depression becomes rage

then

Ray says, we turn the page! 

[Damage In Tolland]

Glad we don’t live in NYC or NJ . In NE we snow 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s the EPO. Until it moves east it will be cutter potential. That looks to happen after the first week of Jan. To be honest that’s how it looked for awhile despite people not wanting to hear it. The good news is that some winter threats appear to be mixed in as well. 

This coming Friday and New Year's were wintery threats too.

[moneypitmike]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Glad we don’t live in NYC or NJ . In NE we snow 

How's that locked-in ice storm coming along for you?

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

How's that locked-in ice storm coming along for you?

Pretty good actually .especially north of Pike 

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

How's that locked-in ice storm coming along for you?

Lol...dude you might need to step away for a while, you’re in full Meltdown mode this morning! 

 

But ya his ice storm idea was always a joke...notice the twist this morning already...now it’s the NNE ice storm...which ain’t happening either lol. 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

The euro actually did come in flatter last night but it needs a little more still to become more wintry. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Lol...dude you might need to step away for a while, you’re in full Meltdown mode this morning! 

 

But ya his ice storm idea was always a joke...notice the twist this morning already...now it’s the NNE ice storm...which ain’t happening either lol. 

 

 

MPM melts aren't really that notable. His baseline posting style is melting so it's kind of background noise. 

[moneypitmike]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

MPM melts aren't really that notable. His baseline posting style is melting so it's kind of background noise. 

Just getting it out of my system now.  Happy my mud's frozen in any case.

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

MPM melts aren't really that notable. His baseline posting style is melting so it's kind of background noise. 

I mean his avatar pretty much says it all.

[qg_omega]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s the EPO. Until it moves east it will be cutter potential. That looks to happen after the first week of Jan. To be honest that’s how it looked for awhile despite people not wanting to hear it. The good news is that some winter threats appear to be mixed in as well. 

Not seeing the winter threats mixed in not do I see this magic New year's day target where the pattern "flips".  I do not trust long range NAO modeling and the Pacific is not serviceable.  Think we need more posts about the SSW....

[SnoSki14]

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Glad we don’t live in NYC or NJ . In NE we snow 

Unless you live in Maine, it don't look too good. 

Could see a secondary wave materialize in between the next two cutters but other than that it's a brutal pattern. Folks were way too quick with the pattern change. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Unless you live in Maine, it don't look too good. 

Could see a secondary wave materialize in between the next two cutters but other than that it's a brutal pattern. Folks were way too quick with the pattern change. 

The change is here. There’s multiple winter events in New England modeled over the next 7-10 days. Some  all white. Some mixes to rain . It’s already starting 

[dendrite]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

The change is here. There’s multiple winter events in New England modeled over the next 7-10 days. Some  all white. Some mixes to rain . It’s already starting 

With the migraine gone, I can see your thinly veiled defense mechanisms this morning. There's a slight sense of nervousness in your posts. If it ends up cold/snowy, well you held course and knew it all along. But the longer this relaxation goes, the more the melt will come out.

Anyway, the LR doesn't look too bad to me for our region. Nothing great, nothing piss poor. If everything goes right, we end up wintry. If everything goes wrong, we end up with mostly rain. Chances are we'll have some hits and misses. It just doesn't look like much of a pack building stretch over the next couple weeks. So in the end, I guess I agree with you even though what I said sounds vague and seems to cover all of the bases.

[powderfreak]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The euro actually did come in flatter last night but it needs a little more still to become more wintry. 

Yeah close enough now that run was Advisory level event for snow to ice in NNE... and that heavier axis of snow is close enough just to the north in Quebec that it's still worth paying attention to.  

Long way out.  

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

With the migraine gone, I can see your thinly veiled defense mechanisms this morning. There's a slight sense of nervousness in your posts. If it ends up cold/snowy, well you held course and knew it all along. But the longer this relaxation goes, the more the melt will come out.

Anyway, the LR doesn't look too bad to me for our region. Nothing great, nothing piss poor. If everything goes right, we end up wintry. If everything goes wrong, we end up with mostly rain. Chances are we'll have some hits and misses. It just doesn't look like much of a pack building stretch over the next couple weeks. So in the end, I guess I agree with you even though what I said sounds vague and seems to cover all of the bases.

Your first paragraph is Completely spot on.  

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Not seeing the winter threats mixed in not do I see this magic New year's day target where the pattern "flips".  I do not trust long range NAO modeling and the Pacific is not serviceable.  Think we need more posts about the SSW....

You're trying too hard now. It looks forced. Maybe take a little break. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

With the migraine gone, I can see your thinly veiled defense mechanisms this morning. There's a slight sense of nervousness in your posts. If it ends up cold/snowy, well you held course and knew it all along. But the longer this relaxation goes, the more the melt will come out.

Anyway, the LR doesn't look too bad to me for our region. Nothing great, nothing piss poor. If everything goes right, we end up wintry. If everything goes wrong, we end up with mostly rain. Chances are we'll have some hits and misses. It just doesn't look like much of a pack building stretch over the next couple weeks. So in the end, I guess I agree with you even though what I said sounds vague and seems to cover all of the bases.

I have had migraines since I was 15. It starts with the aura.. the vision is blurry and partially blind for 20-30 minutes with the wavy lines. Then the headache kicks in . I used to get nausea and would vomit during some of them.I’ve been to neurologists and drs and have found some medication that helps kill the pain after several hours. As I’ve gotten older, they’ve lessened in intensity. You outgrow them slowly as you get into your 50’s. I’ve found for me the trigger is strong HP building in . Another words high barometric pressure. It does something to the blood vessels in the brain which triggers it for me. In fact, I just had one this past week with that big ,cold high on Tuesday. There’s not a worse feeling in the world than when that aura hits. You know you’re done. 

