December Discussion II

[Damage In Tolland]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

For Maine? 

SNE . Snows in Maine 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't think your gradient pattern will work out for you either. 

I think Fairfield south to your area is not somewhere we want to live 

[moneypitmike]

41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The 28th is a virtual lock ice storm 

LOL--locking in anything 7 days out is a hoot.  Locking in something as tenuous as ice?  

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't think your gradient pattern will work out for you either. 

There's just winners and losers; don't get caught on the wrong side of that line.  Sometimes gradients favor CNE and NNE.  

[ORH_wxman]

I would prob wait until at least Sunday and then check back in to see what the 28th system looks like. It's 7 days out. 12/23 last year looked like a torching cutter until about 3-4 days out. I remember me, Scooter, and Jerry were all talking at the GTG and we said "it is still a cutter but honestly if you looked at the 72 hour panel, you'd think a big overrunning event was in store 24 hours later"...literally the very next cycle the thing trended way more CAD. That's often how that stuff works. 

You just have to wait until closer in on these sometimes. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t agree. What PV split into Europe? Up here we don’t need -15F departures for snow. 

He is the worst poster on the board right now...and that is saying something.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We are completely done with cutters like today . 100%

 

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The 28th is a virtual lock ice storm 

I love when we get to this point of a winter and the KFS is just trying so hard to force winter on the people.

It always takes longer than the KFS model thinks but it's usually not denied.  Time to stand up and Preach.  The congregation will start to pay attention.

[Typhoon Tip]

I just meant the pattern look favorable for ice from Christmas until the first week of January with the South East Ridge and the northern Jets s Canada. 

It's Not worth it to focus on anything specific

[CoastalWx]

42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would prob wait until at least Sunday and then check back in to see what the 28th system looks like. It's 7 days out. 12/23 last year looked like a torching cutter until about 3-4 days out. I remember me, Scooter, and Jerry were all talking at the GTG and we said "it is still a cutter but honestly if you looked at the 72 hour panel, you'd think a big overrunning event was in store 24 hours later"...literally the very next cycle the thing trended way more CAD. That's often how that stuff works. 

You just have to wait until closer in on these sometimes. 

Ha yep. I remember that. Best ice event I’ve seen. Pretty special. 

[CoastalWx]

Well maybe feb 95 beat that but its close. 

[ORH_wxman]

51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I just meant the pattern look favorable for ice from Christmas until the first week of January with the South East Ridge and the northern Jets s Canada. 

It's Not worth it to focus on anything specific

I wasn't referring to your post when I said don't look at things until Sunday. You were musing the general pattern versus that specific event. Kevin was locking in an ice storm 7 days out...that's really what I was responding to and probably should h e quoted the post.  

[powderfreak]

Not good trends for the 28/29th on the GFS and GGEM.  Definitely trending more towards the Euro cutter idea, than wedging and secondary development.

[CoastalWx]

The cutter seems inevitable. GFS with the headfake, but in its defense...that was far enough out where all models have that headfake. We may go through a 2014 period as I said earlier with a mix of a little snow and maybe a cutter or two. Next week could start as a little snow or mix, but probably gets mild and turns to rain for many. Still time to get a more CAD solution..but seems like a liquid scenario is inevitable. 

Massive changes again to the good later in the 11-15 day. You can see how the run to run adjustments are likely due to Pacific reshuffling and the vortex split in the stratosphere.

[CoastalWx]

Canadian seems to offer the best solution.

[moneypitmike]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The cutter seems inevitable. GFS with the headfake, but in its defense...that was far enough out where all models have that headfake. We may go through a 2014 period as I said earlier with a mix of a little snow and maybe a cutter or two. Next week could start as a little snow or mix, but probably gets mild and turns to rain for many. Still time to get a more CAD solution..but seems like a liquid scenario is inevitable. 

Massive changes again to the good later in the 11-15 day. You can see how the run to run adjustments are likely due to Pacific reshuffling and the vortex split in the stratosphere.

What a crap month (4-weeks) we will have had.  

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

What a crap month (4-weeks) we will have had.  