[moneypitmike]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The change is here. There’s multiple winter events in New England modeled over the next 7-10 days. Some a minor event that's all white. Some  one possible rainer that starts as snow, and a rainer.  mixes to rain . It’s already starting 

 

[moneypitmike]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

With the migraine gone, I can see your thinly veiled defense mechanisms this morning. There's a slight sense of nervousness in your posts. If it ends up cold/snowy, well you held course and knew it all along. But the longer this relaxation goes, the more the melt will come out.

Anyway, the LR doesn't look too bad to me for our region. Nothing great, nothing piss poor. If everything goes right, we end up wintry. If everything goes wrong, we end up with mostly rain. Chances are we'll have some hits and misses. It just doesn't look like much of a pack building stretch over the next couple weeks. So in the end, I guess I agree with you even though what I said sounds vague and seems to cover all of the bases.

Your entire comment must be read within the context that you have a dramatically different reality than SNE.

[CoastalWx]

This is what happens when you have unreasonable expectations with long range voodoo. Some of you need to have some rum and eggnog and take a break.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

This is what happens when you have unreasonable expectations with long range voodoo. Some of you need to have some rum and eggnog and take a break.

I'd like to keep this post in mind when the dozen people who are still holding are are posting about weeklies on January 7th for the "end of the month".  I suspect you won't be among the dozen.  

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I'd like to keep this post in mind when the dozen people who are still holding are are posting about weeklies on January 7th for the "end of the month".  I suspect you won't be among the dozen.  

I feel confident after the first week. Are we getting 80” in a month, likely no...but that should be a better time for awhile.

[dendrite]

28 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Your entire comment must be read within the context that you have a dramatically different reality than SNE.

I don't totally agree. We could get a gradient storm that maxes out over interior SNE. I mean, we're going into freakin January. Above normal is still cold enough for snow.

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is what happens when you have unreasonable expectations with long range voodoo. Some of you need to have some rum and eggnog and take a break.

I still believe in the torque fairy.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm actually a little less optimistic for winter weather enthusiasm than any "... Some winter threats appear mixed in at times..." conciliatory rationalism offers - that'll prolly make sure this collection of lucid and objective engagers won't read any further ...huh.

I would never say probability is zero - that's just not the way of atmospheric vagaries. In fact, the 1:1 correlation coefficients that exists between claiming and failing, that science for some reason never actually has formally papered ... will make sure to point that out in the most insidious way it can relative to all observers. 

Here's how that works: It's quite analogous to the electron double-split experiments - perhaps you've heard of them?  

...Okay, never mind ... just know that in advance Physics, it has been shown via attempts to empirically witness fundamental particles of nature, that one cannot simultaneously observe the atmospheric kosmic dildo, while simultaneously measuring its momentum, ... because of the uncertainty principle.  Yes...this quantum mechanical exertion of concealing the real intent of nature, cannot in fact conceal the fact that nature is concealing that intent - we call this, a paradox. Whether talking about virtual particle trajectories of sub-atomic Baryonic particles... or integrating the infinite number of them to formulate the maelstrom majesty of the entire atmosphere ... at either dimension that means that the time it takes to make the observation, the object of the observation has already moved.  So, that means taking this to logic end ... all of reality must be intrinsically designed so that you don't get to know the truth. Moreover, the designer is eternally blessed with entertainment while it watches you writhe ultimate failing the fight to find it. You only get to see the outcomes... See how that works?   That way some creepy weirdism shy of actually calling it a super-natural force reserves the right, at all times, to alter reality away from the winter storm(heat wave) sure bets weather forecasts ...   

Creative writing aside ... there are no absolutes.  Even in the worst of times, some-thing may eek out an anomalous presence. This business is really all about juggling probabilities relative to favorable pattern regimes. It's not as complicating as that may sound ... to any, tech-numbed emoji-based e-zombies.  When this sort of -PNAP pattern is opposite, with more negative departures situated east ...while there is a more neutral geopotential medium southeast/Florida ... those probabilities in those eras go the other way - it's not 100%.   When there is a preponderance of elevated geopotential heights over the GOM and adjacent southwest Atlantic Basin ... Caribbean, you probabilities for incurring a winter storm is lower - it's not zero. This latter version is our plight until further notice. 

I see the probabilities right now as heavily sloped against what y'all want, and heavily sloped in favor of a coveting trolls that lurk.  For those...this is a snipe heaven... drive by shooter's gallery.  Moderators of the Lord Of The Flies internet forum need to actually do their jobs and cut some access testicle off until this two week stint finally alleviates naturally.  ...oops, hopefully I'm not one of them...

Seriously, not much changed since I started this thread.  People are heavily referencing the EPS ... My basis for formulating the SE ridge/bad pattern intoned statements were rooted in the GEFs.. I said then, they do fine...provided the user knows how to use them.  Well - so far...feeling pretty vindicated.  Which, unfortunately doesn't help your cause... because now, both the GEFs and EPS are targeting your butt cheeks for contusions.

Ha... oy ...  One thing I find interesting... it makes me wonder if this is really that relaxation... Maybe the EPS mean, in its own inimitable way was merely rushing that in before... Ironically ... just as collectively, some users seem to also rush the world through SE ridge pattern... which technically, hasn't even occurred. It was supposed to be Xmass through the first week of January ... Tenor in here comes off like denial or evasiveness to that which is still likely to still occur - not absolutely of course.  

 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I don't totally agree. We could get a gradient storm that maxes out over interior SNE. I mean, we're going into freakin January. Above normal is still cold enough for snow.

I'm not convinced your headaches are totally subsided. You're trying to reason with Mr Melt himself...tells me your judgement is still a little iffy.