Yeah. That's been my issue with this winter. December has blown..really since Thanksgiving or so. Missed opportunities. Sometimes that happens..it is what it is. I'd accept it if we had the typical GOAK trough that makes it more mild..but we had some bad luck. That looks to change somewhat. Bigger changes probably in Jan.

[JBinStoughton]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

What a crap month (4-weeks) we will have had.  

Forfeited month #1 and counting. 

[CoastalWx]

Here come the melts.

[WinterWolf]

25 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

Forfeited month #1 and counting. 

First flake to last Flake JB!!  Patience!!  There’s a reason why March is snowier than December...and that's cuz winter is only 12 hours old...

 

dont get get caught up in this MET Winter nonsense...some of our Absolute best winters have crap Decembers...(2010-2011,2014-2015).

 

Would you like it better if December was good, but then January and February(the heart of winter) completely sucked??  Would that be better???  Not in my opinion it wouldn’t.   If things change around...this December will be forgotten about faster than A Hobo goes after a Ham sandwich!   

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

First flake to last Flake JB!!  Patience!!  There’s a reason why March is snowier than December...and that's cuz winter is only 12 hours old...

 

dont get get caught up in this MET Winter nonsense...some of our Absolute best winters have crap Decembers...(2010-2011,2014-2015).

 

Woukf you like it better if December was good, but then January and February(the heart of winter) completely sucked??  Would that be better???  Not in my opinion it wouldn’t.   If things change around...this December will be forgotten about faster than A Hobo goes after a Ham sandwich!   

If course one could have a great November and the a crappy d-m.  

[JBinStoughton]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

If things change around.

Of course a rip-roarin’ J-M would make all of our winter worries go away. I just hope this doesn’t become a will-should-could-didn’t kinda winter. The threat of a head fake is what worries me.  But of course we’ll see. It’s just that this has been one of the more promising collective winter forecasts in a long while and it would really sting to watch it duck and bob till April. 

[WinterWolf]

It’s always possible Mike...anything can happen?? No guarantees. 

 

But there are some very encouraging signals setting up for the near future...let’s be an optimist and look towards that side of things huh. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

Of course a rip-roarin’ J-M would make all of our winter worries go away. I just hope this doesn’t become a will-should-could-didn’t kinda winter. The threat of a head fake is what worries me.  But of course we’ll see. 

I think we’re gonna get our chances.  If we whiff on most all of them...then we all can say the winter was a (woulda coulda shoulda) total dud.

 

Winter is 12 hours old...lots and lots of time(literally a whole Winter season to be exact) to see what does and doesn’t play out, and that’s a fact!  

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

Of course a rip-roarin’ J-M would make all of our winter worries go away. I just hope this doesn’t become a will-should-could-didn’t kinda winter. The threat of a head fake is what worries me.  But of course we’ll see. It’s just that this has been one of the more promising collective winter forecasts in a long while and it would really sting to watch it duck and bob till April. 

Long range is voodoo. Nobody should always buy all in to winter. While the signs point to a good one...little nuances that dictate luck simply cannot be determined. So one should always approach it with a reasonable expectation.

[WinterWolf]

Perfectly Put Scott.  And there it is in a nutshell.   

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Perfectly Put Scott.  And there it is in a nutshell.   

I always cringe at how confident we think we are at times. The big picture is that the ENSO State we have is favorable for us. But a place like Logan could get 50” or 100” and that depends on luck. That’s a hell of a variance, so it’s worth putting that into perspective. 

[EastonSN+]

This is what I dream of:

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Here come the melts.

No need to have any meltdowns right now

Pattern is going as planned

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is what I dream of:

That model has had some good long range porn lately.

[WinterWolf]

Hey that’s only two weeks away...no reason why that scenario won’t play out just like that...lmao

 

That is one gorgeous model run that is for sure!!  

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I always cringe at how confident we think we are at times. The big picture is that the ENSO State we have is favorable for us. But a place like Logan could get 50” or 100” and that depends on luck. That’s a hell of a variance, so it’s worth putting that into perspective. 

Well, Logan getting 50" doesn't mean much given measurements lol